大经济，更大挑战

AUTHORS DAVID BORNSenior Manager Introduction: Mixed signals and mounting uncertainty CHRISTIAN GSCHWENDTNERSenior Expert Assessing the current state of the US economy is no easy task. Wherever you look,the evidence seems contradictory. On the one hand, growth remains robust ataround 2%, and the stock market is booming. On the other hand, inflationary CHRISTIAN KRYSSenior Expert This uncertainty is reflected in the growing disparity of GDP growth forecasts for 2025and 2026. According Consensus Economics data, the average standard deviation In the latest edition of our RBI Quarterly on the US economy, we take a step backfrom day-to-day politics to examine the state of America's economic landscape. This Our particular focus is on the significant investment in artificial intelligence. As wedemonstrate, much of the current growth momentum can be traced to substantial Finally, we examine the fundamental factors that have made the US economy theenvy of the world over the past decades. We ask how likely it is that these strengths For now, at least, the fundamental strength of the US economy appears to beprevailing. Key indicators for the next two years suggest stability. GDP growth is At first glance, the outlook seems reassuring. However, whether this stability holdswill depend largely on the US economy's ability to overcome current challenges and This year, the US economy has been shaken by Donald Trump's economic policies. Onthe one hand, his policies were no surprise, as he implemented many of his campaignpromises. On the other hand, his rapid and unexpected policy shifts were surprising.In this chapter, we will examine the challenges to the US economy posed by Trump's A central issue this year has been US import tariffs. Introduced on "Liberation Day",April 2, the tariffs aim to reduce the trade deficit in goods, attract foreign investment, In April, US imports of goods declined significantly. Since exports remained nearlyunchanged, the US trade deficit narrowed accordingly, though it remained high. In "Liberation Day" squeezed imports Negotiations with the EU resulted in the attraction of foreign investment. Inexchange for capping US import tariffs at 15%, the EU pledged to investUSD 600 billion in the United States. However, European companies have not yetannounced these funds, nor have they been contractually secured, making Since April, government revenues from import tariffs have risen steadily, reaching alevel in October that was more than four times higher than in March. However, The rapid increase in tariffs has created significant uncertainty, particularly forcompanies that export to the US. At the same time, the US is seeing the formation orstrengthening of economic alliances that exclude it. For instance, the trade dispute 2Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.3Committee for a ResponsibleFederal Budget. The high level of US government debt poses a persistent risk. Public debtstood at around 105% of GDP prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and has since risento approximately 120%.2Interest payments are estimated to reach about Another risk that could hinder long-term US growth is the decline in immigrationresulting from President Trump's restrictive immigration policies. This year, the numberof people leaving the country could exceed the number of immigrants entering for thefirst time since the Great Depression, around a century ago. Between 2000 and 2020, Developments in the labor market are difficult to assess, which is one reason whythe Federal Reserve has been cautious about changing interest rates. Restrictivemigration policies are reducing the available labor supply, yet the number of job Another risk is the highly valued stock market. Immediately after "Liberation Day"the stock market dropped but quickly recovered, reaching new heights – in parallel toprice rallies of cryptocurrencies accelerated by President Trump's crypto-friendlyactions, such as appointing crypto-friendly regulators, reducing crypto-regulation, Apart from the above risks, which are directly related to President Trump's economicpolicy, there are two main fundamental risks to the US economy. First, parts of themanufacturing sector have weakened and lost global market share over the last twodecades. The second issue is the dependence of the US on imports of raw materials, 7Nearly 700 drugs used in the USdepend on chemical ingredientsthat are solely produced in China. Two weaknesses: a decreasing US global manufacturing shareand high dependency on rare-earth imports from China The big bet on AI One sector has remained largely immune to pervasive uncertainty thus far: artificialintelligence. Investment in the infrastructure required to run large language modelshas sharply accelerated, reaching dizzying levels. A significant portion of the current When the value of the associated intellectual property and the grid upgradesneeded to support AI models are included, the contribution to GDP growth could Growth e