2026-27：逼近极限

Content Page 3-4Executive Summary Page 5-9Global outlook: Exceeding previous expectations butdownside risks remain Page 10-12Inflation and central banks: divergence ahead Page 13-14Developed markets: running on two speeds Page 15-16Emerging markets: selectivity after a year of rally Page 17-19Corporates: Earnings to continue to grow amidfragmentation and capex divergence Page 20-28Capital markets outlook: Resilience despite late-cycleconditions ExecutiveSummary Ludovic SubranChief Investment Officer& Chief Economist •Global GDP growth remains strong... for now.It is expected to reach+2.9% in 2026 and +2.8% in 2027, following a robust +3% in 2025. Carryovergrowth from a strong 2025 in the US and China, as well as sustained Jordi Basco CarreraHead of Private Markets InvestmentStrategyt Ana BoataHead of Economic Research •The US economy is increasingly running on two speeds.The impact ofthe trade war has been milder, at just -0.6pp in 2025 vs -1.6pp estimatedin Q2. This improvement is due to reduced tariffs (to 11% effective from27% announced on 2 April) through sector exclusions and strategic tradedeals with key partners. Additionally, the information and communicationsector, including AI, has fueled more than half of US GDP growth in 2025, Maxime Darmet CucchiariniSenior Economist for UK, US & Francemaxime.darmet@allianz-trade.com Lluis Dalmau TaulesEconomist for Africa & Middle Eastlluis.dalmau@allianz-trade.com Guillaume DejeanSenior Sector Advisor Bjoern GriesbachHead of Macroeconomic and CapitalMarkets Research •China’s export growth remains the front-runner – despite the trade war! Growth has exceeded expectations, buoyed by stronger-than-anticipatedexternal demand (and soft imports). This surge was driven by frontloadingfrom the US in the first half of the year, strategic rerouting to circumventtariffs, expanding market shares in the rest of the world, a weaker currencyand competitive prices. Meanwhile, domestic demand still struggles Jasmin GröschlSenior Economist for Europe Michael HeilmannSenior Investment Strategist America HernandezSenior Investment Strategist •The Eurozone outlook remains par for the course, with moderate growthahead amid structural challenges.GDP growth is expected at +1.1% in2026 after +1.4% in 2025. Excluding volatile national accounts in Ireland,the Eurozone economy will accelerate from +0.9% in 2025 to +1.2% in 2026and +1.3% in 2027. Germany’s economy should reach +0.9% growth in 2026– a strong rebound after three consecutive years of stagnation or recession Alexander HirtHead of Credit and Equity Bernhard HirschHead of Rates and Emerging Markets Françoise HuangSenior Economist for Asia Pacificfrancoise.huang@allianz-trade.com •Global trade surprised on the upside as companies stepped up to theplate with rerouting and mitigation strategies.Half of the improvementin our forecast for trade growth (from +2% to +3.5% in 2025 and from +0.6%to +1.3% in 2026) has been driven by lower tariffs, firms’ rerouting and Patrick KrizanSenior Investment Strategist Ano KuhanathanHead of Corporate Research Maria LatorreSector Advisor, B2Bmaria.latorre@allianz-trade.com •Emerging markets are not just watching from the sidelines: They remainresilient overall, still enjoying a more positive cycle than developed marketsand generally solid external positions.EMs overall remain resilient, still enjoyinga more positive cycle than developed markets and generally solid externalpositions. Support from a lower USD and the Fed easing cycle had allowed manyEM central banks to cut rates more than expected in 2025. But some countries Pierre LebardPublic affairs Officer Maxime LemerleLead Advisor, Insolvency Researchmaxime.lemerle@allianz-trade.com Yao LuInvestment Strategist Lina MantheyInvestment Strategist Maddalena MartiniSenior Economist for Italy, Greece, Spain& Beneluxx •Monetary and fiscal policy: supportive in the US, neutral in Europe.We stronglybelieve the Fed will end its easing cycle sooner than markets expect, with theFederal Funds rate to settle at 3.5% after one more 25bps cut in Q1. Sticky coreinflation and accelerating growth will prevent rates from going too far belowthe Taylor rule. In contrast, the ECB is poised to hold rates at 2.0%, with riskstitled to the downside. On fiscal policy, the US benefits from a tangible growth Luca MonetaSenior Economist for Emerging Markets Giovanni ScarpatoEconomist for Central & Eastern Europe Sivagaminathan SivasubramanianESG and Data Analystsivagaminathan.sivasubramanian@allianz- •Corporates are going the distance in 2026 with strong momentumUS earningsrose +15% in Q3 2025, and global AI capex is set to reach USD571bn. Europehas rebounded, led by tech and pharma, while auto lags. Balance sheets aresolid, though refinancing will be costlier. As many corporates have deleveraged,they have room to increase borrowing to fund necessary capex. Insolvencies are Katharina UtermöhlHead of Thematic and Policy Researchkath