金融约束与绿色金融政策的有效性

Financial Constraints andthe Effectiveness of Damien Capelle, Eduardo Espuny Diaz, Divya Kirti, GermánVillegas-Bauer, and Sharan Banerjee WP/25/269 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2025DEC IMF Working PaperResearch Department Financial Constraints and the Effectiveness of Green Financial PoliciesPrepared by Damien Capelle, Eduardo Espuny Diaz, Divya Kirti, Germán Villegas-Bauer, and Sharan Authorized for distribution by Maria Soledad Martinez Peria IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper analyzes the effectiveness of green financial policies—green credit policies and freeemissions allowances—at improving emission efficiency while supporting output. We develop a heterogeneous-firm model with financial constraints and endogenous adoption of cleaner capital. The model matches keytargetedanduntargetedmomentsfromgranularmicro-data,includingthefactsthatmorefinancially constrainedfirms are less productive,more emission intensive,and respond less to carbon WORKING PAPERS Financial Constraints and the Prepared by Damien Capelle, Eduardo Espuny Diaz, Divya Kirti, GermánVillegas-Bauer, and Sharan Banerjee 1Introduction Many governments have introduced financial-sector interventions designed to steercredit and investment toward cleaner technologies and to ease firms’ transition to loweremissions while supporting growth. Such ‘green financial policies’ include measuresthat increase the supply of preferential or targeted credit for green investment, adjust- ments to collateral or risk-weighting rules, and the way permits are allocated withinemissions trading systems. Such policies have gained prominence because of the po- In this paper, we examine the effectiveness of two key green financial policies: (i)policies that expand credit or guarantees for green investment (“green credit policy”)and (ii) policies governing the distribution of emissions permits (“free permits policy”).We begin by showing that less financially constrained firms are more productive and, in turn, greener—they emit less relative to value added. Motivated by these facts, wedevelop a heterogeneous-firm general equilibrium model with endogenous vintageadoption under financial constraints, calibrated to match key empirical patterns.2The of carbon pricing. We draw on verified data on emissions for European manufacturing firms in energy-intensive industries subject to carbon pricing. Emissions data from 2005-2021 for 3,200 manufacturing firms are obtained from the European Union (EU) Emission TradingScheme (ETS).3We merge the emissions data with balance sheet and income statementdata from Orbis (Letout, 2021). Crucially, this approach allows us to use verified data on We present two new stylized facts which show that financial constraints shape en-vironmental performance at the firm level: firms that need to operate close to theirborrowing capacity tend to be less productive and dirtier. We construct net worth— capturing unused borrowing capacity—as in Ottonello and Winberry (2024). We exam-ine the relationship between net worth, productivity, and emission efficiency within Motivated by these stylized facts,we propose a tractable continuous timeheterogeneous-firm general equilibrium model of investment across different capi-tal vintages, subject to financial constraints. Firms vary on two dimensions in themodel: stochastically varying productivity, and net worth accumulated through re-tained earnings. Importantly, firms face leverage limits that depend on their net worth (Capelle et al., 2024). The key tradeoff that firms face in the model is between investing in more efficientcapital vintages and scaling up their capital stock. On one hand, firms prefer bettervintages because they are more productive and help cut energy consumption andemissions. On the other hand, better vintages are also more expensive. This generates We carefully calibrate the model to allow for quantitative counterfactual analysis. Wematch important moments of the empirical distributions of firm size and productivity,as well as evidence from the literature on the extent to which capital embedded tech- Our model quantitatively matches our motivating stylized facts as well as additionaluntargeted empirical evidence on the impact of carbon pricing on firms’ emissions bylevels of net worth. In the simulations from the steady state distribution in the model, firms with higher net worth are more productive, and more productive firms have loweremission intensities. To further validate the model, we show empirically that firms’ability to adjust to exogenous changes in carbon prices depends on their level of net Counterfactual simulations from the calibrated model yield