全球政府债券拍卖：未来一个月展望

Global Rates Strategy| Global Government Bond Auctions: +91 22 6995-6755 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMatthew HornbachStrategist +1 212 761-1837 We review the supply, coupon, and redemption picture for theUS, UK, Euro, JPY, AUS, NZ, and CAN government bond marketsover the next month. This week, G7 net DV01 is expected to be$103.4mn/bp, compared to an average* $60.7mn/bp; US The Week Ahead: Net issuance (gross issuance less coupons less redemptions) In the euro area,we estimate about €12.8bn of issuance during the week. This willbe against €0.9bn in coupons and €19bn in redemptions coming into the market. Weexpect €74.3bn of supply in the coming five weeks against €1.9bn in coupons and In the UK,we expect issuance of UKT 4.25% Jun 2032 for £0.75bn and UKT 4.75%Oct 2035 for £4.5bn during this week. This will be against £7.4bn in coupons and noredemptions coming into the market. In the US,a new 3y UST will be issued for an estimated $58bn, a 10y UST willreopen for an estimated $39bn and a 30y UST will reopen for an estimated $22bnduring the coming week. There will be no cash flow coming into the market. Over In Japan,there will be an issuance of 5y JGB for an estimated ¥2.4trn and 20y JGBfor an estimated ¥800bn during the coming week. This will be against no cashflows. In Australia,ACGB 4.75% Jun 2054 will be issued for $0.3bn, ACGB 1% Dec 2030will be issued for $1bn and ACGBi 2% Aug 2035 will be issued for $0.1bn during thecoming week. This will be against no cash flow coming into the market. In New Zealand,we expect NZGB to be issued for an estimated $0.45bn during thecoming week. This will be against no cash flow coming into the market. In Canada,we expect CAN 2y to be issued for an estimated $6bn during the comingweek. This will be against no cash flow coming into the market. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Note: *Average Net DV01 (gross issuance less coupons less redemptions pluspurchases less sales) issuance over the coming five weeks and past four weeks. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Supply Overview G7 Gross Notional and DV01 Estimates G7 Net Notional and DV01 Estimates G7 Net DV01 Estimates Source: Treasuries, Morgan Stanley Research G7 Net DV01 Estimates EUR Total Cash Flow (€bn) UK, US, and Japan Total Cash Flow (Local Currency) T-Bills Issuance Appendix – Eurozone Government Redemptions Appendix – Eurozone Sovereign Issuance Estimates Appendix – Eurozone Sovereign Issuance Estimates Appendix – US and Japan Issuance Estimates 2025 European Sovereigns Ratings Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and/or Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A. and/or Morgan Stanley México,Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V. and/or Morgan Stanley Canada Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc and/or Morgan Stanley Europe S.E. and/or RMB Morgan Stanley ProprietaryLimited and/or Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd. and/or Morgan Stanley Capital Group Japan Co., Ltd. and/or Morgan Stanley Asia Limited and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore)Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H), regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore(which accepts legal responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research) and/or Morgan StanleyTaiwan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul Branch, and/or Morgan Stanley Australia Limited (A.B.N. 67 003 734 576, holder of Australian financial services licenseNo. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 009 145 555, holder of Australian financial services licenseNo. 240813, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited having Corporate Identification No (CIN) U22990MH1998PTC115305, regulated For important disclosures, stock price charts and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Websiteat www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures, or contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Research Mana