缩小差距：税务管理绩效如何影响合规性

Closing theGap: HowTaxAdministration Katherine Baer, Patricio Barra,andJuan Carlos Benítez WP/25/209 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit commentsand to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2025October IMF Working PaperFiscal Affairs Department Closing theGap: HowTaxAdministrationPerformanceShapesCompliancePrepared byKatherine Baer, Patricio Barra, and Juan Carlos Benitez* Authorized for distribution byVitor Gaspar IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are publishedto elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper examines the impact of tax administration performance ontaxcompliancegapsacrosscountries. Building on the Allingham and Sandmo framework, weconsiderinstitutional effectiveness and thesocial acceptability of the tax system askeydeterminants of taxpayer behavior.We useanovel panel datasetofVAT gap estimates,results of standardized tax administration diagnostic assessments(TADAT), and taxadministration institutional and operational data (ISORA). We test the modelempirically by combining theHausman-Taylor and Mundlak-Krishnakumar frameworks.Our findings reveal a robust negative relationshipbetween tax administration effectiveness—based onTADAT scores—and VAT compliance gaps.We find that RECOMMENDED CITATION:Baer, K., Barra, P., Benitez, J. C. (2025).Closing the gap: How taxadministration performance shapes compliance. IMF Working Paper, WP/25/209. International Monetary Fund, WORKING PAPERS Closing theGap: HowTaxAdministrationPerformance Prepared byKatherine Baer,Patricio Barra, andJuan Carlos Benitez Contents Glossary...............................................................................................................................................................4 A.Theoretical Motivation.........................................................................................................................7B.The Model...........................................................................................................................................9 III. Empirical Analysis.......................................................................................................................................10 A.Data..................................................................................................................................................10B. Initial Data Inspection...............................................................................................................................15C. Estimation Model.....................................................................................................................................16D. Results.....................................................................................................................................................17E. Robustness Check...................................................................................................................................20 IV. Conclusions.................................................................................................................................................21 Appendix I. Literature.......................................................................................................................................23 FIGURESFigure 1. VAT Compliance Gap à la Allingham and Sandmo (A-S)....................................................................10Figure2. Relationship between TADAT Scores and VAT Compliance Gap.......................................................15 TABLESTable 1. Summary Statistics...............................................................................................................................15Table 2. Determinants of the VAT Compliance Gap...........................................................................................18 BOXES Box 1.The Reverse Method–An Indirect VAT Compliance Gap Estimation Technique………...………………12Box 2.Understanding TADAT and Its Value for Assessing Tax Administration Performance……………………13 APPENDIX FIGURESAIII.1.VAT Compliance GAP in Selected Countries............................................................................................27 AIV.1. CIT Compliance Gap Amount: Actual vs Model.......................................................................................29 APPENDIXTABLES AI.1 Synthesis of the Literature and the Current Analysis...................................................................................24AV. 1: Dependent Variable: VAT to GDP............................................................................................................31 Glossary AEAdvanced EconomyA-SAllingham and SandmoCASEEuropean UnionCenter for Social and Economic ResearchCITCorporate Income TaxCRMComplianceRisk ManagementEMEE