菜粕菜油月差策略

2025/12/20 More English Reports on【CITIC Futures International Service Platform】https://internationalservice.citicsf.com QualificationNo.F3023159从业资格号InvestmentconsultingNo.Z0013632投资咨询号 QualificationNo.F0254714从业资格号InvestmentconsultingNo.Z0002180投资咨询号 QualificationNo.F03110661从业资格号InvestmentconsultingNo.Z0022137投资咨询号 GuiChenxi桂晨曦CFAPhD WangCongying王聪颖 目录CONTENT Strategy 策略 1.1 Rapeseed Oil Strategy ▫Nearterm:Rapeseedsupplyistightduetotheimpactofimportpolicies.ImportmarginsforCanadiancanolaremaindeeplynegative,whileshort-termsupplyofAustralianrapeseedisrelativelylow,leadingtolimitedrapeseedoiloutputfromoilmills.However,asthefirstshipmentofAustralianrapeseedwassuccessfullyclearedandunloaded,marketsentimenthasweakenedsomewhat,promptingsometraderstolowerpricestooffloadinventory.Rapeseedoilimportsareexpectedtoremainrigid.Currently,theimportmarginforDubairapeseedoilshowsalossofapproximately340yuan/ton,whileRussiahasrelativelyampleexportablevolumes.Itisanticipatedthatmajorpackagingcompaniesandtraderswillmaintainrigidprocurementtomeetessentialdemand,ensuringshort-termsupplyforrigidneeds.Onthedemandside,thepricespreadbetweenrapeseedoilandsoybeanoilisrelativelyhigh,resultinginsloweroveralldeliverypickups.Pre-holidaydemandisexpectedtoseelimitedgrowth.Regardinginventory,thehighconcentrationofownershiprestrictsthedownsideofnear-termprices,makingnarrowpricefluctuationsmorelikely. ▫Longterm:Concernsaboutrapeseedandrapeseedoilsupplystillleaveroomforspeculation,whichmaytriggerareboundfromlowerpricelevelsanddrivetheinter-monthspreadtostrengthen.DevelopmentsinChina-CanadaandChina-Australiarapeseedtradewarrantattention. ▫Strategy:(1)OI2601-2605spread:Maintainabearspreadstrategy,butlimitedupsideisexpectedlater.(2)OI2605-2609spread:Ifsupplytightnessemergeslater,opportunitiesforbullspreadmaywarrantattention. ▫Risks:Supplyfallingshortofexpectations,biofuelpolicies,import/exportregulations,macroeconomicfluctuations,andweatherchanges. ▫近端：进口政策影响下，菜籽供应紧张。加菜籽进口利润维持深度亏损，澳菜籽短期供应偏低，油厂菜油产出量相对有限。但是，随着首船澳菜籽顺利通关卸货，市场情绪转弱，部分贸易商开始降价出货。菜油进口预计维持刚需，目前迪拜菜油进口利润大约亏损340元/吨，俄罗斯可出口量相对充足，预计主要以头部包装厂及贸易商维持刚需采购为主，预计短期可以保持刚需供应。需求方面，菜豆油价差偏高，整体提货偏慢，节前需求预计增幅受限。库存方面，由于货权集中度偏高，限制近端价格下跌幅度，价格窄幅波动概率较大。 ▫远端：菜籽菜油供应顾虑仍存在炒作空间，可能导致价格低位反弹，带动月差走强，关注中加，中澳菜籽贸易进展。 ▫策略：（1）OI2601-2605价差：维持反套思路，但是后期空间有限。（2）OI2605-2609价差：如果后期供应端出现偏紧情况，可以关注正套机会。 This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business. The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constitute▫风险因素：供应不及预期，生柴政策，进出口政策，宏观扰动，天气变化。 1.2 Rapeseed Meal Strategy 菜粕策略推荐 ▫Rapeseedproductionoverseasisexpectedtoincreasein2026,leadingtoadeclineinCanadiancanolaFOBquotationsandareductioninold-cropinventories.InChina,bothsupplyanddemandforrapeseedareweak.Ononehand,strainedSino-CanadianrelationshaveresultedinadecreaseinCanadiancanolaimports,withcumulativeimportsdown42%YoY.Ontheotherhand,cumulativerapeseedcrushingvolumesinChinahavedecreasedby41%YoY,andapparentconsumptionindownstreammarketshasdroppedby25%YoY.RapeseedmealtransactionshavealsoweakenedYoY,withcumulativedeliveryvolumesdown35%YoY.Chineserapeseedinventoriesremainlow,whilerapeseedmealinventorieshavefallenfromhighlevelsbutarecurrentlyslightlyhigherYoY.Despitehighlivestockinventories,breedingprofitsarenegative,andthecost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal is low,which limits its demand growth.From a marginal change perspective,recent imports ofAustralianrapeseedmayopenupgrowthspaceforrapeseedimports,puttingmorepressureonnearbycontracts. ▫Valuation:The entire industrychain is operating at a loss.Importing and crushing rapeseed is unprofitable,and downstream breedingoperationsarealsosufferinglosses.Thevaluationofrapeseedmealisinarelativelymoderaterange. ▫Strategy:Focusonreversespreadtradingofrapeseedmeal.ShorttheRM2605-2609pricespread. ▫Risks:UnsmoothimportsofAustralianrapeseed,reducedoverseasrapeseedproduction,andmacroeconomicpositives. ▫海外菜籽2026年预期增产，加菜籽FOB报价下跌，加菜籽旧作库存去化。中国菜籽供需双弱，一方面，中加关系导致中国减少加菜籽进口量，菜籽进口量累计同比下降42%；另一方面，中国菜籽累计压榨量同比下降41%，下游表观消费量累计同比下降25%，菜粕成交同比走低，提货量累计同比下降35%。中国菜籽库存维持低位，菜粕库存从高位回落，目前同比略偏高。尽管养殖存栏高企，但养殖利润亏损，菜粕性价比不高，限制菜粕需求增长。从边际变化看，近期澳籽进口，可能打开菜籽进口增长空间。给近月合约带来更大压力。 ▫估值：全产业链亏损。进口菜籽压榨亏损，下游养殖亏损。菜粕估值处于相对中等区域。 ▫策略：菜粕反套为主，做空RM2605-2609价差。 ▫风险因素：澳籽进口不顺利，海外菜籽减产，宏观利多。 Rapeseed Oil 菜油 2.1 Spread Review 月差回顾 2.2 Profit 压榨利润 ▫Crushing operations for Canadian canola have essentially concluded, resulting in zero rapeseed oil production from crushing forfour consecutiveweeks. Unloading of Australian rapeseed shipments has been completed, and rapeseed oil production from crushing is expected to recover inthe coming week. Australianrapeseedsupply in the first quarter of 2026 will become critical for domestic rapeseed oil production. ▫由于加拿大菜籽基本压榨结束，菜籽油压榨产出量连续四周为0。澳菜籽卸船已完成，预计未来一周菜籽油压榨产出将有所恢复。2026年1季度澳菜籽供应将成为国内菜油压榨产出的关键。 2.3 Import菜籽进口 ▫Rapeseed Imports: Septemberrecorded 115,000 tons, withcumulative imports from January toSeptember totaling 2.45 million tons.▫Rapeseed Oil Imports: Septemberrecorded 140,000 t