iGaming每月DB体育博彩iCasino每月-每。..-119406345

DB Sports Betting / iCasino Monthly -Everything You Need in One Place Steven Pizzella, CFAResearch Analyst+1-212-250-9817 November iGaming Market RecapOur iGaming industry monthly piece includes: 1.Our GGR / Handle / Hold Focus Tracker2.State-by-state sports betting GGR performance3.Our sports betting state forecasts and TAM projections4.Same-store GGR performance and our same-store outlook5.Sports betting hold percentages6.Sports betting parlay mix and parlay hold metrics7.Sports betting promotional activity trends8.Sports betting per capita metrics9.OSB & iCasino operator trackers, including QTD growth, and GGR shares10.OSB handle shares by State and sequential changes by operator11.State tax rates (statutory / effective) and collections12.A state-by-state recap of iCasino performance trends and market shares13.A look at the iCasino impact on Brick & Mortar gaming14.Our iCasino TAM forecast Summary of Online Sports Betting Trends In November, our focal state OSB subset GGR increased 21.3% Y/Y (ex Tennessee),a deceleration from the 48.3% Y/Y growth experienced in October, and anacceleration from the 13.7% Y/Y decline in September. November hold of 11.7%was up ~130 bps Y/Y, while handle expanded 8.3% Y/Y, on a +2.2% Y/Y handlecomparison.On a two-year stack basis,November handle grew 9.5%,adeceleration from the October two-year stack of up 25.2% and the September two-year stack of up 19.4%. Looking ahead, the handle comparison for December is +6.0%. We note, if we holdthe November two-year handle stack constant of +9.5%, for December, handle isimplied to expand ~12.5% Y/Y. From a hold perspective, the December comparisonis 5.8%. 23 December 2025Gaming & LodgingiGaming Monthly Reviewing the OSB Promotional Data Based on the six states we track that provide detailed promotional color, four ofwhich have reported November results (PA / MI / CT / KS), promotions were up~7.5% Y/Y in November. Given handle was up ~4.0% Y/Y, across this subset, inNovember, promotions as a percentage of handle were up ~10 bps Y/Y (~3.0% inNovember, 2025, versus ~2.9% in November, 2024). From a GGR perspective, fromthis subset, promotions represented ~23% of GGR in November of 2025, relative to~27% in November of 2024. Overall, November net hold, from this subset, was up ~230 bps Y/Y to ~10.1% inNovember of 2025 from ~7.8% in November of 2024. Furthermore, October netrevenue, from this subset, was up ~34% Y/Y. Summary of iCasino Trends iCasino trends in November decelerated on a year over year basis, compared to thelast two months, with GGR for the month expanding 17.6% Y/Y (ex Rhode Island),relative to the 28.2% Y/Y growth in October and the 27.9% Y/Y growth inSeptember. West Virginia was the standout again, up 54.3% Y/Y, followed byPennsylvania up 21.0% Y/Y, New Jersey up 18.2% Y/Y, Connecticut up 17.4% Y/Y,and Michigan up 9.9% Y/Y. Note, we believe a ~$22.4 mm jackpot was won by aplayer in Michigan, through DKNG, in the month. Adjusted for the jackpot win, MIiCasino GGR in November was up ~19.8% Y/Y. The November result of +54.4%, ona two-year stack basis, adjusted for the Jackpot win in MI, decelerated comparedto October up 67.7%, on a two-year stack basis, and was essentially in-line with theSeptember two-year stack of +55.0%. Looking forward, using the average M/Msequential growth rate of ~8%, over the last four years, and adjusted for the MIJackpot, would imply iCasino GGR of ~$927 mm for December (ex Rhode Island),up ~19.5% Y/Y. 23 December 2025Gaming & LodgingiGaming Monthly 23 December 2025Gaming & LodgingiGaming Monthly 23 December 2025Gaming & LodgingiGaming Monthly 23 December 2025Gaming & LodgingiGaming Monthly 23 December 2025Gaming & LodgingiGaming Monthly 23 December 2025Gaming & LodgingiGaming Monthly DB Sports Betting Market TAM Forecast Our model uses precedent launch performance to project GGR for recentlylaunched or soon-to-launch states, while our projections for states that were livethroughout the 2022 through 2024 period effectively embed an 12.0% "same-store" CAGR for the period covering 2024 through 2027. While we believe the embedded same-store 12.0% CAGR is reasonable, it isimportant to keep in mind the impact of promotions on GGR and, to the extentoperators extract promotions, the extractions would have a negative effect on grossrevenue growth rates. Given; 1) the assumed CAGR for the states that operated for the entirety of 2022through 2024, 2) the new states that came online in 2023 and 2024, and 3) theMissouri launch in 2025, our 2027 US sports betting forecast is ~$20.0 bn, up~3.0% from our prior forecast. 23 December 2025Gaming & LodgingiGaming Monthly 23 December 2025Gaming & LodgingiGaming Monthly 23 December 2025Gaming & LodgingiGaming Monthly Sports Betting Hold Percentage Trends Hold percentages, within the recreational sportsbook model, are largely, if notentirely, predicated on the mix of single-event versus parlay / multi-outcomewagers. In short, single-event wager