克罗地亚共和国：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASEANDSTAFF REPORT December2025 Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation with •APressRelease. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration onalapse-of-time basisfollowing discussions that ended onNovember4, 2025, with the officials oftheRepublic of Croatiaon economic •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. The documents listed below have been or will be separately released. Selected Issues TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201 International Monetary Fund IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultationwith Republic of Croatia FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •The Croatian economy has performed well, driven by domestic demand, but imbalances •Real GDP growth is expected to moderate slightly in the near term amid a weak externalenvironment and elevated global uncertainty, with inflation moving toward the ECB’s •Policies need to address the emerging imbalances early on and safeguard stability, build Washington, DC – December 11, 2025:The Executive Board of the International MonetaryFund (IMF) completed the 2025 Article IV consultation for Republic of Croatia,1consideredand endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.2The authorities The economy has continued to grow rapidly, still among the highest in the euro area, butimbalances are emerging. The increases in fiscal deficit driven by spending during strongeconomic growth have exacerbated demand pressures, contributing to higher inflation andcurrent account deficits. Credit growth has been rapid and housing prices have increasedstrongly. Against a weak external environment and elevated global uncertainty, staff projects Risks to growth are broadly balanced while risks to inflation are tilted to the upside. Growthwould be weaker if external demand, particularly in the tourism sector, were to weakenconsiderably, including because of worsening geopolitical or trade tensions, or lower growth ofmajor trading partners. Global shocks could also result in higher inflation, notably through domestic demand and stall disinflation. On the upside, faster implementation of reforms couldease supply side constraints, raising actual and potential growth. Executive Board Assessment The economy has continued to grow strongly but imbalances are emerging, which needto be curtailed.The procyclical fiscal policy driven by expenditure has exacerbated aggregatedemand pressures, contributing to higher inflation and worsening the current account. Theexternal position in 2024 is assessed to be moderately weaker than the level implied byfundamentals and desirable policies. Against a weak external environment and elevatedglobal uncertainty, growth is projected to moderate to a still solid level of about 3 percent in Stronger and faster fiscal consolidation is key to dampening domestic demandpressures and reducing inflation, thereby addressing the emerging imbalances earlyon.It is also essential for strengthening the country’s competitiveness and building buffersagainst future shocks and large spending needs. In the short term, restraint in public salarygrowth, improving VAT compliance, ending the remaining cost of living support measures, andstrengthening fiscal discipline at local government units can underpin the consolidation. Over Heightened risks call for continued vigilance and close monitoring to preserve financialstability.Cyclical systemic risks have risen but remain moderate and manageable, as thebanking system remains highly profitable, well capitalized, and highly liquid. Stress testssuggest that it would remain overall resilient under adverse scenarios. Further vigilanceremains nonetheless warranted given the buildup of vulnerabilities and risks, particularly in thehousing sector, as well as structural risks including relatively high sovereign-bank nexus and Fostering potential growth in the context of population aging, labor shortages and skillmismatches, as well as subdued productivity, calls for healthcare and educationreforms to boost human capital without increasing costs.Healthcare reform needs to pharmaceuticals. Education reform should aim at reducing skills mismatches, complementedby measures to increase participation in adult learning. Better integration of foreign labor REPUBLIC OF CROATIA STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2025 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION November 20, 2025 KEY ISSUES Context and outlook.Croatia has continued to grow rapidly, still among the highest inthe euro area, but imba