汤加：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;ANDSTAFF REPORT Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation withTonga, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: •APress Releasesummarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during itsNovember 6, 2025consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IVconsultation withTonga. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration onNovember 6, 2025following discussions that ended onAugust 22,2025, with the officials ofTongaon economic developments and policies. Based oninformation available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completedonOctober 23, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. •ADebt Sustainability Analysisprepared by the staffs of the IMF and the World Bank. TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation withTonga FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Washington, DC – November 10, 2025:The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Tonga1and considered and endorsed the staffappraisal without a meeting.2The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Reportprepared for this consultation.3 Tonga’s economy expanded by 2.7 percent in FY2025, supported by robust reconstruction activity,strong remittance inflows, a rebound in tourism, and stronger-than-expected grants inflows. Growthis projected to moderate to 2.3 percent in FY2026 as reconstruction outlays normalize and supply-side constraints persist. Headline inflation has eased below the 5 percent reference rate of NationalReserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT), but core inflation has risen to nearly 10 percent, reflecting strongdomestic demand pressures. Risks in the banking sector remain contained but have increased andrequire continued vigilance. Tonga’s external position in FY2025 remained solid, with ample reserves covering about 10½months of imports. While reconstruction-related imports widened the current account deficit from3.8 percent of GDP in FY2024 to 5.2 percent in FY2025, this was financed by sizable capital transfers. The outlook is favorable but subject to significant risks. A sharper global slowdown, weakerremittances, or natural disasters could weigh on growth. Tonga also faces long-standing structuralconstraints that limit potential growth, including high outward migration, a narrow economic base,and vulnerability to climate shocks. Addressing these challenges will require sustained reforms todeepen financial markets, improve the business environment, strengthen governance—including atstate-owned financial institutions—and enhance resilience to natural disasters. Executive Board Assessment In concluding the 2025 Article IV Consultation with Tonga, Executive Directors endorsed the staff’sappraisal, as follows: Tonga’s economy continues to expand, driven by reconstruction, public investment, strongremittances, and rebound in tourism. Growth is projected to peak at 2.7 percent in FY2025 beforemoderating as large projects wind down and supply-side constraints persist. Medium-termprospects remain subdued, constrained by high disaster vulnerability, outward migration, andstructural impediments from Tonga’s small size and remoteness. The proposed fiscal stance for FY2026 is appropriately contractionary. The expansionary fiscal stancein FY2025 has supported the recovery, but with the economy on firmer footing, a shift towardrebuilding buffers in FY2026 is appropriate. Over the medium term, gradual fiscal consolidation and additional grant financing are essential toput debt on a firm downward path. Given Tonga’s high risk of debt distress, consolidation shouldfocus on mobilizing domestic revenues—including phasing out inefficient exemptions—improvingtax administration, enhancing spending efficiency, and securing grants. The authorities should alsorefrain from non-concessional borrowing, while strengthening PFM capacity to ensure effectiveproject implementation and support donor confidence. With the economy on a firmer footing and incipient signs of demand-driven price pressures,monetary policy should shift from accommodative to neutral. Given the spike in core prices and theample liquidity in the banking system, monetary policy should begin moving toward a neutralstance, with readiness to tighten further in a