汽车半导体市场追踪：软件定义汽车（SDV）的胜利将于26年开始起飞

Auto Semi market tracker - SDV winsstarting to take off in '26 SDV launches taking off over '26, fueling Auto Semi content growth Growing semiconductor content in the powertrain driven by a rising mix of xEV carsin global production and new registrations has been a major driver of Auto Semiindustry growth so far. While we see China NEV growth moderating (withpenetration reaching >50% of new cars) and US momentum dropping off sharplysince October (following subsidy cuts), European EV momentum remains verystrong. While we expect xEV to remain a healthy growth driver for the Auto Semisindustry in '26 (albeit slower) and medium term, we see another major contentdriver emerging next year in the form of software defined vehicles (SDVs). Chineseand Western OEMs are in the process of launching these new vehicle architecturesin 2026 and we expect a first recognizable impact on Auto Semi industry growth inH2. With the average $ content per car expected to expand from a $750 ICE todayto ~$1600 for a BEV in 2030 (~$2500 high-end), we see about half of this content Q4 could see some unsustainable temporary destocking effects We believe general component and also Auto semi destocking across the supplychain has largely played out in recent quarters. Our inventory analysis of the tier 1auto supply chain shows only a slight increase in $ inventory value sequentially inQ3/25 while inventory as a percentage of sales in Q3/25 remains largely unchanged.Our industry conversations point to several tier 1s being fairly happy with currentinventory levels now and not seeing big imbalances on the Auto semis side. 28 November 2025Semiconductors We value stocks in the sector on a P/E, EV/Sales and/or DCF basis, benchmarking themultiples vs. peers and/or expected growthrates. Key downside/upside sector risks: amacro/auto production slowdown orimprovement, and design and/or market Expecting sub-seasonal, slightly negative Q4 industry growth Looking back at the recent near-term picture and relative performance in Q3 (in USdollars terms), Auto semi players saw revenue growth of 5% sequentially,outperforming the historical five-year average (normalized for pandemic-perioddistortion) of +3% q/q, thanks to improving inventory headwinds and a limitedimpact from US tariffs, also well supported by growth in China and European EVs.On a y/y basis, the deceleration stood at -1%, still significantly below the five-yearaverage growth of 15%. Trends by companies are interesting in hindsight withindustry bellwethers such as STMicro (+11% q/q), Texas Instruments (+10% q/q),onsemi (+7% q/q), Qualcomm (+7% q/q), NXP (+6% q/q) and Infineon (+6% q/q)largely outperforming the overall industry while Analog Devices (+1% q/q) saw a Source : Bloomberg Finance LP (pricing as on 27thNov 2025) Source : Bloomberg Finance LP (pricing as on 27thNov 2025) Auto Semi revenues down 1% y/y in Q3/25; 2% y/y growth expected for Source : Company data, Deutsche Bank, (in US$ m);*ADI+Maxim PF numbers Long-term content-driven growth story remains intact,cyclical bottom behind us Q3/25 Auto Semi revenue performance Source : Company data ; Growth is calculated on US$ based revenue; *IFX+Cypress PF numbers are usedfor growth calculation Source : Company data, Deutsche Bank Source : Company data, Deutsche Bank; ADI +Maxim PF numbers are used for calculation Source : Company data, Deutsche Bank So who has gained share over time? Source : Company data, Deutsche Bank Auto Semis sales exposure and market share by product 28 November 2025Semiconductors Source : Source : DB estimates, company data (based on FY24 revenue) Source : Company data (based on FY25 revenue) Source : Infineon, company data, S&P Global (based on May 2025) Source : DB estimates, company data (2020); *transceiver and controller Source : Infineon, company data, TechInsights (March 2025) Automotive Semi content the major driver of industrygrowth 28 November 2025Semiconductors Auto Semi supplier CapEx expected to normalize in2025/26e Automotive end market - mixed trends in BEVs with Europestrong The global EV market presents a differentiated landscape across key regions. In Western Europe, while the overall car market registrations grew ~5% y/y inOctober, BEV and PHEV registrations demonstrated robust growth of 45% y/y and49% y/y, respectively. As a result, market share of BEVs and PHEVs expanded to18.3% and 10.5%, respectively. The EU5 electrified car market (BEV+PHEV) held onto a firm footing in October, registering 46% y/y growth. On a ytd basis, we find it TheUSautomotive market also exhibited strong sales with 1.28m units (vs. ~1.27munits in September), with SAAR reaching ~15.5m (vs. DBe of ~15.6m), having somenegative impact from EV sales in the month, given the significant pull forward inSeptember due to the tax credit cut by the Trump administration. However, we keepour full-year SAAR estimate unchanged at 16.3m as well as 2026's estimated TheChinesepassenger car market sustain