2026年煤电长协解读

Coal-Power Long-Term Contract Interpretation2026年煤电长协解读 樊园园FanYuanyuan从业资格号Qualification No：F03117502投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0022660张默涵Zhang Mohan从业资格号Qualification No：F03097187投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0020317桂晨曦Gui Chenxi从业资格号Qualification No：F3023159投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Abstract摘要 Attaching greater importance to the substitution effect of new energy for thermal power, the2026 medium and long-term contracts (MLTCs) emphasize the "supply guarantee" positioning oflong-term agreements.The main impacts of the detailed rule revisions are reflected in two aspects:first,strengthening the assessment of the fulfillment rate and performance of long-term agreements; second,clarifying the pricing mechanism for production-area medium and long-term contracts, which helps tosmooth price fluctuations in production areas.In addition, there are no major changes to the pricingmechanism, requiredcontractedvolume, or performance ratio.The first mention of new energy reflectsattention to thegrowing trendof new energy power generation substituting coal-fired power. Looking ahead, the fundamental supply-demand balance of thermal coal is gradually shifting fromaloosestatetoabalancedone. In 2026, the upward elasticity of coal supply is expected to be limited,while the demand side has not yet peaked and still has room for growth. The price center may move up tothe range of 700-900 yuan/ton. Risks:Policy implementation exceeding expectations; climate change exceeding expectations. 2026年中长期合同在更加重视新能源对火电替代作用基础上，强调长协“保供”定位。细则修改主要体现在：一是加强长协兑现率和履约执行的考核；二是明确产地中长期合同定价机制，有助于平滑产地价格波动。此外，港口中长期合同价格机制、应签约数量、履约比例方面无大变动。首次提到新能源，体现了对新能源发电替代煤电的新形势的重视。 展望后市，动力煤供需基本面由宽松逐渐趋于平衡，2026年预计煤炭供应端向上弹性有限，需求侧尚未达峰，仍有增长空间，价格中枢或上移至700-900元/吨之间。 风险因素：政策落实高于预期、气候切换高于预期 Charts图表 Chart 1: NCEI Medium & Long-Term Contract Prices.......................................................................................3Chart 2: Port Coal Prices (Yuan/ton)....................................................................................................................3Table 1: Medium and Long-Term Contracts for Thermal Coal Supply Guarantee, 2025 vs 2026..............5Table 2: Reasonable Price Ranges for Medium and Long-Term Coal Transactions by Region (Yuan/ton)...........................................................................................................................................................................................6Table 3: Pricing Scheme for Medium and Long-Term Contracts of Downstream-Shipped Coal................7Table 4: Pricing Scheme for Medium & Long-Term Contracts at the Ex-Mine Stage...................................7图表1：NCEI中长期合同价................................................................................................................................8图表2：港口煤价..................................................................................................................................................8图表3：2026年电煤保供中长期合同与2025年的对比..................................................................................9图表4：各地中长期交易价格合理区间（元/吨）...........................................................................................10图表5：下水煤中长期合同定价方案................................................................................................................11图表6：出矿环节中长期合同定价方案............................................................................................................11 Related Reports近期报告 * Click on the hyperlink of report titles to read historical reports20251126 China Futures Annual Outlook中国期货2026年度展望20251210 Policy Readings on the Politburo Meeting in December 2025年12月政治局会议联合点评20251030 Policy Readings on the “15th Five-Year Plan” “十五五”规划建议联合点评20250723 Anti-Involution Policy Reading and Influence on Futures Prices “反内卷”政策对期货价格影响 In the first half of 2025, the price of coal under long-term agreements (LTA) and the spot coalprice remained inverted, with the LTA fulfillment rate staying at a low level.As a key institutionalarrangement for safeguarding China’s national energy security, the medium and long-term contracts(MLTCs) for thermal coal play a crucial role in supporting the coal-power industrial chain and the broadersociety’s energy security,specifically in guaranteeing energy supply, balancing industry interests, andstabilizing market order. Since 2021, China has strengthened the management of thermal coal MLTCs, increased the contractsigning ratio, and intensified performance verification, establishing MLTCs as a cornerstone of energysupply guarantee. As China’s coal supply-demand balance has gradually shifted toward looseness,requirements for thermal coal MLTCs have been adjusted incrementally. In H1 2025, loose coal market fundamentals drove a sustained decline in spot coal prices, leadingto a rare prolonged inversion between spot coal prices and LTA coal prices,during which the LTAfulfillment rate dropped. S