菜粕菜油月差策略跟进

2026/01/12 More English Reports on【CITIC Futures International Service Platform】https://internationalservice.citicsf.com QualificationNo.F3023159从业资格号InvestmentconsultingNo.Z0013632投资咨询号 QualificationNo.F0254714从业资格号InvestmentconsultingNo.Z0002180投资咨询号 QualificationNo.F03110661从业资格号InvestmentconsultingNo.Z0022137投资咨询号 GuiChenxi桂晨曦CFAPhD WangCongying王聪颖 CONTENT Strategy 策略 1.1 Rapeseed Oil Strategy 菜油策略推荐 ▫Nearterm:Thetightsupplysituationfordomesticrapeseedoilpersists.Short-termsupplyofAustralianrapeseedremainslowandhasnotyetenteredthecrushingprocess,whileimportsofCanadianrapeseedaretemporarilystalled.ImportingrapeseedoilfromRussiaandDubaiiscurrentlyunprofitable,leadingtoacontinueddrawdownindomesticinventories.Itisexpectedthatprocurementwillmainlybedrivenbyessentialdemandfromleadingpackagingcompaniesandtraders.Intermsofinventory,currentlevelsarealreadybelowthoseofthesameperiodlastyear,witharelativelyhighconcentrationofownershiprights,keepingspotpricesandbasisrelativelyfirm. ▫Longterm:Overall,globalsuppliesofsoybeans,rapeseed,andpalmoilappearrelativelyample.However,thepaceofCanadianrapeseedexportsisslow,anddemanddriversfrombiodieselremainunclear,limitingupwardmomentumforrapeseedprices.CanadianPrimeMinisterCarney'svisittoChinaonJanuary13mayhelpfacilitatetherecoveryofrapeseedandrapeseedoiltrade.Theprobabilityofimprovedsupplyinthedomesticmarketgoingforwardisrelativelyhigh.ContinuedattentionshouldbepaidtodevelopmentsinChina-CanadaandChina-Australiarapeseedtrade. ▫Strategy:(1)OI2603-2605spread:Whilespotsupplyistight,expectationsareshiftingtowardeasing;thespreadmayfluctuatewithaweakerbias.(2)OI2605-2609spread:Theprobabilityofincreasedsupplyinthelongertermisrelativelyhigh,presentinganopportunitytoconsiderabearspread(sellingOI2605andbuyingOI2609). ▫Risks:Supplyfallingshortofexpectations,biofuelpolicies,import/exportregulations,macroeconomicfluctuations,andweatherchanges. ▫近端：国内菜油供应紧张的矛盾持续。澳菜籽短期供应偏低，暂未进入压榨，加菜籽进口暂时停滞，俄罗斯、迪拜菜油进口亏损，国内库存持续去化，预计主要以头部包装厂及贸易商维持刚需采购为主。库存方面，库存已经低于去年同期，货权集中度偏高，现货价格和基差相对坚挺。 ▫远端：国际市场大豆，菜籽，棕榈油供应偏宽松，但是加菜籽出口进度缓慢，生物柴油需求驱动不明确，菜籽价格上涨动能不足。加拿大总理卡尼1月13日将访问中国，可能有助于促进菜籽菜油贸易恢复。国内市场后续供应改善的概率较大，继续关注中加，中澳菜籽贸易进展。 ▫策略：（1）OI2603-2605价差：现货紧张但预期转宽，可能震荡偏弱。（2）OI2605-2609价差：远期供应增加的概率较大，可以关注反套机会。 ▫风险因素：供应不及预期，生柴政策，进出口政策，宏观扰动，天气变化。 1.2 Rapeseed Meal Strategy 菜粕策略推荐 Rapeseed production overseas is expected to increase in 2026, leading to a decline in Canadian canola FOB quotations and a reduction in old-crop inventories. In China, both supply and demand for rapeseed are weak. On one hand, strained Sino-Canadian relations have resulted in adecrease in Canadian canola imports, with cumulative imports down 57% YoY. On the other hand, cumulative rapeseed crushing volumes inChina have decreased by 46% YoY, and apparent consumption in downstream markets has dropped by 29% YoY. Rapeseed meal transactionshave also weakened YoY, with cumulative delivery volumes down 47.7% YoY. Chinese rapeseed inventories remain low, while rapeseedmealinventories have fallen from high levels but are currently slightly higher YoY. Despite high livestock inventories, breedingprofits are negative,and the cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal is low, which limits its demand growth. From the perspective of marginal changes, the recent delayimports of Australian rapeseed has spurred an increase in the 5-9 price spread. However, with the current consumption off-season and thelikelihood of increased canola seed imports in the future, the potential for further gains is limited, and the 5-9 price spreadmay decline. Valuation:The entire industry chain is operating at a loss. Importing and crushing rapeseed is unprofitable, and downstream breedingoperations are also suffering losses. The valuation of rapeseed meal is in a relatively moderate range. Strategy:Focus on bear spread trading of rapeseed meal. Short the RM2605-2609 price spread. Risks:Unsmooth imports of Australian rapeseed, reduced overseas rapeseed production, and macroeconomic positives. 基本面：海外菜籽2026年预期增产，加菜籽FOB报价继续下跌，加菜籽旧作库存去化。中国菜籽供需双弱，一方面，中加关系导致中国减少加菜籽进口量，菜籽进口量累计同比下降57%；另一方面，中国菜籽累计压榨量同比下降46%，下游表观消费量累计同比下降29%，菜粕成交同比走低，提货量累计同比下降47.7%。中国菜籽库存维持低位，菜粕库存从高位回落，目前同比略偏高。尽管养殖存栏高企，但养殖利润亏损，菜粕性价比不高，限制菜粕需求增长。从边际变化看，近期澳籽进口延迟，刺激5-9价差走高。不过当前消费淡季，且后续菜籽进口大概率增加，料近月上涨空间有限，5-9价差或回落。 估值：全产业链亏损。进口菜籽压榨亏损，下游养殖亏损。菜粕估值处于相对中等区域。 策略：菜粕反套为主，做空RM2605-2609价差。 风险因素：澳籽进口不顺利，海外菜籽减产，宏观利多 Rapeseed Oil 菜油 2.1Price Spread Review 月差回顾 ▫As of January 7:The price spread between OI2603 and OI2605 is 274 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The price spreadbetween OI2605 and OI2609 is 14 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 29 yuan/ton. ▫截至1月7日：OI2603-2605价差274元/吨，周度环比-50元/吨。OI2605-2609价差14元/吨，周度环比-29元/吨。 2.2 Profit 压榨利润 ▫During the week ending January 2, the weekly rapeseed oil crushing output was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week. Currently, twoshipments of Australian rapeseed have arrived at the port, with market expectations for crushing to commence between January15and 20.O