人类风险因素：新兴脆弱性如何重塑韧性

Risk and resilience review Changes in humanvulnerabilities drive emergingliabilities, reshape exposuremodels and influencepolicyholder behavior.Understanding these risksenhances underwriting, informsresilience strategies andsupports proactive adaptationin an evolving risk landscape. Introduction3 Unintended intelligence:Human vulnerability from AI6 The resilience of an aging world10 Climate security scenario planning19 Disaster displacement25 The unseen legacy of forever chemicals31 Cyberbiosecurity36 Systemic threats to global health42 Introduction: Human vulnerability — the nextfrontier of risk Human vulnerability is emerging as one of the definingdimensions of systemic risk. By 2050, the world’spopulation will exceed 9.7 billion, with two-thirds livingin cities. More than1.6 billion peoplewill be over theage of 65 and nearlyone in three workerswill live inregions exposed to extreme heat for at least one montheach year. Climate, technology and demographic shiftsare converging to test the limits of physical, mentaland economic resilience. From extreme heat and agingsocieties to AI and toxic exposures, the forces shapingglobal resilience are increasingly measured not onlyin physical or financial terms but also through theirimpact on people — the workers, communities andinstitutions that keep economies functioning. data-driven systems introduce new psychological,ethical and occupational strains. These are not onlyhumanitarian concerns; they are material exposuresthat affect labor markets, health systems, supply chainsand asset values. Yet, while risk models have advanced in measuringhazards to property and capital, few capture thevulnerabilities embedded in human systems: workforcedependence, access to care, adaptive capacity andsocial cohesion. As populations age and urbanize,and digital technologies reshape the workplace, theresilience of these systems is increasingly understress. For the insurance sector, the challenge andthe opportunity lie in understanding how shiftsin wellbeing, health and capability translate intomeasurable risk. These pressures are not theoretical. The World HealthOrganization estimates that over 250,000 additionaldeaths each year will be attributable to climate-relatedstress by mid-century, while the International LabourOrganization warns that heat stress could reducetotal global working hours by 2.2%, equivalent to 80million full-time jobs. Meanwhile, AI and automation arereshaping the world of work and wellbeing in quieterways — altering employment, social connection andhuman agency. Together, these trends highlight howthe core assets of modern economies are also theirmost fragile: people. This edition of theRisk and Resilience Reviewexploresthe human dimension of emerging perils, drawing onresearch from the Willis Research Network andits academic and industry partners. Together, thearticles examine how climate, technological andsocial pressures are reshaping the limits of humanendurance — and what this means for the future ofrisk management. A consistent theme runs through the work: Vulnerabilityis not fixed. It evolves with exposure, inequality andthe capacity to adapt. As insurers, investors andpolicymakers look to model increasingly complex risk,placing people at the center of resilience is becomingboth an ethical obligation and a commercial necessity. As climate, technology and demographic changeaccelerate, the boundary between human and systemicrisk continues to erode. Heatwaves drive mortalityand productivity losses. Displacement fracturessocial networks and slows recovery. Automation and The human algorithm: Understanding AI’s hidden risks1 Artificial intelligence is introducing a new category of exposure — not to systems, but to the people who depend onthem. Drawing on WTW's Chief Innovation and Acceleration Office John Bremen’s research, this piece explores fivedimensions of human vulnerability to AI: mental wellbeing, economic insecurity, social disruption, loss of agencyand erosion of meaning. It argues for a new generation of human-centered metrics and governance that can detectand reduce these risks while preserving trust and dignity. Aging societies, enduring strength With global populations over 65 expected to double by 2050, aging is often seen purely as a risk multiplier. Yetit can also be a source of resilience. This article explores the dual nature of aging societies — the vulnerabilitiesof health, mobility and isolation and the strengths of experience, cohesion and collective response that olderpopulations can bring to times of crisis. Heat at the human limit Research from the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Willis Research Network shows that humidheat is now one of the clearest signals of climate change in cities worldwide. This article examines how risingtemperatures are affecting labor productivity, health outcomes and insurability — and why risk managers mustincreasingly treat the human body itself as critical infras