黑山：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASEANDSTAFF REPORT November 2025 Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation with •APress Release. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration ona lapse-of-time basis, following discussions that ended onSeptember 26, 2025, with the officials ofMontenegroon economic developments and TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultationwith Montenegro FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •The Montenegrin economy has demonstrated resilience to multiple shocks in recentyears; Growth has moderated from an average of 9 percent during 2021–23 to 3.2 percent •Following a substantial improvement from 2021–23, the fiscal position has begun toweaken once again. Over the short-term, this can be reversed with active fiscalmanagement measures, but longer-term challenges related to aging, health, and defense •The external position is also weakening, partly driven by temporary factors. The economyneeds to rebalance away from consumption through diversification which would attracthigher foreign direct investment (FDI) to a broader range of sectors, reduce external •Financial sector policies should continue to safeguard financial stability and integrity for Washington, DC – November 20, 2025:The Executive Board of the International MonetaryFund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Montenegro on November 18, 2025.1The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this After a severe economic contraction of over 15 percent in 2020, Montenegro’s economyrebounded strongly, with growth averaging around 9 percent annually between 2021 and2023. This robust performance was largely supported by favorable external factors, includingthe global recovery in tourism and substantial inflows of affluent migrants. Real GDP growthmoderated to 3.2 percent in 2024, reflecting among other factors, a deceleration ininternational tourism. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures—as observed elsewhere in the percent. The policy landscape has been influenced by the government’sEurope Now initiatives, which have helped to reduce labor market informality and enhance financialinclusion. However, their effects on revenue collection and future wage dynamics need to be The sharp post-pandemic decline in public debt from end 2020-24—by approximately 48percentage points of GDP—was largely driven both by strong growth and inflation. Thegeneral government deficit is currently projected to widen from 2.9 percent of GDP in 2024 to3.6 percent in 2025. Without new measures to contain expenditures and mobilize additionalrevenues, the deficit is expected to exceed 4 percent of GDP by 2030 in baseline forecasts, as Real GDP growth is currently projected at 3.2 percent in 2025 and is expected to remain atsimilar levels over the forecast horizon. Average headline inflation is forecast to remainelevated at around 4 percent in 2025, before gradually converging toward 2 percent over themedium term. The current account balance is expected to weaken to some 18 percent of GDP Executive Board Assessment Executive Directors commended Montenegro’s resilience in navigating a challenging externalenvironment, underpinned by strong fundamentals and sound policy frameworks. However,they noted that the post-pandemic recovery has matured, and Montenegro must now adapt tomeet future challenges. As a small, open economy, the country remains exposed to globalshocks that affect tourism and relies on external financing to meet substantial public andexternal funding needs. Directors emphasized that strengthening the fiscal policy framework, Directors underscored the importance of aligning the fiscal strategy with the economy’scyclical position as well as the requirements of the Fiscal Responsibility Law. Theyemphasized that this calls for a recalibration of fiscal policy toward targeting a balancedprimary budget. Furthermore, Directors noted that long-term spending pressures due topopulation aging, health, climate, and defense will increase, which call for fiscal structural Directors noted that the banking system is in good health given strong capitalization, ampleliquidity, and low non-performing loan (NPL) ratios. They welcomed Montenegro’s integrationinto the Single European Payment Area (SEPA). In light of rapid growth in private-sectorlending and rising real estate prices, they encouraged the au