2026年全球宏观展望：波动性上升，浪潮消退

Rising Volatility, Fading Tide Bingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk In 2025, restocking demand, AI boom,policy rate cuts and fiscal stimulushelped the global economy recover from the tariff shock. In 1H26,politicalpressures fromUS midterm elections, European and Japanese defenserevitalizationagenda, and China’s growth-stabilizationefforts are likely tokeep policies accommodative.However, with interest rates near neutrallevels, inflation still above target, government debt ratios rising high anddemand front-loaded by prior easing,effective policy space and marginal Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk efficacyare diminishing; while the AI boom has boosted productivity and rebound in 1H26as tariff headwinds fade and fiscal tax cuts and monetaryeasing provide support,beforedeceleratingin 2H26amid diminishing policyimpulse and a rebound in inflation. Unemployment ratio will moderatelyriseto 4.5%. Consumption growth is expected to slow with deepening K-shapeddivide. AI investment should remain robust. Home sales might pick up whileprices will be flat. Inflation may first dip and then rebound. Fed may remaindovish in 1H26 before a cautious shift in 2H26, with possibletworate cuts Eurozone GDP growth may slow from 1.4% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026. Globaltrade slowdown andtighter financial conditionswould weigh on growth, butlow interest rates,resilientlabor markets, healthyprivate-sectorbalancesheets, and fiscal support should offset risks. Housing market will continueto recover. Inflation would trend toward 2%. ECB may cut rates once while Japan's GDP growth may slow from 1.3% in 2025 to 0.6% in 2026 as low-base effect fades, global trade slows and rates rise. Wage growth shouldsupport consumption and housing market would remain hot with lowergains.Higher export priceswill lift nominal export growth,whilevolumessoften. Inflation might fall to 2.1%. BOJmayhikerates twice to 1% by year-end. Fiscal deficit ratio might rise to 3.4%, focusing on social, tech and China's GDP growthmayslow from 5% in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026. New policystimulus might be launched in 1Q26 after GDP growth remains below 5% in2H25. 2026maysee slowing exports growth, narrowing property declines,flat consumption growth andmoderatinginfrastructure investment. Broadfiscal deficit ratio might reach 8.5% in 2026. Monetary policy will remainaccommodative with RRR cuts by 50bps and LPR cuts by 20bps. Treasury Contents The US.............................................................................................3Economic Outlook............................................................................................................3Macro Policies..................................................................................................................6Financial Markets.............................................................................................................7 Eurozone........................................................................................10 Economic Outlook..........................................................................................................10Macro Policies................................................................................................................12Financial Markets...........................................................................................................13 Economic Outlook..........................................................................................................15Macro Policies................................................................................................................18 Economic Outlook..........................................................................................................21Macro Policies................................................................................................................24 Appendices....................................................................................28 TheUS TheUS economic growth is projected to slow modestly in 2026. In 2025, tariffimpacts,government spending cuts, and a decline in residential investment led to a significantslowdown in US economic growth. In 1H26, QoQ economic growth is expected to reboundtemporarily, driven by a low base effect, tax cuts, monetary easing, and amoderation inthe drag from net imports. In the second half, growthmayfall back againwithdiminishingpolicy effects, the emergence of demand exhaustion, and inflation bottoming out andstarting to rise. The labor marketmaycontinue to cooldown, with the unemployment rateedging up to 4.5%. AI-driven substitution for entry-level positionsmaynoticeably push upyouth unemployment rate. Consumption growthmaydecline, with K-shaped divergence Economic Outlook US economic growth is projected to slow modestly.We expectUS GDP growthtodecrease from 1.9% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026. In 2025, US economic growthshowed anoticeable slowdown, with GDP growth falli