华尔街认为AI泡沫正在形成，并正博弈其破裂

Wall Street Sees an AI Bubble Forming andIs Gaming What Pops It 华尔街⻅AI泡沫形成正博弈哪个会破 Photographer: Chesnot/Getty Images摄影师：Chesnot/Getty Images ByJeran Wittenstein作者：杰兰·维特斯坦December 14, 2025 at 10:00 PM GMT+8 BPC > enable JavaScript for siteBPC >为本站启⽤JavaScript It’s been three years since OpenAI set off euphoria overartificial intelligence with the release of ChatGPT. And whilethe money is still pouring in, so are the doubts about whetherthe good times can last. 从英伟达公司股价的近期抛售，到甲⾻⽂公司在报告AI⽀出激增后股价暴跌，再到对OpenAI敞⼜公司⽹络情绪的恶化，怀疑的迹象正在增加。展望2026年，投资者之间的争论是是否要在潜在泡沫破裂前控制AI敞⼜，还是加⼤投⼊以利⽤这项变⾰性技术。 From a recentselloffin the shares ofNvidia Corp., toOracleCorp.’s plunge after reportingmounting spendingon AI, tosouring sentimentaround a network of companies exposedto OpenAI, signs of skepticism are increasing. Looking to2026, the debate among investors is whether to rein in AIexposure ahead of a potential bubble popping or doubledown to capitalize on the game-changing technology. 从英伟达公司股价的近期抛售，到甲⾻⽂公司在报告AI⽀出激增后股价暴跌，再到对OpenAI敞⼜公司⽹络情绪的恶化，怀疑的迹象正在增加。展望2026年，投资者之间的争论是是否要在潜在泡沫破裂前控制AI敞⼜，还是加⼤投⼊以利⽤这项变⾰性技术。 “We’re in the phase of the cycle where the rubber meets theroad,” saidJim Morrow, chief executive officer of CallodineCapital Management. “It’s been a good story, but we’re sortof anteing up at this point to see whether the returns on investment are going to be good.” “我们正处于周期中‘纸⾯谈兵’的阶段，”Callodine CapitalManagement的⾸席执⾏官吉姆·莫罗说。“这曾是个好故事，但我们现在押注以看看投资回报是否真的会好。” Nasdaq 100 Has More Than Doubled Since ChatGPT纳斯达克100指数⾃ChatGPT推出以来已经翻了⼀番以上。 The queasiness about the AI trade involves its uses, theenormous cost of developing it, and whether consumersultimately will pay for the services. Those answers will havemajor implications for the stock market’s future. 对⼈⼯智能交易的担忧涉及其⽤途、开发成本巨⼤，以及消费者最终是否会为这些服务付费。这些答案将对股市的未来产⽣重⼤影响。 The S&P 500’s three-year, $30 trillion bull run has largelybeen driven by the world’s biggest tech companies likeAlphabet Inc.andMicrosoft Corp., as well as firms benefitingfrom spending on AI infrastructure like chipmakers NvidiaandBroadcom Inc., and electricity providers such asConstellation Energy Corp.If they stop rising, the equitiesindexes will follow. 标普500指数过去三年的3万亿美元⽜市在很⼤程度上是由像Alphabet Inc.和Microsoft Corp.这样的全球最⼤科技公司推动的，还包括受益于⼈⼯智能基础设施⽀出的公司，如芯⽚制造商Nvidia和Broadcom Inc.，以及Constellation Energy Corp.等电⼒供应商。如果它们停⽌上涨，股票指数也将随之跟进。 “These stocks don’t correct because the growth rate goesdown,” saidSameer Bhasin, principal at Value Point Capital.“These stocks correct when the growth rate doesn’taccelerate any further.” “这些股票不会因为增长率下降⽽回调，”Value Point Capital的主管萨⽶尔·巴赫⾟说。“这些股票回调是因为增长率不再加速。” Of course, there are still plenty of reasons for optimism. Thetech giants that account for much of the AI spending havevast resources and have pledged to keep pumping in cash inthe years ahead. Plus, developers of AI services, likeAlphabet’s Google, continue to make strides with new models. Hence the debate. 当然，仍然有很多理由值得乐观。那些负责⼤部分AI⽀出的科技巨头拥有丰富的资源，并承诺在接下来的⼏年⾥继续投⼊资⾦。此外，像Alphabet旗下的Google这样的AI服务开发者，继续在新的模型上取得进展。因此引发了这场争论。 Here’s a look at the key trends to watch while navigatingthrough these choppy waters. 在穿越这些动荡⽔域时，以下是⼀些值得关注的重点趋势。 Access to Capital融资渠道 OpenAI aloneplansto spend $1.4 trillion in the coming years.But the Sam Altman-led company, whichbecamethe world’smost valuable startup in October, is generating far lessrevenue than its operating costs. It expects to burn $115billion through 2029 before generating cash in 2030, TheInformationreportedin September. 仅OpenAI就计划在未来⼏年内投⼊1.4万亿美元。但这家在10⽉份成为全球最值钱初创公司的、由⼭姆·奥尔特曼领导的公司，其收⼊远低于运营成本。据《信息》杂志9⽉份报道，该公司预计到2029年将烧掉1150亿美元，并在2030年之前才能实现盈利。 The company has had no problem with fundraising so far,collecting $40 billion fromSoftbank Group Corp.and otherinvestors earlier this year. Nvidiapledgedto invest as muchas $100 billion in September, one of a series of deals thechipmaker has made that funnel cash to its customers, which is causing fears ofcircular financingin the AI industry. 到⽬前为⽌，该公司在融资⽅⾯没有遇到任何问题，今年早些时候从软银集团和其他投资者那⾥筹集了400亿美元。英伟达在9⽉份承诺投资⾼达1000亿美元，这是芯⽚制造商进⾏的⼀系列交易中的⼀笔，这些交易将资⾦注⼊其客户⼿中，引发了⼈⼯智能⾏业循环融资的担忧。 OpenAI could run into trouble if investors start to balk atcommitting more capital. And the consequences would spiralto the companies in its orbit, like computing-servicesproviderCoreWeave Inc. 如果投资者开始拒绝投⼊更多资本，OpenAI可能会陷⼊困境。⽽后果将波及到其周边公司，例如计算服务提供商CoreWeaveInc。 “If you think about how much money — it’s in the trillionsnow — is crowded into a small group of themes and names,when there’s the first hint of that theme even having short-term issues or just valuations get so stretched they can’tpossibly continue to grow like that, they’re all leaving atonce,” saidEric Clark, portfolio manager at the RationalDynamic Brands Fund. “想想现在挤⼊少数主题和名称中的资⾦——现在已达到数万亿美元——当这些主题出现短期问题迹象，或者估值被拉得如此之⾼以⾄于不可能继续那样增长时，它们都会同时撤离，”RationalDynamic Brands Fund的基⾦经理Eric Clark表⽰。 Plenty of other companies are reliant on external funding topursue AI ambitions. Oracle sharessoaredas it racked upbookings for cloud comp