XL…Velocity 12运维市场

THE VELOCITY12REPORT The Reshaping of Global Growth Report SynopsisJune 2016 THE VELOCITY12 MARKETS A BILLION NEWMIDDLE-CLASS CONSUMERS Amidst growing global economic uncertainty, a new Ogilvy & Mather reportargues that 12 “velocity” countries – comprising more than half of the world’spopulation – will reshape future global growth. A billion new middle-classconsumers will emerge in these 12 countries in the coming decade, creatinga critical tipping point as the middle-class moves from a minority to themajority of the local population in many of these markets. Consequently, thisnext generation of “global middle-class” consumers will not only play animportant economic role, they will also become key agents of social change,influencers on their governments, arbiters of local lifestyles, and empoweredconsumers in brand attraction and interaction. All of this will have a profoundimpact on the way companies develop marketing activities, communications,and relations programs to these new global middle-class consumers. SOUTH ASIA: EPICENTER OF GROWTH PPP-BASED RANKING Propelled by gains in income and higher education,connected by technology and the explosion of cities,the next billion middle-class consumers are remappingthe geography of growth. The Velocity 12 – with anepicenter in South Asia, principally India, Pakistan, andIndonesia but extending up to China in one direction,and to Egypt, Nigeria, Mexico, and Brazil in the other– represents a vast arc of future growth: Ogilvy’s V12 ranking, a corollary to traditionaleconomist and banking indices, measures middle-classgrowth in terms of income, rather than assets, using aPurchasing Power Parity(PPP) methodology. Plusit provides a fresh view by factoring in speed as wellas the size of growth. Through this lens of velocity,we see a vastly expanding middle class that is able tomanage volatility by the sheer force of its demands; thatis resistant or resilient to currency fluctuation; and thatoffers a consumer marketing perspective to complementeconomist and banking studies. NEW MIDDLE CLASS INCREASES A new lexicon of growth tomatch a more equal world. a population three times that of the West (and with percapita incomes less than one-tenth of the West in 1980),has grown at an average rate about 4 times (6.3% versus1.6% per annum) of the West. A MORE EQUAL WORLD Many recent discussions of global economics point tothe concentration of wealth in 1% of the population;the world, when measured by wealth distribution isnot equal. Yet when viewed from the perspective of theexpanding middle class within the 99% majority, andmeasured by income distribution rather than wealth,the world is more equal than ever, and the nextbillion middle-class consumers will move the worldaverages towards greater – not lesser – equality.Driven by higher than average income growth in thetwo most populous countries of the world, China andIndia, inequality has moved inexorably towards greaterequality. The rich, developed world has approximately900 million people, whose income has grown at the rateof 1.6% for the last 35 years; China and India, home to VELOCITY INEQUALITY TRENDS IN WORLD Emerging market lexicon now outdated.The changes in the Velocity 12markets will ultimately require a new lexicon of growth – one better suitedto describe the essence of transformation with fresh language to replace theoutdated phrase, “emerging markets,” a phrase that now seems too gradualistand even colonial. “Emerging markets” accounted for only 10% of globaltrade in 1970; today they hold a 30% share, a number that is expected to growto over 40% by 2050. In fact, using a Purchase Power Parity (PPP) measure,nearly half of the world’s top GDPs come from V12 markets. LARGEST ECONOMIES BY SHARE OF WORLD GDP(PPP-BASED) SOCIAL VELOCITY CHANGINGMARKETS Countries in order of ranking by GDP. Figures withincircle represent expenditure (US$ Billion). More than an economic outlook, this report takes intoaccount a range of V12 social, cultural, technologicaland lifestyle trends that companies need to be aware ofand understand well to market and capture marketsharein the V12 sphere. Velocity Defined The middle class of the V12 represent a social tapestry ofgreater ethnic, linguistic, cultural and religious diversitythan previous generations of middle-class consumers inthe West. Further, they enjoy the power of connectivityto a global grid of commerce, influence, and socialinteraction, which means that many velocity marketconsumers have the same access to information, utility,and competitive options as higher income markets. So,while they are diverse, plus locally loyal and culturallyproud, they live in a world with a leveling consumerplaying field. As a result, middle-class consumers of thecoming decade will have a more accelerated understandingof their options than prior generations of middle-classconsumers, plus a megaphone for expressing their tastesand opinions. These next billion middle-class consumer