黄金市场评论：贵金属雷鸣

Gold Market CommentaryPrecious metal thunder Gold pushed to “eleven” in 2025 HighlightsHighlights Performance Add HeadingAdd textAdd HeadingDecemberand FY 2025reviewDecember’s 4% gain took gold’sfull-year return to a multi-decaderecord of 67% y/y. Gold tagged its 53rdall-time PM price high for the year, reaching US$4,449/oz on23 December, before closing the year at US$4,368/oz (Chart1). It was a stellarfinish to a stellar year – posting a December return of 4.2% to take the full yearreturn to 67%. All-time-highs were set in all the major currencies, but with someannual variation in the final return tally due to FX volatility (Table1). Add textCentral banks, tariff and traderisks, strong options market activityand a weaker US dollar all played apart. Attribution In December, our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) suggested that optionsactivity – a component ofrisk & uncertainty- was a major contributor to themonthly return, followed by EM FX where US dollar weakening vs the Chineserenminbi (+1.2%) was a key factor. (Chart2). Looking forward The December precious metalssurge, including silver andplatinum, and commodity indexrebalancing could elicit some near-term volatility. But beyond short-term effects, gold will likely hum toits own tune. For 2025 as a whole, the explicit variables in our model explained c.60% of theFY return, led by geopolitical risk and options market activity, particularly fromAugust to October. A weaker US dollar was also instrumental, led by EM FX.Falling yields provided a slightly smaller but still important boost. See Table 1 onourGold Outlook 2026for further details. All-time highs in the LBMA PM benchmark price (US$/oz)* Upcoming tariff rulings by the USSupreme Court will likely haveimportant implications for US tradepolicy.The effect on gold may bemore nuanced but potentiallysupportive. Finally, the continued stream ofgeopolitical flareups, most recentlyexemplified with US actions inVenezuela, create support for goldand highlight that it has becomethe safe haven of choice. For more information pleasecontact:research@gold.org On the flipside, the cumulative lagged gold monthly returnwas a drag on the full year. This reflects how effectively thegold market self-corrects and balances – even in a bullmarket – via gold’s dual nature channels of consumer andinvestor demand. It also contributes togold’s low averagevolatility among the commodity complex. Precious metal thunder •December’s surge in precious metals was historic in scalebut uneven in nature, with silver and platinum exhibitingclear signs of a policy-driven squeeze, in contrast to gold’srelatively more measured ascent. The full-year residual contribution likely reflected somecentral bank, tariff-related or Commodity Trading Advisor(CTA)/retail activity that the explicit variables did not. Inaddition, a higher constant-which captures theunconditional mean return after accounting for all explicitfactors – likely reflected the persistent demand impact fromcentral banks during the year. We see this as a feature, not aflaw. •Near-term risks from silver and platinum volatility maybriefly weigh on gold, but the medium-term outlook for allthree metals remains constructive, limiting the likelihoodof a sustained drag. •January poses some additional minor event risks for gold,including index rebalancing and a possible SupremeCourt ruling on IEEPA tariffs. We see the outcomes hereas mostly positive for gold. Gold ETFs and futures •The US capture of Maduro and ongoing tensions inVenezuela reminds us that geopolitical flare-ups tend torecede quite quickly, but the frequency of such events andtheir cumulative effect over the last year has likely raisedthe pulse rate of markets and risk premia with it. Goldseems to be the main beneficiary in these scenarios. In December, global gold ETFs managed a seventhconsecutive month of inflows, dominated by North Americanfunds, as they had been for the full year. Futures positioningdata had caught up by year end showing an increase inmanaged money net longs of US$11bn (59t) for December,an increase in value of US$8bn but a fall in tonnage by 173tfor the full year. Tariff uncertainty and trade frictions pulled forward investorpurchases of physical supply, steepened backwardation(Chart5), and inflated regional premia (Chart6), most visiblein silver and platinum. China’s announcement on 27December of export licenses for silver, added fuel to thefire.1 December’s thundering surge across precious metals helpeddeliver a y/y return for the sector not seen in 45 years(Chart3) and (Chart4). The final leg higher appeared less about an acceleration ofstructural tailwinds-such as real-asset demand, fiscalconcerns or dollar weakness−and more about a policy, andnear-market supply squeeze. Precious metals 12-month swap rates* Annual return of precious metals* Chinese local price premium/discount to global price* Gold continued to move higher in December, but unlike theother precious