汽车半导体市场追踪：软件定义汽车（SDV）的胜利将在26年开始起飞

Auto Semi market tracker - SDV winsstarting to take off in '26 Johannes Schaller SDV launches taking off over '26, fueling Auto Semi content growth Research Analyst Growing semiconductor content in the powertrain driven by a rising mix of xEV carsin global production and new registrations has been a major driver of Auto Semiindustry growth so far. While we see China NEV growth moderating (withpenetration reaching >50% of new cars) and US momentum dropping off sharplysince October (following subsidy cuts), European EV momentum remains verystrong. While we expect xEV to remain a healthy growth driver for the Auto Semisindustry in '26 (albeit slower) and medium term, we see another major contentdriver emerging next year in the form of software defined vehicles (SDVs). Chineseand Western OEMs are in the process of launching these new vehicle architecturesin 2026 and we expect a first recognizable impact on Auto Semi industry growth inH2. With the average $ content per car expected to expand from a $750 ICE todayto ~$1600 for a BEV in 2030 (~$2500 high-end), we see about half of this contentgrowth driven by the powertrain and the other half largely by the adoption of SDVarchitectures and ADAS features. In other words, we see average semiconductorcontent growth per car well underpinned in the high single-digits to low-teensgoing forward even with moderate xEV adoption assumptions. While parts of AutoSemis are still seeing inventory corrections (in some cases driven by unsustainablebehavior by OEMs/tier 1s to optimize working capital into year end), we expectdecent ~11% Auto Semi industry $ growth for 2026, following -1% in '25. We prefercompanies with strong design win momentum in SDVs and healthy xEV drivers (i.e.the right brand/model exposure) and our top picks are Infineon, NXP and onsemi. Melissa Weathers Research Analyst Research Analyst Edison Yu Research Analyst Kunal Gupta Research Associate DJ SebastianResearch Associate Q4 could see some unsustainable temporary destocking effects We believe general component and also Auto semi destocking across the supplychain has largely played out in recent quarters. Our inventory analysis of the tier 1auto supply chain shows only a slight increase in $ inventory value sequentially inQ3/25 while inventory as a percentage of sales in Q3/25 remains largely unchanged.Our industry conversations point to several tier 1s being fairly happy with currentinventory levels now and not seeing big imbalances on the Auto semis side.However, on the OEM side and for some tier 1s, it appears like there might be a near-term risk of unsustainable destocking into year-end, based on commentary fromour industry conversations. This could weigh more on certain players in the industrythan others, depending on exposure. 28 November 2025SemiconductorsGlobal Semiconductors We value stocks in the sector on a P/E, EV/Sales and/or DCF basis, benchmarking themultiples vs. peers and/or expected growthrates. Key downside/upside sector risks: amacro/auto production slowdown orimprovement, and design and/or marketshare losses or gains. Expecting sub-seasonal, slightly negative Q4 industry growth Looking back at the recent near-term picture and relative performance in Q3 (in USdollars terms), Auto semi players saw revenue growth of 5% sequentially,outperforming the historical five-year average (normalized for pandemic-perioddistortion) of +3% q/q, thanks to improving inventory headwinds and a limitedimpact from US tariffs, also well supported by growth in China and European EVs.On a y/y basis, the deceleration stood at -1%, still significantly below the five-yearaverage growth of 15%. Trends by companies are interesting in hindsight withindustry bellwethers such as STMicro (+11% q/q), Texas Instruments (+10% q/q),onsemi (+7% q/q), Qualcomm (+7% q/q), NXP (+6% q/q) and Infineon (+6% q/q)largely outperforming the overall industry while Analog Devices (+1% q/q) saw amodest growth and Renesas was down by 4% q/q. Among smaller companies,Rohm (+9% q/q), Melexis (+5% q/q), Monolithic Power (+4% q/q), Ambarella (+3%q/q) & Nvidia (+1% q/q) saw a moderate growth, while Elmos, Mobileye and LatticeSemi witnessed a flattish sequential growth. For Q4/25e, our bottom-up modelsuggests a -1% q/q decline, below the five-year average performance (+3% q/q),due to temporary and likely unsustainable destocking/FCF optimization effects intoyear-end. Having said that, this is still a trend improvement to +2% on a y/y basis. 28 November 2025SemiconductorsGlobal Semiconductors Source : Bloomberg Finance LP (pricing as on 27thNov 2025) 28 November 2025SemiconductorsGlobal Semiconductors Auto Semi revenues down 1% y/y in Q3/25; 2% y/y growth expected forQ4/25e Long-term content-driven growth story remains intact,cyclical bottom behind us 28 November 2025SemiconductorsGlobal Semiconductors Source : Deutsche Bank 28 November 2025SemiconductorsGlobal Semiconductors Source : Company data, Deutsche Bank Sourc