美国_新闻_研究_2026_展望_A_网站_视频

2026 Outlook: A delicate pivot SIGNATURE How will new Fed leadership shape the yield curve in 2026?Can inflation moderate amid easier fiscal policy? Will Fedbalance sheet policy and regulatory changes alter the marketdynamics? Is demand strong enough to absorb rising long- Anshul Pradhan+1 212 412 3681anshul.pradhan@barclays.comBCI, US Amrut Nashikkar+1 212 412 1848amrut.nashikkar@barclays.com Jonathan Hill, CFA+1 212 526 3497jonathan.hill@barclays.com Samuel Earl+ 1 212 526 5426samuel.earl@barclays.com Andres Mok, CFA+1 212 526 8690andres.mok@barclays.com Demi Hu, CFA+1 212 526 7398demi.hu@barclays.com Overview A curious balance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Aftera turbulent 2025, the US enters 2026 in a curious balance ofsofteninglabor markets vs.stable growth, falling inflation vs. easier fiscal policy, and broad-based demand vs. risingduration supply. The front end should rally as the Fed cuts, but long-term yields should remain Eveline Dong+1 212 526 9576eveline.dong@barclays.com Supply and Demand Not all about Treasury issuance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 We expect net debt issuance to fall in 2026 led by Treasuries in the front to intermediate sector,but long-end supply should rise, led by investment grade corporate bonds. UST demand shouldremain robust with banks stepping up following SLR relief, but primarily up to the intermediate Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 76.Completed: 01-Dec-25, 20:22 GMTReleased: 02-Dec-25, 12:00 GMTRestricted - ExternalCompleted: 01-Dec-25, 20:22 GMT Released: 02-Dec-25, 12:00 GMTRestricted - External Inflation Markets Year-end tips for TIPS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 We recommend longs in 10y breakevens going into 2026 given the potential for inflation riskpremium to rise ahead of several known risk events. We compare Barclays' CPI forecasts in 2026 Money Markets Easing pressures in 2026. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 We see funding pressures easing in 2026 as bank balance sheet capacity grows and with the Fedlikely becoming a substantial buyer of T-bills. Enhancements to the SRF would also help reduceupside funding risks. Rules on digital assets and the pace of adoption will also be key themes in Swap Spreads Turning the corner. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Regulatory tailwinds should ease balance sheet conditions and improve dealer intermediation.Coupled with the Fed's buying T-bills and easing funding pressures, this favors front-to-belly Volatility Anchored, but exposed: Rates volatility is underpricing twin tail risks. 63 US rates vol is low, but markets are underpricing downside risks from a deeper Fed easing cycleand upside risks from fiscal expansion, and new sources of vol demand. Trade ideas: 6m1yreceiver spreads, 2s10s curve caps, 2y1y + 3y1y vs. 2y2y option triangle and buying 3y10y vs. Overview A curious balance SIGNATURE Aftera turbulent 2025, the US enters 2026 in a curiousbalance ofsofteninglabor markets vs. stable growth, fallinginflation vs. easier fiscal policy, and broad-based demand vs.rising duration supply. The front end should rally as the Fed Anshul Pradhan+1 212 412 3681anshul.pradhan@barclays.com Demi Hu, CFA+1 212 526 7398demi.hu@barclays.com Key Takeaways •In 2025, the administration's policies triggered significant volatility, with fears ranging from arecession to "Sell America," a fiscal crisis and threats to Fed independence. Ultimately, yieldsmoved lower across the curve, as fiscal concerns eased and labor marketssoftened.Despite •We forecast2y, 5y, 10y, and 30y yields to end 2026 at 3.1%, 3.5%, 4.0%, and 4.7%,respectively, 40bp below forwards at the front end and 10bp at the long end (Figure 3). The2s30s Treasury curve should steepen to 160bp. Front-end yields should decline as the Fedcuts towards neutral and the market prices in a premium for more aggressive cuts. Term •Risks to the outlook:Downside risks include a deeper Fed easing cycle if labor marketsweaken more sharply or the Fed reaction function turns decisively dovish, which would pullfront-end yields below 3% and accelerate bull steepening. Upside risks stem from renewed Nominal GDP growthshould moderate over 2026, with real GDP growth near 2% andinflation falling towards the Fed's 2% target, pulling front-end yields lower. The outlook forpersonal income and consumption growth is modest and AI investments should boostgrowth, but l