运用基于智能体的建模与仿真转变部署准备状态

Mr. Benjamin Burns, Dr. Giuseppe Castegnetti, Mr. Liam Doherty, Mr. Daniel Macklin,Ms. Nicoleta Gradinaru, Mr. Benjamin Orcan1 Lackington Street ben.burns@skyral.io,giuseppe.castegnetti@skyral.io,lee.doherty@skyral.io,dan.macklin@skyral.io,nicoleta.gradinaru@skyral.io,benjamin.orcan@skyral.io ABSTRACT The readiness of personnel and equipment to deploy within declared response times is pivotal to NATO’soperational effectiveness in both operational and training environments. This paper presents a conceptualmodel developed using large-scale agent-based modelling (ABM) to demonstrate simulating complex The model captures key readiness factors, including regular and reservist mobilisation, medical reporting,transport, logistics, and supply chain dependencies. It also incorporates civilian behaviour – such as trafficand population movement – to reflect non-combatant impact on military operations. Application of this By simulating the complex within and between interconnected systems‒military activation, socialbehaviour, force mobilisation, movement considerations and logistic enablement – the model revealsemergent behaviours that create risk to deployments, bottlenecks, challenges in maintaining effective supply In response to NATO’s demand for more agile, data-driven MDO force planning, this work demonstrateshow scalable ABM can transform readiness assessment and operational foresight. It offers a powerful DECLARATION There are no restrictions regarding presentation. Neither during the event nor of the publication of the paperin the Meeting Proceedings. 1.0INTRODUCTION NATO’s operational and training effectiveness hinges on the timely readiness of personnel and equipment.Our team, in collaboration with the UK Ministry of Defence and NATO allies, has developed a conceptual This paper introduces the model, which applies high-scale Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) to the assessmentand optimisation of Multi-Domain Operations Force Readiness (MDO FR). By simulating the complex and emergent behaviours and cascading effects that traditional models miss. The framework reveals hidden risks,bottlenecks, and vulnerabilities in areas like mobilisation, logistics, and medical support. Illustrated through applied case studies in defence training and civil planning, this methodology providesinterpretable, data-driven readiness insights that improve situational awareness, enable stress-testing ofCourses of Action (CoAs), and ultimately enhance the Alliance’s capacity for rapid and resilient deployment.A proposed technical architecture ensures the solution is scalable, interoperable, and reusable within NATO This capability strengthens planning and decision support in dual-use contexts, extending its relevance toother government departments and large-scale civilian planning. By revealing complex dynamics that impact 1.1Digital Transformation NATO has adapted its Defence Planning Process (NDPP) to accelerate decision-making and maintainadvantage in a complex security landscape[1]. Alongside Modelling and Simulation (M&S), technologiessuch as AI, autonomy, and quantum computing are reshaping operations. These emerging and disruptivetechnologies present both risks and opportunities for NATO and its Allies. Effective adoption requires 1.1.2NATO MDO definition MDO is defined as the coordinated execution of military activities across all operational domains andenvironments. This is synchronised with non-military activities – including integrated civilian support – toallow the Alliance to achieve converging effects at the necessary speed and accuracy[3]. MDO emphasisesintegration, synchronisation, decision superiority, agility, adaptability, and cross-domain advantage. NATO’s 2.0 MODELLING AND SIMULATION IN FORCE READINESS ASSESSMENT 2.1Modelling and Simulation – Realism for Force Readiness Planning within realistic scenarios is fundamental to effective preparation and readiness. M&S provides themeans to construct adaptive scenarios that capture real-world complexity. When conducted at sufficientfidelity and within compressed timescales, simulations enhance Shared Situational Awareness (SSA) andsupportcommanders with decision-making by delivering operationally specific data that increasesconfidence in selecting and executing CoAs. Realism enables accurate assessment, informed analysis, androbust strategy development, thereby strengthening overall readiness. Collectively, these elements contribute 2.2MDO and Force Readiness: The Complexity Challenge A system-of-systems approach supports the development of realistic scenarios by modelling every element –critical multi-modal platforms and assets, people, information and communication flows, weather, and more.Interactions among these parts reveal cascading effects that occur in both routine and disruptive events. populations, infrastructure, technology and integration, M&S fosters deeper understanding of modernwarfare complexity and its inter dependencies[3]. 2.2.1The M