新兴市场的韧性：好运还是好政策？

Emerging MarketResilience: Good Luck or Marijn A. Bolhuis, Francesco Grigoli, Marcin Kolasa, RolandMeeks, Andrea F. Presbitero, Zhao Zhang WP/25/256 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2025DEC IMF Working PaperResearchDepartment Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies?Prepared byMarijn A. Bolhuis, Francesco Grigoli, Marcin Kolasa, Roland Meeks, Andrea F. Presbitero, Authorized for distribution byDeniz Igan IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:Emerging markets have shown remarkable resilience during risk-off episodes in recent years.While favorable external conditions---good luck---contributed to this resilience, improvements in policyframeworks---good policies---played a critical role in bolstering the capacity of emerging markets to withstandthe adverse consequences of these events. Improvements in monetary policy implementation and credibilityhave reduced reliance on foreign exchange (FX) interventions and capital flow management measures,andstricter macroprudential regulation also contributed to less FX interventions. Also, central banks have become Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies? Marijn A. BolhuisFrancesco GrigoliIMFIMF Roland MeeksAndrea F. PresbiteroIMFIMF and CEPR This draft: December 2, 2025 Abstract Emerging markets have shown remarkable resilience during risk-off episodes in recent years.While favorable external conditions—good luck—contributed to this resilience, improvements inpolicy frameworks—good policies—played a critical role in bolstering the capacity of emergingmarkets to withstand the adverse consequences of these events. Improvements in monetary pol-icy implementation and credibility have reduced reliance on foreign exchange (FX) interventionsand capital flow management measures, and stricter macroprudential regulation also contributed 1Introduction Emerging markets (EMs) have historically been vulnerable to global financial shocks, often experi-encing significant economic and financial instability during periods of heightened risk aversion—commonly referred to as “risk-off” episodes (Caballero and Kamber, 2019; Miranda-Agrippino and Rey, 2020a).These shifts in the risk appetite of global investors have typically triggered capitaloutflows, leading to currency depreciations that tightened financial conditions, owing to currencymismatches and increased borrowing costs (Chariet al., 2023; Goldberg and Krogstrup, 2023). The1997–98 Asian crisis provides the canonical illustration: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand all experienced abrupt reversals in capital flows, sharp currency depreciations, and severe Recent experience marks a departure from this historical pattern, with many EMs displaying re-markable resilience—both in terms of financial and economic conditions—to external shocks (Kalemli- Özcan and Unsal, 2023; Hardyet al., 2024).1For instance, during the 2018–19 trade tension between the US and China, many large EMs—such as Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines,and South Africa—experienced only moderate currency depreciation and limited exchange-marketpressure relative to earlier episodes of comparable global risk retrenchment. Similarly, during theacute stress associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, despite record portfolio outflows and a global Two hypotheses have emerged to explain this improved performance. One is simply that EMsgot lucky: steady growth in advanced economies (AEs), favorable terms of trade, and easier finan-cial conditions after the global financial crisis (GFC) helped mitigate external pressures. Moreover, despite rapid and sizable monetary tightening by major central banks, the post-pandemic global fi-nancial environment remained broadly accommodative, allowing many emerging market sovereign Another, yet complementary, explanation is the “good policies” argument.This attributes re- capital flow management (CFM) frameworks. While different frameworks and exchange rate regimesmay be appropriate according to country circumstances, the adoption of inflation targeting and macroeconomic conditions (Obstfeldet al., 2019). As monetary policy frameworks matured, long- ciation to domestic prices and the persistence of inflation (Campa and Goldberg, 2005; Bemset al.,2021; Carriere-Swallowet al., 2021).3Meanwhile, tighter macroprudential policies contributed to re- In this paper, we take stock of emerging market performance in output and inflation stabilizationduring risk-off episodes over almost three decades and illustrate the appropriate policy responsesconditional on the quality of policy frameworks. To do that, we first identify risk-off episodes us- ing an algorithm-based approach an