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Canada's Defense sectorat a crossroads While Canada is finally catching up with the 2% spending guideline, the new NATOagreement (as of late June 2025), aims for members to eventually dedicate 5% ofGDP to total defense-related spending, with 3.5% spent on defense and 1.5% spent on After falling to ~1.0% of GDP in the 2010s, Canada's defensespending is now shifting from correction to acceleration to close Canada's defense spending1)[CAD bn] Modernization is underway, but delivery risks loom Major recapitalization efforts are advancing across air, land, sea, cyber, and space •Air:Procurement of F-35 stealth fighters and P-8 patrol aircraft is underway. •Land:Logistics vehicle programs and Leopard 2 upgrades aim to bolster ground •Naval:The National Shipbuilding Strategy is delivering Arctic patrol vessels and •Cyber/Space:Counter-UAS systems and AEW&C aircraft are being prioritized. Yet despite this momentum, Canada remains heavily reliant on foreign suppliers,particularly the United States. Delays, cost overruns, and fragmented procurement Origin and age of the Canadian Armed Forces fleet [2025] A fragmented industrial base struggles to scale Canada's defense industry is robust in areas such as shipbuilding, land systems(e.g., LAVs), and MRO services, but is dominated by Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers. This Export activity is healthy — with nearly 50% of output going abroad — but 63% ofexports go to the U.S., exposing Canadian firms to policy shifts south of the border. Canada's defense industrial base is well-balanced acrossdomains, with particular strengths in component manufacturing Canadian defense revenue breakdown [2022; CAD bn] Procurement is the bottleneck This chronic inefficiency undermines Canada's ability to respond quickly to Strategic gaps threaten sovereignty Key capability shortfalls have emerged across domains: •Arctic surveillance:Gaps in radar coverage and forward basing.•Cyber & space:No sovereign satellite comms or ISR assets.Industry A wave of opportunity for industry and investors This strategic reset opens up a unique window of opportunity for a wide range of •Domestic defense companiescan scale up to meet surging demand and secureleadership roles in key programs.•Non-defense industrial playerscan enter adjacent markets in cyber, AI, Overreliance on U.S. Platforms and Procurement Canada's defense posture has long been closely aligned with the United States.This deep integration—most notably through NORAD and the Five Eyes intelligence •Canada's air force is nearly entirely U.S.-dependent: 100% of fighter aircraft, 91%of helicopters, and over 75% of other mission aircraft originate from the U.S. •In cyber, space, and Arctic operations, Canada relies heavily on U.S. systems,protocols, and satellite infrastructure—undermining its sovereignty in high- •This dependency extends into defense trade. Roughly 63% of Canadian defenseexports go to U.S. buyers, increasing vulnerability to regulatory changes or Why Canada Needs Europe Amid rising global instability — from Eastern Europe to the Indo-Pacific — Canadafaces a strategic imperative to diversify its alliances and reduce systemic •Formalized Transatlantic Cooperation:The defense and security partnershipsigned in late June betweenCanada and the European Unionmarks a major •Complementary Capabilities:European partners bring industrial strengths inareas such as shipbuilding, cyber resilience, and defense innovation. Deepening •Diversified Supply Chain:Strengthening ties with Europe helps mitigate single-source procurement risks, particularly in critical domains such as submarine As the global defense landscape grows more complex, Canada's strategicautonomy — and its ability to meet increasing security commitments — may hinge on To realize this opportunity, Canada must now accelerate industrial and R&Dcollaboration with EU defense players, prioritize interoperability and co- How we can help As the leading strategy consulting firm of European heritage — with astrong track record in the global defense sector — we stand ready tosupport companies navigating these challenges. Whether entering the MATT PAGEPartner+1 416 720 5496 EYMERIC BOYERPrincipal+1 438 993 9996 This publication has been prepared forgeneral guidance only. The reader shouldnot act according to any informationprovided in this publication without © 2025 ROLAND BERGER GMBH.ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.