能源转型的关键矿物—锂（英）

TECHNICAL PAPER 1/2022BY DOLF GIELEN AND MARTINA LYONSCRITICAL MATERIALS FOR THE ENERGY TRANSITION:LITHIUM © IRENA 2022Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of the author(s) as the source and IRENA as the copyright holder. Material in this publication attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material.ISBN 978-92-9260-418-9Citation: Gielen, D. and M. Lyons (2022), Critical materials for the energy transition: Lithium, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge, and a driver of action on the ground to advance the transformation of the global energy system. An intergovernmental organisation established in 2011, IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org www.irena.orgAcknowledgementsWe would like to thank Elizabeth Press and Paul Komor (IRENA) and Samuel Carrara (European Commission Joint Research Centre) for their valuable expert input and information leads. All conclusions, errors and shortcomings in this technical brief are the sole responsibility of the authors. For further information or to provide feedback: publications@irena.orgDisclaimerThe views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of IRENA. This publication does not represent IRENA’s official position or views on any topic.The Technical Papers series are produced as a contribution to technical discussions and to disseminate new findings on relevant topics. Such publications may be subject to comparatively limited peer review. They are written by individual authors and should be cited and described accordingly.The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of IRENA or all its Members. IRENA does not assume responsibility for the content of this work or guarantee the accuracy of the data included herein.Neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The mention of specific companies, projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended, either by IRENA or the author(s). The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA or the author(s) concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. TABLE OF CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARY .........................................................................................................6INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................8DEMAND PROJECTIONS ....................................................................................................10SUPPLY PROJECTIONS .......................................................................................................14GLOBAL LITHIUM INDUSTRY STRUCTURE ............................................................................19LITHIUM SUPPLY COST .......................................................................................................21INNOVATIONS TO REDUCE DEMAND GROWTH .................................................................24ENERGY USE AND CO2 EMISSIONS OF LITHIUM PRODUCTION ..........................................25THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENTS IN DE-RISKING LITHIUM SUPPLY ..........................................27REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................30ANNEX: OUTLINE OF AN OBSERVATORY FOR CRITICAL MATERIALS ..................................34© IRENA 2021 36 4 | CRITICAL MATERIALS FOR THE ENERGY TRANSITION: OUTLOOK FOR LITHIUMFigure 1: Lithium price trends 2018–2021 ................................................................................................................8Figure 2: Lithium-cell manufacturing capacity by region of plant location. ...............................................10 Figure 3: Lithium carbonate and lit