美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔称美国可能大幅高估就业数据

The country could be losing 20,000 jobs a month, Powell said, a concern that was part of the decision to cutinterest rates鲍威尔表示，该国每⽉可能失去2万个⼯作岗位，这⼀担忧是美联储降息决定的⼀部分 已发布的数据显示今年就业增⻓放缓，如果数据被夸⼤，可能意味着市场在萎缩。NAM Y. HUH/AP Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that federal data might be overstating job creation by up to60,000 jobs monthly. View more美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，联邦数据可能每⽉⾼估了多达6万个就业岗位的增⻓。查看更多 Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed on Wednesday to a job-market risk that economists have been worried about for months: Official statisticscould be drastically overstating recent hiring. 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三指出了经济学家们数⽉来⼀直担忧的⼀个就业市场风险：官⽅统计数据可能严重⾼估了近期的招聘情况。 Powell said that Fed staffers believe that federal data could be overestimating job creation by up to 60,000 jobs a month. Given that figurespublished so far show that the economy has added about 40,000 jobs a month since April, the real number could be something more like aloss of 20,000 jobs a month, Powell said.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 鲍威尔表⽰，美联储⼯作⼈员认为联邦数据可能⾼估了每⽉多达6万个⼯作岗位的创造。鲍威尔指出，鉴于迄今为⽌发布的数据显⽰⾃4⽉以来经济每⽉增加了约4万个⼯作岗位，实际数字可能更接近每⽉失去2万个⼯作岗位。 “We think there’s an overstatement in these numbers,” Powell said in a press conference following the central bank’s two-day policy meeting."我们认为这些数字存在⾼估，"鲍威尔在美联储为期两天的政策会议后的新闻发布会上表⽰。 Published data already show the labor market has slowed significantly this year, down from rapid hiring after the Covid-19 pandemic. Thisslower pace means big data revisions can more easily reveal the economy is shedding jobs, not adding them. 已发布的数据显⽰，今年劳动⼒市场的增速明显放缓，远低于新冠疫情后的快速招聘速度。这种放缓意味着⼤规模数据修正可以更容易地揭⽰经济在失业，⽽⾮增加就业。 “It’s a complicated, unusual, and difficult situation, where the labor market is also under pressure, where job creation may actually benegative,” Powell said."这是⼀个复杂、不寻常且困难的局⾯，劳动⼒市场也承受压⼒，⼯作岗位创造实际上可能是负增长，"鲍威尔表⽰。 That concern provided some of the backing for the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates at a third straight meeting, Powell said, despite a labormarket that still looks healthy on the surface, with unemployment at a relatively modest 4.4% in September and a net gain of 119,000 jobs thatmonth. Next week, the Labor Department will report fresh jobs numbers for October and November, as well as possible revisions for previousmonths. 这种担忧为美联储连续第三次降息的决定提供了⼀些⽀持，鲍威尔表⽰，尽管劳动⼒市场表⾯上仍然看起来健康，9⽉份失业率相对较低，为4.4%，当⽉净增就业岗位119,000个。下周，劳⼯部将发布10⽉和11⽉的最新就业数据，以及对前⼏个⽉的可能修正。 Powell’s concern involves a quandary that the Labor Department faces when measuring hiring: how to judge the number of jobs added ordestroyed when new businesses are created or close down. Those jobs can’t be surveyed directly because it is difficult for the government toreach out to brand-new companies or companies no longer in business. 鲍威尔的担忧涉及劳⼯部在测量招聘时⾯临的⼀个难题：如何判断新企业创建或关闭时增加或消失的就业岗位数量。这些岗位⽆法直接调查，因为政府很难联系到全新成⽴的公司或已停业的公司。 Instead, Labor’s data arm, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, must use a statistical model to make a guess. In the past few years, that technique,called the birth-death model—referring to the births and deaths of businesses—has contributed to estimates that haveoverstated job creationby hundreds of thousands of jobs a year, forcing significant downward revisions later. 相反，劳⼯部的数据部门美国劳⼯统计局必须使⽤统计模型进⾏估算。在过去⼏年中，这种被称为"出⽣-死亡模型"的技术——指企业的创建和关闭——使得就业创造的估计数⾼估了每年数⼗万个岗位，之后不得不进⾏重⼤向下修正。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K Last month, the BLS laid out a plan to change how it uses the birth-death model, which could make the real-time numbers more accuratestarting in February. But for now, Powell suggested, the Fed is concerned that monthly employment stats have been too good to be true, part ofthe rationale for continuing to cut interest rates even though inflation remains above target. 上个⽉，美国劳⼯统计局公布了改变如何使⽤出⽣-死亡模型的计划，这可能会从2⽉开始使实时数据更加准确。但鲍威尔表⽰，⽬前美联储担忧⽉度就业统计数据过于乐观，这是继续降息的部分原因，尽管通胀仍然⾼于⽬标⽔平。 对劳动⼒调查的及时回复数量下降增加了⽉度就业统计修正的规模，⼀些公司迟交⼯资单数据后需要进⾏这些修正。长期的预算紧张和⼈员短缺也制约了该机构的⼯作能⼒。最近，11⽉结束的政府长期关门事件更是让该机构的⼯作延后了⼀个多⽉。 The Labor Department’s struggles have spilled into politics, prompting President Trump to blame data problems on what he called efforts tomanipulate figures for political ends. Hefired the BLS’s commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, aftersharp revisions in Augustate into springtimejobs growth, leaving the agency in the hands of a nonpartisan career official who is serving as its acting leader. 劳⼯部的困境已波及政治领域，促使特朗普总统将数据问题归咎于他所谓的为政治⽬的⽽操纵数字的努⼒。在8⽉份的⼤幅修正抵消了春季就业增长后，他解雇了劳⼯统计局局长埃⾥卡·麦肯塔弗，将该机构交由⼀名⽆党派⼈⼠的资深官员领导，该官员⽬前担任代理领导⼀职。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K