新兴市场的韧性：好运还是好政策？

Emerging MarketResilience: Good Luck orGood Policies? Marijn A. Bolhuis, Francesco Grigoli, Marcin Kolasa, RolandMeeks, Andrea F. Presbitero, Zhao Zhang WP/25/256 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025DEC IMF Working PaperResearchDepartment Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies?Prepared byMarijn A. Bolhuis, Francesco Grigoli, Marcin Kolasa, Roland Meeks, Andrea F. Presbitero,andZhao Zhang Authorized for distribution byDeniz IganDecember 2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:Emerging markets have shown remarkable resilience during risk-off episodes in recent years.While favorable external conditions---good luck---contributed to this resilience, improvements in policyframeworks---good policies---played a critical role in bolstering the capacity of emerging markets to withstandthe adverse consequences of these events. Improvements in monetary policy implementation and credibilityhave reduced reliance on foreign exchange (FX) interventions and capital flow management measures,andstricter macroprudential regulation also contributed to less FX interventions. Also, central banks have becomeless sensitive to fiscal interference and hold sway over domestic borrowing conditions. Looking ahead,countries with robust frameworks faceeasier policy trade-offs and are better positioned to navigate risk-offepisodes. In contrast, economies with weaker frameworks risk de-anchoring inflation expectations and largeroutput losses if monetary tightening is delayed, especially when persistentprice pressures emerge. In thesesettings, FX interventions offer only temporary relief and are less necessary when policy frameworks aresound. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Bolhiuset al. (2025) Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies?* This draft: December 2, 2025 Abstract Emerging markets have shown remarkable resilience during risk-off episodes in recent years.While favorable external conditions—good luck—contributed to this resilience, improvements inpolicy frameworks—good policies—played a critical role in bolstering the capacity of emergingmarkets to withstand the adverse consequences of these events. Improvements in monetary pol-icy implementation and credibility have reduced reliance on foreign exchange (FX) interventionsand capital flow management measures, and stricter macroprudential regulation also contributedto less FX interventions. Also, central banks have become less sensitive to fiscal interference andhold sway over domestic borrowing conditions.Looking ahead, countries with robust frame-works face easier policy trade-offs and are better positioned to navigate risk-off episodes. In con-trast, economies with weaker frameworks risk de-anchoring inflation expectations and larger out-put losses if monetary tightening is delayed, especially when persistent price pressures emerge.In these settings, FX interventions offer only temporary relief and are less necessary when policyframeworks are sound. JEL Classification:F14, F60, I18Keywords:Emerging markets; Risk-off shocks; Monetary policy; FX interventions 1Introduction Emerging markets (EMs) have historically been vulnerable to global financial shocks, often experi-encing significant economic and financial instability during periods of heightened risk aversion—commonly referred to as “risk-off” episodes (Caballero and Kamber, 2019; Miranda-Agrippino andRey, 2020a).These shifts in the risk appetite of global investors have typically triggered capitaloutflows, leading to currency depreciations that tightened financial conditions, owing to currencymismatches and increased borrowing costs (Chariet al., 2023; Goldberg and Krogstrup, 2023). The1997–98 Asian crisis provides the canonical illustration: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, andThailand all experienced abrupt reversals in capital flows, sharp currency depreciations, and severebalance-sheet stress as global investors withdrew from the region. As a result, risk-off shocks havebeen akin to supply shocks because they ultimately cause output losses and inflation surges, compli-cating policy trade-offs. These dynamics have defined the dilemma faced by EMs, which generallycould not react to a shock leading to a capital outflow that depreciates the currency with monetarypolicy easing, because of price and financial stability concerns. Instead, policymakers often neededto tighten policies, exacerbating output losses and preventing currencies from depreciating, therebyfueling “fear of floating