白银、铜因供应担忧超越黄金成为首选金属押注

⽩银、铜因供应担忧超越⻩⾦成为⾸选⾦属押注 ⼀公⽄银条。摄影：Angel Garcia/Bloomberg ByDavid MarinoandYvonne Yue Li 作者：David Marino与Yvonne Yue Li December 7, 2025 at 10:30 PM GMT+8 彭博社⼈⼯智能要点 Silver has nearly doubled this year due to a historic supply squeeze in the London market amidsurging demand from India and silver-backed exchange-traded funds. 由于印度需求激增和以⽩银为⽀持的交易所交易基⾦推动，伦敦市场出现历史性供应紧缩，⽩银今年已⼏乎翻倍。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K Silver has outpaced gold of late, gaining more than 11% to a fresh record, while copper hasclimbed almost 9% and is approaching an all-time high. 近期⽩银表现超过⻩⾦，涨幅超过11%并创下新⾼，⽽铜已上涨近9%，正接近历史最⾼点。 Institutional and retail traders are positioning for record rallies in silver and copper, with impliedoptions volatility and trading volumes increasing, amid expectations of supply shortfalls and growing demand for electrification and clean-energy projects. 机构和零售交易者正押注⽩银和铜将迎来创纪录的上涨，隐含期权波动率和交易量均在增加，原因是市场预期供应短缺以及对电⽓化和清洁能源项⽬的需求增⻓。 Silver and copper have replaced gold as the hot metal trade heading into 2026,with institutional and retail traders positioning for record rallies. ⽩银和铜已取代黄⾦，成为进⼊2026年前最热门的⾦属交易，机构和零售交易者正为创纪录的飙升布局。 Silver has nearly doubled this year, with most gains occurring in the past twomonths due to a historic supply squeeze in the benchmark London market amidsurging demand from India and silver-backed exchange-traded funds. While thatcrunch has eased in recent weeks as more metal is shipped to London vaults, othermarkets have seen supply constraints: Chinese inventories are at decade lows.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K ⽩银今年⼏乎翻了⼀番，⼤部分涨幅出现在过去两个⽉，这主要因为在印度需求激增和以⽩银为后盾的交易型开放式指数基⾦推动下，基准伦敦市场出现了历史性的供应紧缩。尽管随着更多⾦属被运往伦敦⾦库，这⼀紧张局势在近期有所缓解，但其他市场仍出现供应限制：中国库存处于⼗年低点。 The silver rally has seen higher volatility, saidEd Meir, an analyst with MarexGroup Inc. “If you look at the chart, there’s been a steeper parabolic move up thanseen in previous rallies. The buying is much more concentrated, and in a muchshorter time frame.” 马雷克斯集团（Marex Group Inc.）分析师埃德·迈尔（Ed Meir）表⽰，⽩银上涨伴随更⾼的波动性。“如果你看图表，这次的上升呈现出⽐以往反弹更陡峭的抛物线式上涨。买盘更加集中，⽽且发⽣在更短的时间内。” Silver ETF volatility, skew spike ⽩银ETF波动率、偏斜飙升 Source: cboe来源：cboeSilver has outpaced gold of late. Since bullion hit a record on Oct. 20, it’s movedmostly sideways, while silver has gained more than 11% to a fresh record andcopper has climbed almost 9%. 近期⽩银跑赢了黄⾦。⾃10⽉20⽇⾦价创纪录以来，⾦价⼤多横盘，⽽⽩银已上涨逾11%⾄新⾼，铜则上涨近9%。 Implied options volatility in theiShares Silver Trust, the biggest ETF tracking themetal, rose last week to the highest since early 2021, when for a brief period silverattracted meme-stock traders. Almost $1 billion flowed into the ETF over the pastweek, exceeding the influx into the largest gold fund and adding further support tospot prices. 跟踪该⾦属的最⼤ETF——iShares Silver Trust（⽩银信托）的隐含期权波动率上周上升⾄⾃2021年初以来的最⾼⽔平，彼时⽩银曾在短期内吸引到表情包股票（meme-stock）交易者。过去⼀周该ETF流⼊近10亿美元，超过了流⼊最⼤黄⾦基⾦的资⾦，并进⼀步⽀撑了现货价格。 Western investors — who have been significantly under-allocated to preciousmetals — have flocked to silver ETFs in recent months, and there’s significant roomfor further inflows as allocation normalizes, saidTrevor Yates, a senior investmentanalyst at Global X ETFs.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 西⽅投资者——在贵⾦属配置上长期显著偏低——近⼏个⽉涌向⽩银ETF，随着配置回归正常化，仍有⼤量资⾦流⼊的空间，Global X ETF的⾼级投资分析师特雷弗·耶茨表⽰。 Options on Comex silver futures have also faced a buying spree amid demand forprotection against wider swings and especially further rallies. Retail traders arepouring into the market — five-day average volume on micro futures contracts is ata level only exceeded in mid-October, CME Group Inc. data show. COMEX⽩银期货期权也因对更⼤波动、尤其是进⼀步上涨的保护需求⽽遭遇抢购。散户交易者⼤量涌⼊市场——CME集团数据显⽰，微型期货合约的五⽇均量处于仅在⼗⽉中旬被超越过的⽔平。 One example of the fervor is lottery-ticket style options: more than 5,000 lots ofComex silver February $80/$85 call spreads — equivalent to 25 million troy ounces— changed hands on Wednesday and Thursday, building up a position to profitfrom a feverish rally to start the new year. 狂热的⼀个例⼦是彩票式期权：周三和周四，有超过5,000⼿COMEX⽩银2⽉80/85美元看涨价差合约成交——相当于2,500万⾦衡盎司——建⽴了⼀个在新年初期从疯狂上涨中获利的头⼨。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K To be sure, higher volatility will need to be fed by further large swings, especiallyto support rallies into uncharted territory. At an 82% premium to its five-yearaverage on Dec. 2, silver is approaching its most extreme year-end deviation fromthis mean since 1979, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategistMikeMcGlonewrote in a note to clients. 当然，更⾼的波动性需要通过更⼤幅度的进⼀步震荡来⽀撑，尤其是要⽀持冲向未知领域的上涨。彭博情报（Bloomberg Intelligence）⾼级商品策略师迈克·麦格隆（Mike McGlone）在给客户的⼀份说明中写道，截⾄12⽉2⽇，⽩银较其五年平均值溢价82%，正接近⾃1979年以来年末相对于该均值最极端的偏离程度。 Where the silver rally ends is hard to pin down, according to Marex’s Meir. 梅雷（Marex）的梅尔表⽰，银价涨势会在哪⾥⽌步很难确定。 “When a chart breaks out like this, there are no resistance signposts,” he said. Thetop “could be $85, could be $60.” “当⼀张图表像这样突破时，就没有阻⼒的指⽰牌，”他说。顶部“可能是85美元，也可能是60美元。”微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K While copper has less of a financial component, the growing demand forelectrification to feed AI data centers as well as clean-energy projects has strategists predic