镍、钢铁和汽车：印尼的出口禁令和国内附加值

Nickel, Steel and Cars Export Ban and Domestic Value-Added in Indonesia Hiau Looi KeeEnze Xie Development EconomicsDevelopment Research GroupNovember 2025 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11249 Abstract Nickel is essential for producing iron and steel. Endowedwith the world’s largest reserve, Indonesia banned nickelexports in 2014 to promote industrialization. This paperstudies the impacts of the export ban on downstreamsteel-using industries. A three-sector model shows that,while the export ban could raise the domestic value-added ratio (DVAR) in exports, the entry of smaller, inefficientfirms led to aggregate efficiency losses downstream. Firm-level evidence confirms higher DVAR, smaller firm size,and larger entrant shares in downstream industries post theexport ban. A field mission validated these results, whilenoting the continued heavy reliance on imported steel. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Nickel, Steel and Cars: Export Ban and Domestic Value-Added inIndonesia* Hiau Looi KEE†World BankEnze XIE‡Zhejiang University Keywords:Exportban,domesticvalue-addedinexports,industrialpolicy,monopsony,criticalmineral,efficiencyloss. JELCodes:F13,F14,F52,L13,L52 What we are looking at is to shift our policy from merely exporting raw minerals that willbe utilized by other countries to produce higher value products, to developing our processingcapabilities. This will result in added value for our minerals-related exports, provide a much-needed boost to our economy and generate employment for our people. —Philippine Senate President Francis Chiz G. Escudero, Feb 03, 2025 We believe that steel demand in Indonesia is also expected to keep growing in the industriessuch as automobiles, motorcycles and also in the infrastructure and energy sectors. —Press release: Establishment of PT. Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metal Indonesia, Dec 22, 2014 PT Krakatau Nippon Steel Synergy (PT KNSS) will contribute to all of stakeholders andIndonesian automotive Industry by providing high-grade and high-quality cold-rolled steelproducts, hot-dip galvanized steel products, and galvannealed steel products and service. —Mission Statement of PT. KNSS, Dec 26th, 2012 1Introduction Indonesia has the world’s largest reserve of nickel, which is a crucial input to produce iron andsteel, and a primary ingredient for batteries that are essential for the production of electric vehicles(EVs). Despite Indonesia’s longstanding role as a major exporter of nickel, the Indonesian governmentbanned nickel ore exports in 2014. Industrial deepening by promoting the domestic value-added in thedownstream industries, referred to as “downstreaming”, is part of the stated policy goals. Establishinga domestic production chain for EVs, from ore to cars, is also on the wish list. Can this export banon nickel jump-start Indonesia’s industrialization?Is there any evidence of industrial deepening inIndonesia since the nickel export ban was implemented by the government?What are the hiddencosts or unintended tradeoffs to such an industrial policy? This paper studies the effects of the nickel export ban on the domestic value-added ratio (DVAR)in exports of the downstream iron/steel-using industries of Indonesia. Given that iron/steel productsare used widely by firms in industries that produce cars, car parts, metal pipes, machinery, furniture,and construction materials, these firms are collectively referred to as the car firms in this paper forsimplicity.To understand the unintended tradeoff, this paper also studies the aggregate allocativeproductivity of these industries. Besides Indonesia, many countries, such as Zambia and the Philip-pines, are planning to or have already restricted the export of critical minerals with similar objectivesof raising domestic value-added in their exports. Results from this paper may inform these countriesof the viability of using an export ban as an industrial policy for development. To illustrate how the export ban on nickel may affect the domestic value-added of downstreamindustries, concurrently affecting aggregate allocative efficiency, this paper first presents a three-sectormodel, consisting of the primary sector producing nickel, the secondary secto