2026-2030年中国柴油消费展望

ChinaDiesel ConsumptionForecast2026-20302026-2030年中国柴油消费展望 何颢昀He Haoyun从业资格号Qualification No：F03100810投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0021074桂晨曦Gui Chenxi从业资格号Qualification No：F3023159投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Abstract摘要 This report analyzes the trends of China’s apparent diesel consumption from 2026 to 2030, adopting twoperspectives:a bottom-up perspective based on heavy-duty trucks (HDT) and a top-down macro perspective. In the first nine months of 2025,China’sapparentdiesel consumption hasmaintaineda downward trend,with total annual consumption in 2025 projected at 185 million tons, mainly due toweakened road transportationdemand.As the key diesel consumer in road transport,HDTsmake up over 40% ofChina's total diesel use. In 2026, the decline rateofChina’sapparentdiesel consumptionis likely tostabilize as2025’s HDT "trade-in" policy pre-empted 2026’s replacement demand, and diesel HDT stock remains resilient amid contractedsubstitution by new energy (NEV) and LNG-powered HDTs.Total apparent diesel consumption for 2026 isestimated at 171-173 million tons. Two forecasting methods (scrappage calculation and macroeconomic data-driven analysis) indicate thatfrom 2026 to 2030,diesel HDT stock will be increasingly squeezed by NEVs and LNG HDTs (2030 salespenetration: 39% for NEVs, 30% for LNG HDTs).With the resulting decrease in HDT ownership volume,China’sdiesel consumption is projected to contract to 100-113 million tons by 2030. Risks:Changes in the sales structure of HDTs; Macroeconomic fluctuations; Policy adjustments. 报告分别从自下而上的重卡视角和自上而下的宏观视角，分析了2026-2030年中国柴油消费趋势。 2025年1-9月中国柴油表观消费同比延续下跌，全年预计达1.85亿吨。核心驱动因素为公路交通柴油消费下滑。而重卡柴油消费占国内柴油总消费的40%，是公路柴油消费的核心支柱。 2026年柴油表观消费降幅或持稳，主要因2025年重卡“以旧换新”政策提前透支2026年更新需求，新能源和LNG重卡可替代量收缩，柴油重卡存量显现韧性，预计2026年柴油消费为1.71-1.73亿吨。 2026-2030年，通过重卡报废测算、宏观数据测算两种方法预测，若柴油重卡存量持续被新能源和LNG重卡挤压（2030年新能源重卡销量渗透率预计达39%，LNG重卡达30%），柴油重卡保有量将逐步下降，带动国内柴油消费向1.0-1.13亿吨区间收缩。 风险因素：重卡销量结构超预期变化，宏观波动，政策调整 Content目录 1. China's Diesel Consumption Review..............................................................................41.1 Peak in Total Volume, Highway Traffic Dominates......................................................................................41.2 Peak in Diesel Heavy-Duty Truck Sales, Partial Substitution by NEV.....................................................52. 2026-2030 Heavy-Duty Truck Ownership Volume Forecast.........................................62.1 Method 1: Scrappage Calculation..................................................................................................................62.2 Method 2: Macroeconomic Data-Driven Analysis........................................................................................82.3 Comparison of the Two Methods.................................................................................................................113. 2026-2030 China's Diesel Consumption Outlook........................................................12Appendix: Chinese Version................................................................................................141.中国柴油需求回顾.............................................................................................................141.1总量达峰，公路交通主导..............................................................................................................................141.2柴油重卡销量达峰，新能源部分替代..........................................................................................................142. 2026-2030年重卡保有量预测............................................................................................162.1方法一：重卡报废测算..................................................................................................................................162.2方法二：宏观数据测算..................................................................................................................................172.3测算数据对比..................................................................................................................................................193. 2026-2030年中国柴油消费展望........................................................................................20 Related Reports近期报告 * Click on the hyperlink of report titles to read historical reports20250929 European Gasoil Crack Spread Outlook欧洲柴油裂解价差展望20251106 US LNG Prices May Rise on Strong Export出口强劲或推升美国气价20251030 Policy Readings on the“15th Five-Year Plan”“十五五”规划建议联合点评 Charts图表 Chart 1: China Diesel Apparent Consumption....................................................................................................4Chart 2: China Diesel Consumption by Sector...................................................................................................4Chart 3: China Heavy Truck Ownership..............................................................................................................5Chart 4: China Heavy Truck Sales by Type.......