悉尼经济租金在2025年达到峰值

Estimates of the economic rent for a premium office tower in SydneyCBD are significantly above current and forecast rent levels. Thisindicates the severe constraints on development feasibility, which areleading to a drought of new office supply over the coming years. Click here tosubscribe Q4 2025 Key insights Economic rents have surged since 2021 as a mix of rising costs andmarket pressures put the brakes on new office development. Theresulting supply drought will be a defining feature that will shape the ALISTAIR READSENIOR ECONOMIST, RESEARCH & CONSULTING $2,130 $1,690 26% Current economic rent Current forecast rent Gap between economicand forecast rent Economic rents are estimated to be at$2,130/sqm. This is the rent requiredon construction completion in Q3 2028to make a new premium office tower Forecast rents are estimated at$1,690/sqm. This is the forecastpremium Sydney CBD rent expectedon construction completion in Q3 2028 Current economic rents are 26% aboveforecast rents if constructioncommenced in Q3 2025. Economic rents areabove forecast rents Economic rents haverisen sharply Current Sydney CBD economic rents for a newpremium office tower are estimated at $2,130/sqm(net face rent), an 89% increase since Q1 2021. This is Economic rents are estimated to be 26% above theforecast level of rent upon development completion– Several factors drivinghigher development costs Development pipelinehas thinned out The development pipeline has thinned out asdevelopers find it difficult to meet feasibility criteria.There is no new supply under construction that is Elevated economic rents are being driven by acombination of higher construction costs, elevatedinterest rates, a softening in yields (and the resulting Development forecastto be viable in 2028 Economic rents areforecast to fall Economic rents are projected to fall below forecastrents in 2028–meaning that new developments willbe feasible. Thisimplies that a new premium office Yields are forecast to continue to compressthroughout 2026 and 2027, driving a fall in economicrents. Economic rents are expected to fall to Economic rents have surged A STEEP RISE SINCE 2021 ECONOMIC RENTS NOW WELL ABOVE FORECASTRENTS Economic rents–the level of rent at which theconstruction of a new development becomes feasible–have risen sharply since 2021 due to a significant rise in Economic rent growth in Sydney’s CBD has far outpacedpremium office rent growth in recent years. Since Q1 2021,economic rents have surged by 89%, compared to just 17%for premium rents. As of Q3 2025, the average premiumoffice rent stood at $1,547/sqm. Looking ahead, a forecast In Q3 2025, for a new premium office tower in SydneyCBD–starting construction this quarter with a three-yearconstruction period–we estimate that the economic rentrequired upon completion is $2,130/sqm (net face rent).That is, a developer would need to receive an average rentof $2,130/sqm across the building in the first year of leases This implies that both current and forecast premiumrents are well below our estimated economic rents. In Q32025, economic rents were 26% higher than the forecastrent upon completion and 38% above current premium In modelling economic rents, we assume that premiumSydney CBD office yields remain steady throughout theconstruction period at their current level. The completedbuilding is assumed to sell at 25bps below the current This historically wide gap between economic and forecastrents underscores the challenge of achieving financialfeasibility for new office developments in the currentmarket environment. As a result, the pipeline for new Drivers of high economic rents HIGHER CONSTRUCTION PRICES INCREASE COSTS INTEREST RATES RISE TO CONTROL INFLATION,RAISING BORROWING COSTS Since 2021, Australia has seen a sharp increase inconstruction costs, driven by a combination of global anddomestic supply-side pressures. Construction costs for anew premium tower in Sydney have risen by 50% from$6,587/sqm (gross floor area) in Q1 2021 to $9,877/sqm in Q32025. The rise in costs has occurred across both materials Starting in 2022, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)implemented the largest and fastest interest rate increasesin decades to rein in inflation as the economy emergedfrom the pandemic. From Q1 2021 to Q4 2023, the cash raterose by 425 bps and 2-year swap rates rose by 380 bps,significantly lifting funding costs for owners/developers. SUBDUED LEASING DEMAND HAS WEIGHED ONRENTAL GROWTH AND INCREASED INCENTIVES HIGHER YIELDS REDUCE CAPITAL VALUES Yields–through their impact on capital values–are acrucial factor in determining the feasibility of newdevelopment, with lower yields driving up completed Since 2020, landlords defended face rents by liftingincentives, which became the main lever to secure tenants.Rising construction costs also pushed tenants to favourlandlord-funded fit-outs through incentives rather thanpaying upfront. Prime incentives have doubled f