数据中心对美国能源需求的影响

Equity ResearchEnergy | Oil and Gas August 25, 2025Industry Report Neal Dingmann+1 312 801 7835ndingmann@williamblair.com “Can’t Fight This Feeling”Approaching Energy CyclicalBottom, Likely Inflection Point Bert Donnes+1 312 364 8563bdonnes@williamblair.com Contents Thesis: Favor Oily Over Gassy E&Ps in Near Term Despite Gas’s “Coiled Spring” Status....3Attractive Energy Sector....................................................................................................3Oily E&Ps Versus Gassy E&Ps............................................................................................6Our 11 Initiations: 10 Outperform and 1 Market Perform..............................................6Primary and Final Energy Mix Fuels End-Users.............................................................10World Oil Supply and Demand........................................................................................11World Natural Gas Supply and Demand..........................................................................13U.S. Oil Production...........................................................................................................15U.S. Natural Gas Production.............................................................................................19U.S. Natural Gas Inventory...............................................................................................21U.S. Exports......................................................................................................................23U.S. LNG............................................................................................................................24U.S. Electricity..................................................................................................................27Data Centers.....................................................................................................................29 Thesis: Favor Oily Over Gassy E&Ps in Near Term DespiteGas’s “Coiled Spring” Status SummaryWe believe the energy sector is approaching its latest cyclical bottom, despite a potential surplus in oil and, to some extent, natural gas supply, as investors begin to look past the commodity noise.We are relatively bullish on oil and various related stocks as U.S. inventory deterioration causesdomestic production to decline, offsetting some of the upcoming incremental OPEC+ barrels. Wefind ourselves slightly cautious on natural gas and some related stocks nearer term given the po-tential for increased domestic supply, as new wells continue to improve and baseline productiondecline moderates. However, we do not deny the potential for medium- to longer-term notableincremental demand from LNG projects and data centers. Our expectations contrast with those ofmost investors and with the analysts’ consensus call, which is extremely cautious on oil and relatedstocks in both the near and long term. We are cautious on gas and related stocks only in the verynear term, and in the medium and long term remain bullish. We are initiating coverage on 11 ex-ploration and production (E&P) companies and recommend that investors begin to take positionsin several (we have Outperform ratings over a 12-month period on 10 of 11 companies). We believe there are four key factors that have improved the energy sector’s future potential up-side. First, end-use fossil fuel demand remains strong, with AI and data centers, among others, be-ing prominent sources. Second, most energy companies are in a better financial position than ever.Third, operational efficiencies continue to notably increase. Fourth, capital allocation that includesnotable shareholder return has become more strategic. Our proprietary data suggest quality U.S. oil inventory is declining at a quicker pace than expected,while gas inventory appears to be holding up much better with more consistent inventory levels.We believe the concern over future tier-1 inventory, among other things, is resulting in record-highprices paid for oil and natural gas acres. Attractive Energy Sector While the energy sector remains out of favor with many investors due to a myriad of factors, webelieve there are several reasons why investors should consider adding exposure. Despite energyconstituting only 2%-5% of the S&P 500 over the past five years, the energy sector has been one ofthe top performers during this period. We believe some of the energy group’s upside can be attributed to the macro environment duringthe past five years. The energy group continues to be a relative hedge against inflation, especiallywhen that inflation is driven by rising energy prices themselves. Not surprisingly, the energy sec-tor saw its best annual return over the past five years during 2022, when CPI and other macroinflationary measures were at their uppermost levels, along with the highest oil prices during thesame period. There is much discussion to be had about future inflation, as well as future o