英国货币政策圆桌会议

Edited by:David Aikman and Richard Barwell Event organised by:BNPP AM and NIESR Contents Introduction5David Aikman, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, and RichardBarwell, BNP Paribas Asset Management Part I: What is the UK’sMonetaryPolicyPlaybookNextTimeThere isaCase forTaking Bank RateBelowZero? Quantitative Easing at 25: Time for a Makeover?13Matthieu Chavaz & Frank Smets, Bank for International Settlements Unconventional Monetary Policy and UK Equities and Investor Flows22Sharon Bell, Goldman Sachs Comments on the UK Monetary Policy Playbook at the Effective LowerBound26Lewis Alexander, Rokos Capital Management The UK's Monetary Policy Playbook at the Effective Lower Bound:Considerations for the Future33Ricardo Reis, London School of Economics General Discussion39 Closing Summary Remarks55Silvana Tenreyro, London School of Economics Part II: HowShould the MPCCommunicate itsOutlook,Decisions, andUncertainty? Comments on the Bank of England’s Communications Changes in Responseto the Bernanke Report61Bill English, Yale University How the Bank of England Could be Clearer on the Rates Outlook67Jumana Saleheen, Vanguard How the MPC Should Communicate76Chris Giles, Financial Times The MPC’s Communication Challenges86Michael McMahon, University of Oxford General Discussion93 108 Closing Summary RemarksUnattributed List ofParticipants The following participants agreed to have their names included: David Aikman,Director,National Institute of Economic and Social Research Lewis Alexander,Chief Economic Strategist,RokosCapital Management Silvia Ardagna,Head of European Economics Research,BarclaysCorporateand Investment Bank Melanie Baker,Senior Economist,RoyalLondonAssetManagement Richard Barwell,Head of Macroeconomic Research and Investment Strategy,BNPParibasAssetManagement Charlie Bean,Emeritus Professor of Economics,London School of Economics Sharon Bell,European Strategist,Global Investment Research, Goldman Sachs AlanCastle,Head of External Engagement (Monetary Analysis), Bank ofEngland Bill English,Eugene F. Williams Jr. Professor of the Practice,YaleUniversitySchool of Management Chris Giles,Economics Commentator,TheFinancialTimes Charles Goodhart, Emeritus Professor, FinancialMarketsGroup at the LondonSchool of Economics Mick Grady,Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist,AVIVAInvestors Jonathan Haskel, Professor of Economics,ImperialCollegeBusiness SchoolatImperial College London Anil Kashyap,Stevens Distinguished Service Professor of Economics andFinance,Booth School of Businessat theUniversity of Chicago Michael McLeay,Senior Advisor (Monetary Analysis),Bank of England Michael McMahon,Professor of Economics,University of Oxford Andre Meier,Managing Director (Research),TudorCapital Europe LLP Michael Michaelides,BlueCrest Capital Management Ben Nabarro, BalyasnyAsset Management Mette Nielsen,Senior Economic Advisor,Google Sonali Punhani,Chief UK Economist,Bank of America Merrill Lynch Sanjay Raja, Chief UK Economist, Deutsche Bank Ricardo Reis,Arthur Williams Phillips Professor of Economics,London Schoolof Economics Jumana Saleheen,Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy Group,Vanguard Europe Fergal Shortall,DirectorofMonetary Analysis,Bank of England Frank Smets,Deputy Head of Monetary and Economic Department and Headof Economic Analysis and Statistics,Bank forInternationalSettlements Paolo Surico,Professor of Economics,London Business School Silvana Tenreyro,Professor of Economics,LondonSchool of Economics Helen Thomas,CEO,BlondeMoney Georgios Tsapouris,Investment Analyst and Managing Director,GIC GertjanVlieghe,Vice Chairman (FIC),Millennium Capital Partners LLP Iain de Weymarn,Director of Monetary Analysis,Bank of England Bernhard Winkler,Visiting Advisor,Bank of England Rob Wood,Chief UK Economist,PantheonMacroeconomics Introduction David Aikman, National Institute of Economic and Social Research,and Richard Barwell, BNP Paribas Asset Management On 25 November 2025, the National Institute of Economic and SocialResearch,in collaboration with BNP Paribas Asset Management,convened a high-level, invite-only roundtable to discuss the UK’smonetary policy framework. This in-personevent brought togetherformer members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee,leading academic economists, and senior market economists whoclosely follow the Bank’s decisions. It was designed as a focused,deliberative forum rather than a public conference, witha limitednumber of participants and ample time for open exchange. Unlikeseveral other major central banks—including the FederalReserve and the European Central Bank—the UK has not undertaken aformal,public review of its monetary policy framework.Yet theenvironment in which the Bank of England operates has changedprofoundly. Over the past two decades, monetary policy has evolvedfrom conventional interest-rate setting to extended periods at theeffective lower bound, accompanied by