东南亚电力行业转型

A technical reference for financial institutions Authors and Acknowledgments Authors Dhroovaa KhannanAntoine LalechereMitchell LutiChristina PastoriaThomas White Authors are listed alphabetically. All authors are from RMI unless otherwise noted. Contacts Thomas White,tomwhite@rmi.orgEstefania Marchan,emarchan@rmi.org Copyrights and Citation Dhroovaa Khannan, Antoine Lalechere, Mitchell Luti, Christina Pastoria, and Thomas White,The PowerSector Transition in Southeast Asia: A technical reference for financial institutions, RMI, 2025,https://rmi.org/insight/the-power-sector-transition-in-southeast-asia. RMI values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge andinsights. We therefore allow interested parties to reference, share, and cite our work through the CreativeCommons CC BY-SA 4.0 license.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/. All images used are from iStock.com unless otherwise noted. Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank our colleagues at RMI who have contributed to this work. In particular,Jacob Kastl, Aubrey McKinnon, Estefania Marchan, and Nicky Halterman who each played a vital role inshaping the research and ideas presented in this report, and Tyeler Matsuo, Iliad Lubis, and Kaitlin CrouchHess who provided thoughtful review. Disclosures Basic research and identifying sources was carried out with assistance from OpenAI GPT-4o and GPT-5.The same models were also used for light editing and supporting the draft of the executive summary. AllAI-related content was validated by the authors. About RMI Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) is an independent, nonpartisan nonprofit founded in 1982 that transformsglobal energy systems through market-driven solutions to secure a prosperous, resilient, clean energyfuture for all. In collaboration with businesses, policymakers, funders, communities, and other partners,RMI drives investment to scale clean energy solutions, reduce energy waste, and boost access toaffordable clean energy in ways that enhance security, strengthen the economy, and improve people’slivelihoods. RMI is active in over 50 countries. Table of Contents Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 State of the Power Transition in SEA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 What you’ll find in this section. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8How to use this section. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8Carbon emissions in SEA are growing faster than the global average. . . . . . . . . . . .9Emissions growth is driven by rising demand being met with fossil fuels. . . . . . . . . .10Young coal fleets pose a barrier to achieving stated coal retirement goals. . . . . . . . .11National power market structures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12Additional country-level context. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Energy-Transition Pathways. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 What you’ll find in this section. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16How to use this section. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16Regional scenarios and the outlook for the power sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17Nationally determined contributions and power development plans. . . . . . . . . . . .19 The Renewables Project Pipeline in SEA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 What you’ll find in this section. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21How to use this section. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21Renewable energy pipelines lag PDP objectives in many cases. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22Renewable energy pipelines are concentrated in early project stages. . . . . . . . . . . .24Solar and offshore wind dominate the renewables pipeline. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26Fossil fuels remain a significant share of the project pipeline. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 Key Data Sources Used. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32 Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33 Executive Summary The power sector in Southeast Asia (SEA) is central to the region’s economic development anddecarbonization pathway. Accounting for 65% of the emissions reductions needed to meet nationalcommitments, the sector presents both substantial transition risks and major investment opportunities.Yet, clean-energy investment in SEA remains insufficient to align with national and global climate goals. This report provides a technical reference to support financial institutions (FIs) in conducting robusttr