悉尼经济租金在2025年达到峰值

Estimates of the economic rent for a premium office tower in SydneyCBD are significantly above current and forecast rent levels. Thisindicates the severe constraints on development feasibility, which areleading to a drought of new office supply over the coming years. Q4 2025 Click here tosubscribe Key insights Economic rents have surged since 2021 as a mix of rising costs andmarket pressures put the brakes on new office development. Theresulting supply drought will be a defining feature that will shape theSydney CBD office market for years to come. ALISTAIR READSENIOR ECONOMIST, RESEARCH & CONSULTING $1,690Current forecast rent $2,130Current economic rent 26% Gap between economicand forecast rent Forecast rents are estimated at$1,690/sqm. This is the forecastpremium Sydney CBD rent expectedon construction completion in Q3 2028if rents grow at 3% per annum. Economic rents are estimated to be at$2,130/sqm. This is the rent requiredon construction completion in Q3 2028to make a new premium office towerfeasible in Sydney CBD. Current economic rents are 26% aboveforecast rents if constructioncommenced in Q3 2025. Economic rents areabove forecast rents Economic rents haverisen sharply Current Sydney CBD economic rents for a newpremium office tower are estimated at $2,130/sqm(net face rent), an 89% increase since Q1 2021. This isthe rent required in Q3 2028 for viable development. Economic rents are estimated to be 26% above theforecast level of rent upon development completion–assuming construction starts in Q3 2025. Several factors drivinghigher development costs Development pipelinehas thinned out Elevated economic rents are being driven by acombination of higher construction costs, elevatedinterest rates, a softening in yields (and the resultingfall in asset valuations) and increased incentives. The development pipeline has thinned out asdevelopers find it difficult to meet feasibility criteria.There is no new supply under construction that isexpected to be complete beyond 2027. Development forecastto be viable in 2028 Economic rents areforecast to fall Yields are forecast to continue to compressthroughout 2026 and 2027, driving a fall in economicrents. Economic rents are expected to fall to$1,900/sqm in late 2026 and remain stable in 2027. Economic rents are projected to fall below forecastrents in 2028–meaning that new developments willbe feasible. Thisimplies that a new premium officetower would not complete construction until 2031. Sydney CBD economic rents reach their peak Economic rents have surged A STEEP RISE SINCE 2021 ECONOMIC RENTS NOW WELL ABOVE FORECASTRENTS Economic rents–the level of rent at which theconstruction of a new development becomes feasible–have risen sharply since 2021 due to a significant rise inconstruction costs, interest rates, yields, and incentives. Economic rent growth in Sydney’s CBD has far outpacedpremium office rent growth in recent years. Since Q1 2021,economic rents have surged by 89%, compared to just 17%for premium rents. As of Q3 2025, the average premiumoffice rent stood at $1,547/sqm. Looking ahead, a forecastthat assumes 3% annual growth has premium rentsreaching $1,690/sqm by development completion in Q32028, well below the economic rent required for viability. In Q3 2025, for a new premium office tower in SydneyCBD–starting construction this quarter with a three-yearconstruction period–we estimate that the economic rentrequired upon completion is $2,130/sqm (net face rent).That is, a developer would need to receive an average rentof $2,130/sqm across the building in the first year of leases(starting in Q3 2028) for the development to be deemedfeasible–defined as the owner receiving a 10% projectIRR. This implies that both current and forecast premiumrents are well below our estimated economic rents. In Q32025, economic rents were 26% higher than the forecastrent upon completion and 38% above current premiumrents. In modelling economic rents, we assume that premiumSydney CBD office yields remain steady throughout theconstruction period at their current level. The completedbuilding is assumed to sell at 25bps below the currentaverage yield for premium assets in the core (5.25%) toreflecta new building premium (see page 5 for more detailon the methodology). This historically wide gap between economic and forecastrents underscores the challenge of achieving financialfeasibility for new office developments in the currentmarket environment. As a result, the pipeline for newoffice supply in the CBD has diminished substantially,with very few developments expected to proceed until thegap narrows later this decade. Economic rent is well above forecast rentDifference between economic and forecast rent (%, economic rent divided by forecast rent) Drivers of high economic rents INTEREST RATES RISE TO CONTROL INFLATION,RAISING BORROWING COSTS HIGHER CONSTRUCTION PRICES INCREASE COSTS Since 2021, Australia has seen a sharp increase inconstru