全球大宗商品交易商面临新的起源时代

Global shifts prompt the rise of origination Alexander FrankeAdam PerkinsOjasvi Goel THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT: A NEW TYPEOF INSTABILITY The economic and political consensus of the last few decades has rapidly and dramaticallyfractured, shifting away from the globalization of capital, international economiccooperation, and trade liberalization towards resource nationalism and trade barriers. While Modern commodity trading as we know it emerged in the 1970s in a similar environment,catalyzed by nationalistic resource independence efforts. This allowed a new breed ofspecialized intermediaries to address informational asymmetries, cut deals with distant Traders have increasingly succeeded on the strength of their analytics capabilities, fromproprietary intelligence and algorithmic trading to significant investments in predicting theweather. The modern commodity trader makes thin unit margins on enormous volumes; Today’s new kind of instability challenges the precepts underpinning the moderncommodity trading industry. While traders were hugely successful in the market resettlingafter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, today’s broader and less predictable shifts aremore challenging. All trade is likely to be less straightforward. Even before considering the Trading around this short-term, event-driven volatility is challenging, though windfall profitshave accrued to some with the stomach to bear equally sudden losses on occasion. Whileimmediate market reactions to these events are often severe and potentially punishing, thefundamental market shifts behind the announcements have been frequently less dramatic. ENERGY AND MINERAL SECURITY NOW THE TOPGEOPOLITICAL PRIORITY Global geopolitical compacts are experiencing a fundamental restructuring. A systempremised on close and comprehensive US support of allied economies in Europe and EastAsia has been met with deepening nationalism and discussion around a more isolationist This impulse to security has been building over time, accelerated by general geopoliticalshifts and specific shocks to market participants, including major deals being reneged uponwith dramatic consequences. Prime examples are the sudden cessation of Russian gassupplies to Central Europe and the refusal of private LNG players to fulfil contracts. When Regulatory pushes promoting self-sufficiency include national critical minerals strategies,many of which require increased local production and refining of critical minerals, andenergy security mandates including Europe’s requirement for countries to fill up their gasstorage facilities. The rush to guarantee adequate supplies of critical resources is also This emphasis on physical control over supply is also evident in the rebalancing of prioritiesaround sustainability versus energy security. Countries and companies — even those onceat the forefront of the energy transition — are increasingly focusing on ensuring energy TRADERS WILL SUCCEED BY RE-FOCUSING ON ORIGINATION Traded markets are increasingly diverging. Some highly liquid markets will continue to seethe dominance of digital platforms and balance-sheet backed activities. Many other markets,however, are seeing the re-emergence of more bespoke and higher-margin originationand structured trading. Greater unpredictability and geopolitical shifts have moved thesecommodities down the liquidity curve, providing wider spreads for traders to profit from. To succeed, traders will need to build their origination efforts, responding to calls forresilience, working more closely within regional blocs, and ensuring additional expenditure Responding to regional calls for resilience The emergence of regional blocs creates both short-term and long-term opportunitiesfor traders who emphasize origination. In the short run, greater emphasis on security ofsupply creates premiums for those able to deliver near-shored supply. This was first visiblein European gas markets, with a flurry of long-term gas supply deals after Russia’s invasionof Ukraine and, more recently, has characterized some metals markets, especially those forrare earth metals. Over time, as markets adjust, these ‘security of supply premia’ will decline. Building trust within trading and regional blocs In today’s environment, reliability and trustworthiness are more important than ever.Partnering with governments to help them meet core regional priorities will help improveprospects. Active engagement with regional blocs on key priorities will help open up Spend smart Greater emphasis on origination and business development is expensive, especially asinterest rates remain elevated; given the kinds of risks present in today’s market, we expectcosts of capital to remain higher than in the past decade. More working capital will beneeded to maintain short-term inventories and acquire transport and storage assets. More The history of commodity trading (both ancient and modern) indicates that changes tothe global political