全球利率策略：全球政府债券拍卖：未来一个月

Global Rates Strategy| Global Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+ Vivek JikarStrategistVivek.Jikar@morganstanley.com Government Bond Auctions:The Month Ahead Matthew HornbachStrategistMatthew.Hornbach@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1837 We review the supply, coupon, and redemption picture for theUS, UK, Euro, JPY, AUS, NZ, and CAN government bond marketsover the next month. This week, G7 net DV01 is expected to be$66.8mn/bp, compared to an average* $76.8mn/bp; US$33.4mn/bp; Euro $19.6mn/bp; Japan $8.5mn/bp; UK $4.2mn/bp. The Week Ahead: Net issuance (gross issuance less coupons less redemptions) In the euro area,we estimate about €27.8bn of issuance against €3bn in couponsand €22.1bn in redemptions coming into the market during the week. We expect€114.8bn of supply in the coming five weeks against €9.8bn in coupons and €87.2bnin redemptions, resulting in net issuance of €17.7bn. In the UK,we expect issuance of UKT 4.375% Jan 2040 for £3bn during this week.This will be against no coupons or redemptions coming into the market. In the US,a 20y UST will reopen for an estimated $13bn and a 10y TIPS will reopenfor an estimated $19bn during the coming week. There will be $4.8bn in couponsand $41bn in redemptions coming into the market. Over the next five weeks, weexpect $334bn of supply against $30.1bn in coupons and $254.1bn in redemptions,resulting in net issuance of $49.7bn. In Japan,there will be an issuance of 20y JGB for an estimated ¥0.8trn during thecoming week. These will be against no cash flow coming into the market. In Australia,ACGB 4.25% Dec 2035 will be issued for $1.2bn and ACGB 1% Dec2030 will be issued for $1bn during the coming week. These will be against $0.1bn incoupons and $4bn in redemptions coming into the market. In New Zealand,we expect NZGB to be issued for an estimated $0.45bn during thecoming week. There will be no coupons or redemptions coming into the market. In Canada,we do not expect any issuance during the coming week. There will be nocash flow coming into the market. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. Note: *Average Net DV01 (gross issuance less coupons less redemptions pluspurchases less sales) issuance over the coming five weeks and past four weeks. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Supply Overview G7 Gross Notional and DV01 Estimates G7 Net Notional and DV01 Estimates G7 Net DV01 Estimates G7 Net DV01 Estimates EUR Total Cash Flow (€bn) UK, US, and Japan Total Cash Flow (Local Currency) T-Bills Issuance Appendix – Eurozone Government Redemptions Appendix – Eurozone Sovereign Issuance Estimates Appendix – Eurozone Sovereign Issuance Estimates Appendix – US and Japan Issuance Estimates 2025 European Sovereigns Ratings Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and/or Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A. and/or Morgan Stanley México,Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V. and/or Morgan Stanley Canada Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc and/or Morgan Stanley Europe S.E. and/or RMB Morgan Stanley ProprietaryLimited and/or Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd. and/or Morgan Stanley Capital Group Japan Co., Ltd. and/or Morgan Stanley Asia Limited and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore)Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H), regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore(which accepts legal responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research) and/or Morgan StanleyTaiwan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul Branch, and/or Morgan Stanley Australia Limited (A.B.N. 67 003 734 576, holder of Australian financial services licenseNo. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 009 145 555, holder of Australian financial services licenseNo. 240813, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited having Corporate Identification No (CIN) U22990MH1998PTC115305, regulatedby the Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) and holder of licenses as a Resear