生猪养殖利润报告

期货从业资格证号：F3077472期货交易咨询证号：Z0018177中粮期货研究院关壹麟日期：20260105 风险揭示与免责声明 1.中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 2.中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 3.中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 4.中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 5.中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 6.中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中(中中中中中中中中中中中[2011]1453)中 7.中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 8.中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中/中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中9.中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 10.中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 上周回顾——自繁自养利润 •中中中中中中中中中中中中中17.15中/中中中中中中中96.12中/中中•中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•在近期猪价持续走强，成本端变动不大的情况下，上周自繁自养亏损幅度明显缓解。 上周回顾——仔猪销售利润 •中中中中中中中中中中中84中/中中中中中中中11中/中中•中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•上周仔猪价格小幅回暖，成本端维持稳定，上周仔猪销售亏损程度小幅缓解。 上周回顾——仔猪育肥利润 •中中中中中中中中中中中中中160.83中/中中中中中中中94.68中/中中•中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•在近期猪价持续走强，成本端同时小幅波动的情况下，上周仔猪育肥亏损程度明显缓解。 上周回顾——二次育肥利润 •中中中中中中中中中中中中中273.33中/中中中中中中中133.40中/中中•中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•近期猪价持续走强，二次育肥成本有所上涨，二次育肥利润继续扩大。 影响因素1——饲料成本 •中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 •中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 •从后期来看，尽管玉米新季成本偏低，考虑售粮进度过半，预计春节前卖压冲击有限，现货维持坚挺；豆粕价格预计偏弱震荡运行，关注美豆出口及南美产情，预计后期弱势盘整；配合料价格预计存在支撑。 影响因素2——仔猪成本 •中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 •中中中中中中中中中7kg中中中中227中/中中中中中中中11中/中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 •从后期来看，预计自繁自养仔猪饲养成本整体保持稳定，仔猪价格预计底部震荡走势。 影响因素3——生产指标 •中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•中中中中中中中中中中中中中中128.66kg中中中中中中1.04kg中中中中中中中中中中中中123.95kg中中中中中中0.39kg中中中中中中中145.12kg中中中中中中2.53kg中•中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中2.58中91.80%中•从后期来看，散户出栏后，大体重段偏紧，市场惜售情绪提升，预计体重阶段性有反复，但节前体重仍以逐步下调为主；集团企业当前进度完成较好，预计后期仍有降重空间。料肉比和育肥成活率预计将保持稳定。 影响因素4——育肥费用 •中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中155中/中中165中/中中中中中中中中中中•从后期来看，预计育肥费用仍以稳定为主。 影响因素5——商品猪价格 •中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 •中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 •从后期来看，前期市场销售节奏偏快，当期销售压力减轻，需求端存在支撑，短期现货价格偏强，由于供应整体充足，预计价格上方空间有限，春节前仍以震荡为主。关注散户节前中大猪销售情况和集团企业降重幅度。 生猪养殖利润总结 自繁自养利润 仔猪销售利润 •成本端：中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•收入端：中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•展望：中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 •成本端：中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•收入端：中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•展望：中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 二次育肥利润 仔猪育肥利润 •成本端：中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•收入端：中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•展望：中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 •成本端：中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•收入端：中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中•展望：中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中中 T H A N KY O U中中中中