2025年《清洁竞争法》的预期影响（英）

About the Authors Kevin Rennertis a fellow and directs the Comprehensive Climate Change programas well as the Federal Climate Policy Initiative at Resources for the Future (RFF). Hiscurrent research focuses on federal policies to advance low-carbon energy sourcesand domestic manufacturing, address barriers to energy infrastructure, and enhanceUS competitiveness and reduce emissions through trade measures. Prior to his arrival Mun Hois a visiting scholar at RFF and a research associate at the China Project onEnergy, Economy and the Environment at the Harvard University School of Engineeringand Applied Sciences. His research is focused on economic growth, productivity,energy and environmental economics. His work on modeling energy and environmentalpolicies includes a 2013 bookDouble Dividend: Environmental Taxes and Fiscal Reform Katarina Nehrkornis a research associate at RFF. She graduated from the Universityof Michigan in 2020 with a BA in Economics. After graduating, she worked at Deloittefor two years in its Risk and Financial Advisory sector. In 2023, Nehrkorn completedher master’s in Environmental Economics and Climate Change from the London School Milan Elkerboutis fellow at RFF and the director of RFF’s International Climate PolicyInitiative. He is particularly interested in the intersection of climate and trade policy,green industrial policy, and carbon pricing and markets around the world. Prior tojoining RFF in 2023, he was a research fellow and head of climate policy at the Centrefor European Policy Studies (CEPS), a Brussels think tank, working on EU climatepolicy, emissions trading, and industrial decarbonization. In 2019–2020, he spent a year Acknowledgements The Global Economic Model used here is developed with Xian Hu of the EnvironmentalDefense Fund. We are grateful for her assistance in model simulation. About RFF Resources for the Future (RFF) is an independent, nonprofit research institution inWashington, DC. Its mission is to improve environmental, energy, and natural resourcedecisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. RFF is The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may differ from thoseof other RFF experts, its officers, or its directors. Sharing Our Work Our work is available for sharing and adaptation under an Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) license. Youcan copy and redistribute our material in any medium or format; you must giveappropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made,and you may not apply additional restrictions. You may do so in any reasonablemanner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.You may not use the material for commercial purposes. If you remix, transform, or The Clean Competition Act (CCA) of 2025, updated and introduced to the 119thCongress by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), would establish a domestic performance standard and a symmetriccarbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM) for certain energy-intensive, trade-exposed goods. US manufacturers of goodscovered by the legislation would pay a fee for carbon emissions above a benchmarkspecified for those goods. Imported, covered goods would face an analogoustariff based on how much more carbon-intensive that good was compared to the Here, we use the Global Economic Model (GEM) to assess the effects of a CBAMstylized after the CCA. We find that the CCA would have the following effects: •Shift US imports toward countries with less carbon-intensive manufacturing:Imports for covered products are reduced from countries facing the carbon tariffs(e.g., China, Mexico, and India) and increased from countries exempt from the •Reduce emissions globally, led by the United States: Emissions are projectedto decrease globally by 81 million metric tonnes (MMt) in the first year of thepolicy, with US emissions reductions of 63 MMt leading all other countries. Theincreasing fee and tightening standards lead to greater reductions over time, with140 MMT of global and 119 MMt of US emission reductions in the tenth year afterenactment. US emissions reductions result from decreased energy and emissions •Raise revenue: Annual revenues from the policy are projected to be $7.2 billion(in 2024 US$) for the covered refining and manufacturing sectors in the first yearand total $101 billion over the first ten years of the policy. Roughly 75 percent of •Reduce US outputs in covered sectors and downstream industries: The tariffshave a protective effect for US manufacturers, whilst the performance standardincreases costs for higher-intensity producers. The balance of effects is slightlynegative for US production of covered products: cement (–0.02 percent),aluminum (–1.9 percent), iron and steel (–0.6 percent), and pulp and paper (–0.3 Contents 1. Introduction 2. Legislative Overview2 3. Model Results 3 3.1. Calculated Foreign Carbon Intensities andAd ValoremRate