美联储在争执激烈的会议后将利率下调至三年低位

Federal Reserve cuts rates to three-year low after fractious meeting 美联储在争执激烈的会议后将利率下调⾄三年低位 Three top US central bankers object to move in biggest revolt since 2019 三名美国央⾏⾼管反对此举，这是⾃2019年以来最⼤规模的反对 Claire JonesandMyles McCormickin Washington andKate Duguidin New York华盛顿的克莱尔·琼斯和迈尔斯·⻨考密克以及纽约的凯特·杜吉德 Published发布于5 HOURS AGO The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to a three-year low after a divisive meeting that exposeddeep fractures in the central bank over whether to prioritise weakening employment or elevatedinflation. 美联储在⼀次充满分歧的会议后将利率下调⾄三年来的最低⽔平，该会议暴露了这家中央银⾏内部的深层裂痕，即是否应优先考虑就业疲软或通胀⾼企。 The central bank on Wednesday lowered its benchmarkrateby a quarter point to between 3.5 to3.75 per cent as widely anticipated by Wall Street. It marked the third reduction in borrowing costsin a row.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 这家中央银⾏在周三将基准利率下调25个基点⾄3.5%⾄3.75%之间，这与华尔街的⼴泛预期⼀致。这是借贷成本连续第三次下调。 Policymakers noted that “downside risks to employment rose in recent months” as the jobless rateincreased and hiring slowed, while also indicating that inflation remained “somewhat elevated”. 政策制定者指出，随着失业率上升和招聘放缓，"近⼏个⽉来就业的下⾏⻛险上升"，同时也表示通胀仍然"略有抬升"。 Stocks and bonds both rallied in price following the rate cut. Wall Street’s S&P 500 share gaugeclosed 0.7 per cent higher. Meanwhile, the two-year Treasury note yield, which is sensitive tomonetary policy expectations, fell 0.07 percentage points to 3.54 per cent. 股票和债券价格在降息后双双上涨。华尔街标普500股指收盘上涨0.7%。与此同时，对货币政策预期敏感的两年期美国国债收益率下降0.07个百分点⾄3.54%。 Three of the dozen voters on the Fed’s policy-setting board objected to the central bank’s quarter-point cut, the most powerful revolt since 2019. 美联储政策制定委员会的⼗⼆名投票者中有三⼈反对央⾏的0.25个百分点降息，这是⾃2019年以来最强烈的反对。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K The debate inside theFedcomes as President Donald Trump has insisted the central bank shouldcut rates much more aggressively while repeatedly criticising chair Jay Powell. 美联储内部的这场辩论发⽣之际，唐纳德·特朗普总统坚持要求央⾏应该更激进地降息，同时反复批评美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔。 The president on Wednesday said the Fed’s interest rate cut should have been “at least double”,while he decried the “deadhead Fed”. 总统周三表示，美联储的降息幅度应该⾄少是"两倍"，同时他抨击了"⽆能的美联储"。 “This guy, the head of the Federal Reserve, is a stiff,”Trumpsaid, referring to Powell. "这个⼈，美联储主席，是个呆⽠，"特朗普指的是鲍威尔。 Fed governor Stephen Miran, a staunch ally of the president, called for a 0.5 percentage point cut,while the Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee and the Kansas City Fed’s Jeffrey Schmid called for nochange. 美联储理事斯蒂芬·⽶兰是总统的坚定盟友，呼吁降息0.5个百分点，⽽芝加哥联储的奥斯坦·古尔斯⽐和堪萨斯城联储的杰弗⾥·施密德则呼吁不改变利率。 Powell hinted that the bar for further rate cuts in the new year was high, saying after the meetingthat interest rates were “now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value, and we are wellpositioned to wait to see how the economy evolves”.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 鲍威尔暗示新年进⼀步降息的⻔槛很⾼，他在会议后表示，利率"⽬前处于其中性值估计的宽泛区间内，我们已做好充分准备，等待观察经济如何发展"。 But the so-called dot plot of projections of senior Fed officials released on Wednesday laid bare thedeep discord among policymakers. 但周三发布的美联储⾼级官员利率预期点阵图（所谓"点阵图"）暴露了政策制定者之间的深刻分歧。 The median forecast showed that officials expect just one 0.25 percentage point cut next year,steady from the previous dot plot in September. However, three members thought borrowing costswould end 2026 higher than they are now, while one pencilled in six quarter-point cuts. 中位数预测显示，官员们预计明年仅会降息⼀次0.25个百分点，与9⽉份的点阵图⼀致。然⽽，有三名成员认为借贷成本在2026年底会⾼于⽬前⽔平，另有⼀⼈预计会降息六次（每次0.25个百分点）。 “Everyone around the table at the [Federal Open Market Committee] agrees that inflation is toohigh and we want it to come down and agrees that the labour market has softened and that there’sfurther risk,” Powell said. “Where the difference is, is how you weigh those risks.” 鲍威尔表示："[联邦公开市场委员会]的每个⼈都同意通胀过⾼，我们希望它下降，也都同意劳动⼒市场已经疲软并存在进⼀步⻛险。分歧在于，每个⼈对这些⻛险的权衡⽅式不同。" Goldman Sachs noted that there were also several “shadow dissents” to Wednesday’s cut, with halfa dozen of the 19 Fed officials who submit estimates for the dot plot indicating rates should havebeen left on hold.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K ⾼盛指出，周三的降息决定也存在数个"隐性反对意⻅"，在提交点阵图预期的19名美联储官员中，有半数左右表示利率应该维持不变。 “There will definitely be more heated debate going forward because there are very differentopinions on the board, and for some, different priorities,” said Kristina Hooper, chief marketstrategist at Man Group. "随着董事会意⻅分歧加⼤，以及⼀些⼈的优先事项不同，未来肯定会有更多激烈的辩论，"ManGroup⾸席市场策略师克⾥斯蒂娜·胡珀表示。 Trump beganholding interviewsthis week on who he will nominate to replace Powell when histerm expires in May 2026, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday. 据英国《⾦融时报》周⼆报道，特朗普本周开始⾯试候选⼈，以确定在鲍威尔的任期于2026年5⽉到期时由谁接任。 “I’m looking for somebody that will be honest with interest rates...honestly our rates should bemuch lower,” Trump said on Wednesday. He has previously said he would announce his pick earlynext year but on Wednesday said it was possible that a selection would be made in the next twoweeks. "我在寻找⼀个能够诚实对待利率的⼈……说实话，我们的利率应该低得多，"特朗普周三表示。他之前曾表示将在明年年初宣布⼈选，但周三表示有可能在未来两周内做出选择。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K Kevin Hassett, a Trump ally and the frontrunner for th