内存追踪（12月）：继11月后进一步加速

MEMORY TRACKER (Dec): Further acceleration from Nov This monthly tracker (download datasethere) summarizes spot and contract price datareleased by TrendForce/DRAMeXchange & compares that with our model & investorexpectation. Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com Dec contract price went up further as strong server demand persisted. Spot price: DDR5 spot price increase slowed after a steep surge in prior months. DDR4spot prices continued rising at similar paces as before. Contract price: Contract prices rose further in Dec as more follow-on orders came in. Withserver demand staying strong, suppliers continued to hike prices while also having to rationsupply to non-server customers. Overall by Dec DRAM contract had risen to 78% highervs. 3QCY25, with 70% for PC, 90% for Server, 40% for Mobile & 120% for Consumer. Into1QCY26 DRAM contract price is expected to rise by another 55-60% QoQ. And the overallenvironment may favor suppliers more as HBM demand & server unit growth are trendingstronger. Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com April Li+1 917 344 8339april.li@bernsteinsg.com NAND wafer contract prices rose further as well as eSSD demand strained onsupply. Phoebe Sun+1 917 344 8481phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com Spot price: NAND wafer spot price increase moderated vs. the prior month but was still34-40% up MoM. Contract price: wafer contract price was up by another 30-40% MoM in Dec, due to eSSDdemand resulting in shortage as in the previous month. For eMMC/UFC used principally inMobile, the latest checks suggested 4QCY25 contract price was likely rising by 20-25%QoQ. Overall contract prices for wafer & Mobile NAND was indicated to go up by ~115%QoQ in 4QCY25 but it was heavily distorted by wafers. Adding SSDs we estimate the overallNAND contract price to rise by 33-38% QoQ in 4QCY25. In summary, memory price momentum remained strong.Contract prices went upfurther in Dec and is expected to rise into 1QCY26 as well. Supply was still prioritized forserver customers, which still had no issue stomaching the rising prices. This dynamic maypersist & customers from other segment likely will have to face both price hikes & reducedallocation. We model continued ASP rise nearly throughout CY26, but with supply catchingup, we expect the rise to level off towards the end of CY26 and revert to a downcycle inCY27. We think the structural AI demand strength will persist and hence by the end of CY27price & margins =normalize to a level that’s close or even above healthy level. SeeGlobalMemory: Any upside left after the recent rally?for details BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Samsung Electronics:We rate Samsung Electronics Outperform with price target of KRW 140,000. SK hynix :We rate SK hynix Outperform with price target of KRW 750,000. Micron:We rate Micron Outperform with price target of US$330.00. KIOXIA: We rate KIOXIA Underperform with price target of JPY 7,000.00. SanDisk:We rate SNDK Outperform with a price target of $300.00 DETAILS TrendForce (who publishes research on memory market & also maintains DRAMeXchange for memory spot market) has releasedthe Dec 2025 contract prices for DRAM & NAND covering different applications (dataset can be downloaded atMemory PriceTracker). We select mainstream products from each segment, apply different weights on them to derive an industry average ASPchange. SSD & HBM are not in the samples & will be additionally considered so that we can compare the overall ASP with ourprojection. We also summarize some spot price data as it can be a leading indicator of contract price. Please feel free to find ourmost recent market reviewand download our industry and company models from the links below. •CoWoS/HBM Model•DRAM Industry Model•NAND Industry Model•Samsung Electronics Model•SK hynix Model•Micron Model•KIOXIA Model Dec contract prices went up further & showed no sign of waning momentum. CSP customers remain unfazed bythe rising memory prices. And CY26 sever DRAM demand may turn out stronger than expected. Spot price: •PC DRAM: PC DDR4 chip spot price increases stayed unbelievably strong at 52% MoM in Dec, though actual transactionvolume was likely very limited and had little impact on the broader market. The more mainstream DDR5 chip saw the paceof spot price increase slow down but remained positive at +7.2% MoM, probably understandably as DDR5 had a steeperprice increase than DDR4 in prior months. Overall spot price suggested shortage persisted, sending prices higher (Exhibit1, Exhibit 3,Exhibit 4,Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6). •Server DRAM: Server DDR4 spot price increase continued at +19% MoM in Dec. DDR5 price increase slowed as wellbut remained +18% MoM (Exhibit 1,Exhibit 11, Exhibit 12). By the end of Dec both DDR4 and DDR5 spot prices remained~75-80% ahead of contract prices. •Contract price: •Average: Overall, taking a weighted average of multiple samples, we find contra