中国月度报告：12月及四季度数据前瞻

Research Analysts China monthly: December and Q4data preview Asia Economics Jing Wang - NIHK[ing.wang@nomura.com+852 2252 1011 The November's activity data furher corroborated our mid-year forecast for a demand cifin H2 2025. FAl growt1 remained deeply negative from property fallout and the anti-involution campaign, while retail sales growth plummetec to a three-year low on significantpayback from the trace-in program, stringent austerity rules and a deepening negstiveDecember amid sustained demand headwinds and a lack of forceful policy support. Wemaintain our below-consensus forecast of 4.3%s y-o-y for Q4 GDP growth. Harrington Zhang - NIHKharrington.zh:ang@nomurg.com+862 2252 2057 Hannah Liu - NIHKhanrah.iu@nomura.com+852 2252 1052 Although the ainnual Central Economic Work Conference signaled Beijing's renewedconcerns about the growth slowdown, the policy tone seems to be less urgent than thepolicy pivot a year ago. Nevertheless, Beijing is unlikely to let growth continue sinking. Webe announced in March 2026 (see more in our 2026 outlook on page 13-20 of Asia MacroOutlook 2026 Mind the gap ). Despite mounting backlash against China's over TIng Lu - NIHKting.unomura.com+862 2252 1336 We maintain our forecast for a sharp real GDP growth slowdown in Q4 Activity data showed marked demand weakness in October-November, even for supply-side indicators. Output growth in industrial production and the services sector fell notablyto 4.9% y-0-y and 4.4%, respectively, in October-November from 5.8% and 5.7% in Q3.As demand weakness is likely to sustain in December, we maintain our Q4 real GDPgrowth forecast of 4.3% y-o-y, cown from 4.8% in Q3. On nominal GDP, its growth mightrebound modestly to 4.0% y-0-y in Q4 from 3.7% in Q3, as slowing real GDP growth couldprices and the anti-involution campaign, CPl and PPl inflation rebounded to 0.5% y-o-yand -2.2%, respectively, in October-November from -0.2% and -2.9% in Q3. We forecast subdued PMls and a slowdown in export growth We expect the official manufacturing and non-manufscturing PMls to remain muted atmanufacturing PMI, which surveys more SMEs and exporters, is likely to drop to 49.6 inDecember from 49.9 in November. On major activity data, we expect export growth todecelerate to 2.0% y-o-y in December from 5.9% in November, cue mainly to a high baseand softening sequential momentum. IP growth is likely to slow sharply to 4.0% y-o-y inDecember from 4.8% in November, due mainly to a high base and veakening sequentialmomentum. Retail sales growth is likely to drop further to 1.1% y-o-y in December from1.3% in November, due to intensified payback from the consumer trade-in program. FAlgrowth is likely to remain deeply negstive at -10.4% y-o-y in December, up from -11.1% inNovember. We expect an unchanged cPI and soft credit growth We expect CPI infiation to remain elevated at 0.7% y-o-y in December, unchanged fromNovember, with the boost from food prices offset by drags from energy and core prices.We expect PPl inflation to improve slighty to -2.0% y-0-y in December from -2.2% inNovember, driven by subdued raw material prices. We expect growth in outstandingaggregate financing to drop further to 8.1% y-o-y in December from 8.5% in November, asthe pace of government bond issuance slows. We expect growth in outstanding RMBloans to drop to 6.3% y-o-y in December from 6.4% in November, due to both weak creditdemand and the ongoing debt swap program. Frod,tton Corrplels: 2325-12-24 cT 51 UTC December and Q4 data preview Officlal manufacturing PMI In December: 49.2 (November: 49.2) Official non-manufacturing PMI in December: 49.5 (November: 49.5) We cxpect the official manufacturing PMl to rernain subdued at 49.2 in Decembcr,unchanged from Novemtxer, veighed down by subdued investment activity, the paybackeffect frorn the consurner trade-in prograrni and a pulback in business activity in emergingindustrics, China's EPMl, a non-scasonally adjusted leacing indicator of the official PMI,dropped by 3.6pp to 49.1 in Decernber from 52.7 in November, with the decline larger thanthe historical Novernber-to-Decernber average decrease of 2.1pp. We expect the oficial non-rnanufacturing PMI to rernain subdued at 49.5 in December,unchanged from November, as the ongoing austerily rule that discourages governmentofficials frorn dinning out, and limited wealth efecls frorn the stock market rallyMeanwhile, the PMI for the construction sector is likely to rernain muted owing to high-frequency data. We expect the RatingDog rnanufacturing PMI (formerly Caixin manufacluring PMI), whichsurveys more SMEs and expxorlers in the eastern coastal region of China, to drop to 49.6in December from 49.9 in November, due to tne sloving momentum in export growth.Growth in Korea's overall exports slowed to 6.8% y-o-y in 1-20 Deoernber from 8.4% inNovernber. On Korea's trade with China, srowtih of exporls and irnports rnoderated to6.5% y-0-y and 3.9%, respectively, in 1-20 December from 6