中国经济：温和再通胀

Inmildreflation Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk China’s deflationarypressurecontinued to easeinend-2025. CPI edged up drivenbyfood and gold jewellery prices.Consumer goods rebounded as holidayapproacheswhile service price remained flat.Contraction of PPI notablynarroweddrivenby non-ferrous-relatedprice,while downstream sectorsremained subdued. We expect mild price reflation in theshort term,driven by anti-involutioncampaign and global commodities rally,which should improvecorporateprofitability and support capital market performance.However,the Bingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk Food price drove therebound ofCPI.China’sCPIedged up to0.8%YoYin Dec from0.7% inNov,in line with market expectation.In sequentialterms, CPIrecovered to 0.2%in Dec from-0.1%in Nov.Food priceremained the major driver as its YoY growth rose to 1.1% in Dec, boostingheadline CPI by 0.2pp. Vegetable price YoY growth climbed to 18.2%, whileits MoM pace slowed from 0.5% in Nov to 0.3% in Dec. Pork price sawanotherdrop at-1.7%MoM in Dec,as live hog inventory remained Core CPIremained elevated.Core inflationstayed flat at 1.2%YoYinDec,while itsMoM rose 0.2%.Durable goods saw notable price reflation asChinese New Yearis approaching.Homeequipment,telecomequipmentand vehicles rose 1.4%, 3% and 0.1% MoM respectively in Dec. Accordingto NBS, gold jewelleryfurther rose to 68.5%YoY in Dec from 58.4%,contributing at least 0.5pp to core inflation.Service priceremained flat at0% MoM inDec, with its YoY growth moderated to 0.6% in Dec from 0.7%. PPIsustained its recovery momentum.TheYoY contractionof PPIedgedup to-1.9% in Dec from-2.2%in Nov, beating market expectationsat-2%.The MoM growthincreased for the third month at 0.3%driven by upperstreamsectorsincludingminingand raw materials, rising 0.8% and 0.6%respectively. Extraction of coal and non-ferrous metals rose 1.3% and 3.7%in Dec,whilethe mining ofcrude oil and gasdeclined 1.3%.NBS officialspointedout that deflation in major anti-involution sectors continued to Weexpect mild price reflation driven by anti-involution campaign andglobal commodities rally.Despite recent recovery,CPI and PPI bothsoftened in 2025 to 0.1% and-2.6% from 0.2% and-2.2% in 2024.Weexpect the CPI and PPI to reflate to 0.7% and-0.5% in 2026 thanks to the performancein the capital market. However,the sustainability of pricereflation over the mediumandlong term remains uncertain. At present, pricegains have been concentratedin theupstreamsectors, while end-demandremainsweak.Chinese policymakers may require more time to reachconsensus on prioritizing economic rebalancing,and to steer policy support Source: Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source: Wind, CMBIGM Source: Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source: Wind,CMBIGM Source: Wind, CMBIGM Source: Wind,CMBIGM Source: Wind, CMBIGM estimates Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source:Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of thisresearch report, in whole or in part, certifiesthatwith respect to the securitiesor issuer that the analyst covered in thisreport: (1) all of the viewsexpressed accurately reflect hisor her personal viewsabout the subject securitiesor issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific viewsexpressed by that analyst in thisreport. Besides, the analyst confirmsthat neither the analyst nor his/her associates(asdefined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securitiesand FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in thisresearch report within 30 calendar daysprior to the date of issue of thisreport; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in thisresearch report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the Hong CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of ov er 15% ov er next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% ov er next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of ov er 10% ov er next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM OUTPERFORMMARKET-PERFORM :Industry expected to outperf orm the relev ant broad market benchmark ov er next 12 months:Industry expected to perf orm in-line with the relev ant broad market benchmark ov er next 12 months CMB InternationalGlobal Mark etsLimitedAddress: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International CapitalCorporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting i