关键矿物驱动的能源未来

Table of Contents Executive Summary and Key Messages......................................................................................... 4Introduction................................................................................................................................... 6Why Critical Minerals are Critical.................................................................................................... 6Role of Critical Minerals in Energy Transition................................................................................. 8Global Patterns and Trends in Critical-Minerals Policy Activity..................................................... 11Overview of Key Minerals............................................................................................................ 12Copper..................................................................................................................................... 12Cobalt...................................................................................................................................... 14Rare Earth Elements (REEs)...................................................................................................... 15 Executive Summary and Key Messages •Critical minerals, advanced energy technologies, and global energy markets aredeeply intertwined.Critical minerals underpin the technological innovations that driveeconomic growth, energy security, supply-chain resilience, and the competitiveness of •Access to knowledge and human resources are as critical to mineral supply chains asaccess to resources and markets themselves.Expanding production and alleviatingshortages will depend not only on access to reserves and markets, but also on accessto data and the transfer of expertise in mining and refining. Today, these resources andcapabilities are concentrated in a limited number of countries, and the skilled workforce •Criticality in critical minerals is not inherent to the minerals themselvesbut reflectsnational industrial structures and supply-chain dependencies. Countries define criticalminerals differently based on their policy and industry priorities, supply risks, and •Copper demand from electric vehicles rises from around 0.2 Mt in 2020 toapproximately 3.4 Mt by 2035 and benefits from a well-diversified market.Between2025 and 2035, electric vehicles drive copper demand growth of roughly 14% per year.Copper remains the largest contributor to future mineral demand, driven by grid •More than 60% of global critical mineral demand is met through international trade,creating deep interdependence between producing and consuming regions. Asdemand accelerates with the energy transition, this high level of trade integrationmakes supply-chain resilience essential. Disruptions may quickly cascade and have •Producer–consumer dialogue is essential to the reliable functioning of criticalmineral markets.The IEF’s experience shows that structured, sustained dialogueanchored in trusted data and transparency helps reduce uncertainty, strengthen critical mineral markets helps align expectations on supply, demand and investment, •Post-2020 critical mineral policies almost double in volume over the previous twodecades, signaling a sharp acceleration in government engagement. While strategicplanning remains the dominant focus, policy priorities are expanding, with internationaltrade and export controls increasingly prominent and, in some cases, now surpassingenvironmental and sustainability measures. Streamlined licensing and enhanced •Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming mineral exploration by dramaticallyimproving discovery efficiency and precision.AI has reshaped exploration byintegrating large geospatial, geophysical, and historical datasets to detect and mapmineral reserves with far greater precision than conventional methods. Recent •Well-functioning markets alone cannot resolve all challenges of critical mineral supply and demand fundamentals but remain the pre-condition for their resolution.Sustained consumer–producer dialogue and international cooperation are essential toensure critical mineral market security and resilience. Such collaboration can reducetrade hurdles, boost investor confidence, and facilitate technology transfer and •Market resilience, strengthened through producer–consumer dialogue and effectiverisk-management strategies, remains essential for critical-mineral market security. Concentration in critical minerals mining and refining heightens vulnerability and makesdialogue, data sharing, market diversification and other risk management solutions ofvital importance. Broadening dialogue on critical minerals supply and demand, including Introduction Critical Minerals (CMs) are emerging as the backbone of high-tech industries, renewable energy,transportation, and many other sectors. The rapid expansion of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and digitalization sharply increases demand for specific m