黄金的避险吸引力如何推动金价创下历史新高

⻩⾦的避险吸引⼒如何推动⾦价创下历史新⾼ One kilogram gold bars at the Conclude Zrt bullion dealer arranged in Budapest,Hungary.Source: Bloomberg 在匈⽛利布达佩斯，Conclude Zrt贵⾦属交易商陈列的⼀公⽄⾦条。来源：彭博 ByJack RyanandYvonne Yue Li December 22, 2025 at 11:16 PM GMT+8 Translate翻译 For centuries, gold has been the go-to haven asset in times of political and economicuncertainty. Its status as a reliably high-value commodity that can be transported easilyand sold anywhere offers a sense of safety when everything else is in turmoil. ⼏个世纪以来，黄⾦⼀直是在政治和经济不确定时期⾸选的避险资产。作为⼀种价值稳定、易于运输且可在任何地⽅出售的⼤宗商品，在其他⼀切陷⼊动荡时，它能带来安全感。 Investors flocked to bullion in 2025, in particular gold-backed exchange-traded funds,driven by PresidentDonald Trump’s trade war, his threats to the independence of the USFederal Reserve, geopolitical tensions and concerns over ballooning government debt.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K Central banks also continued to add to their gold reserves. 2025年，投资者纷纷涌向⾦条，尤其是黄⾦⽀持的交易型基⾦。推动因素包括总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易战、他对美国联邦储备制度独⽴性的威胁、地缘政治紧张局势，以及对政府债务不断膨胀的担忧。各国央⾏也继续增加其黄⾦储备。 This prompted the precious metal to notch a series of price records andeclipseitsinflation-adjusted peak from 1980. There was a marked price retreat in October amidfears that the rally had overheated. But the momentum quickly rebuilt on expectations offurther US interest rate cuts and gold smashed through $4,400 per troy ounce toward theend of the year to reach a newall-time high. 这促使这种贵⾦属创下⼀系列价格纪录，并超过了经通胀调整后的1980年⾼点。10⽉，因担忧涨势过热，⾦价出现明显回落。但在进⼀步降息的预期推动下，动能迅速重建，黄⾦在年底前突破每⾦衡盎司4400美元，刷新历史新⾼。 Gold Surged to an All-Time High in 2025 2025年⻩⾦飙升⾄历史新⾼微信公众号 404K The spot price surpassed $4,400 an ounce in December微信公众号 404K 12⽉，现货价格突破每盎司4,400美元 注：截⾄2025年12⽉22⽇ Why is gold considered a safe haven? 为什么⻩⾦被视为避险资产？ For modern investors, it’s primarily because of gold’s stability and liquidity rather thanany intrinsic utility.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 对现代投资者⽽⾔，这主要是因为黄⾦的稳定性和流动性，⽽⾮任何内在⽤途。 Bullion is seen as a hedge against inflation, when the purchasing power of currencies iseroded. Price increases and the labor market in the US have beenin the spotlightas 黄⾦被视为对抗通胀的⼯具，当货币的购买⼒被侵蚀时尤为如此。由于特朗普不断向美联储施压，要求其按⾃⼰的意愿⾏事并降息，美国的物价上涨和劳动⼒市场状况⼀直备受关注。 Gold, which pays no interest, typically becomes more attractive in a lower-rateenvironment, as the opportunity cost of holding it versus interest-earning assetsdecreases. Investors have been betting that the Fed will trim rates further in 2026, andthat the next chair of the central bank — due to be appointed by Trump — will take a moredovish approach to monetary policy thanJerome Powell. 黄⾦本⾝不⽀付利息，因此在低利率环境下通常更具吸引⼒，因为持有黄⾦相⽐持有可⽣息资产的机会成本会下降。投资者⼀直押注美联储将在2026年进⼀步降息，同时预计由特朗普任命的下⼀任央⾏⾏长将采取⽐杰罗姆·鲍威尔更为鸽派的货币政策⽴场。 Investors have also turned to gold, silver and other precious metals as part of the so-calleddebasement trade. Runaway budget deficits around the world have shaken theirtrust in other traditional shelters from market gyrations, namelysovereign debtandcurrencies.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 投资者也将⽬光投向黄⾦、⽩银及其他贵⾦属，作为所谓“货币贬值交易”的⼀部分。全球范围内失控的财政⾚字动摇了他们对其他传统避险⼯具的信⼼，尤其是主权债务和货币。 Gold has historically been negatively correlated with the US dollar — it’s priced in dollars,so when the greenback weakens, bullion becomes cheaper for holders of othercurrencies. 黄⾦在历史上与美元呈负相关——它以美元计价，因此当美元⾛弱时，对于持有其他货币的投资者来说，⾦条就会变得更便宜。 观看：⻩⾦上涨对全球⾦融体系究竟意味着什么。 Is it just investors fueling gold’s rally? 只是投资者在推动⻩⾦的涨势吗？ Beyond market movements, owning gold is deeply rooted in Indian and Chinese cultures— two of the world’s largest markets for the metal — where jewelry, bars and other formsof bullion arepassed downthrough generations as a symbol of prosperity and security.Indian households own about 25,000 metric tons of gold, more than five times what’sstored in theUS depository at Fort Knox. 除了市场⾛势，持有黄⾦在印度和中国⽂化中根深蒂固——这两个国家是全球最⼤的黄⾦市场——在那⾥，⾸饰、⾦条以及其他形式的⾦银被视为繁荣与安全的象征，代代相传。印度家庭持有约2.5万吨黄⾦，是美国诺克斯堡⾦库储量的五倍以上。 Physical buyers are famously sensitive to prices. When gold’s appeal to investors infinancial markets starts to fade, buyers of jewelry and bars often step in to grab a bargain,putting a floor under prices in the process.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 实物买家对价格的敏感性向来众所周知。当黄⾦对⾦融市场投资者的吸引⼒开始减弱时，购买⾦饰和⾦条的买家往往会趁机捡便宜，从⽽在过程中为价格设定⼀个底部。 Why have central banks been buying more gold? 为什么各国央⾏⼀直在增持⻩⾦？ The metal’s blistering price rally since the start of 2024 has partly been driven by hugepurchases by central banks, particularly in emerging markets as they seek to reduce theirdependency on the dollar, the world’s primary reserve currency. ⾃2024年初以来，黄⾦价格的猛烈上涨在⼀定程度上是由各国央⾏的⼤规模购⾦推动的，尤其是新兴市场国家，它们正试图降低对美元这⼀全球主要储备货币的依赖。 Central banks have been net buyers of gold for more than a decade but accelerated theirpurchases in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As the US and its allies frozeRussian central bank funds held in their countries, it underscored how foreign currencyassets are vulnerable to sanctions. 各国央⾏成为黄⾦的净买家已超过⼗年，但在俄罗斯⼊侵乌克兰之后加快了购⼊步伐。美国及其盟友冻结了俄罗斯央⾏在其国家持有的资⾦，这凸显了外币资产在制裁⾯前的脆弱性。 The People’s Bank of China has been on a buying streak,