铜价因花旗看涨展望及供应担忧攀升至纪录高点

铜价因花旗看涨展望及供应担忧攀升⾄纪录⾼点 By Bloomberg News彭博社新闻December 5, 2025 at 11:29 AM GMT+8 Translate翻译 Copper rose to a record, underpinned by a bullish price outlook fromCitigroup Inc. and a loomingsupply-demand imbalance. 在花旗集团发表乐观的价格展望并且供需不平衡迫在眉睫的⽀撑下，铜价升⾄历史⾼位。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K The industrial metal rose as much as 1.2% to $11,581.50 a ton, surpassing a previous high set earlier thisweek. Copper will average $13,000 in the second quarter as metal is stockpiled in the US, creating adeficit elsewhere, according to the base scenario presented by Citi analysts in a note on Friday. 这种⼯业⾦属⼀度上涨最多1.2%，⾄每吨11,581.50美元，超过本周早些时候创下的前⾼。花旗分析师周五在⼀份报告中提出的基准情景显⽰，随着⾦属在美国被囤积，铜价第⼆季度将平均达到13,000美元，这在其他地⽅造成了供给缺⼜。 Traders are anticipating supply dislocations as more metal flows to America ahead of the possibleintroduction of import tariffs. The copper market is set to enter a structural deficitnext year with theshortfall widening over the next decade on robust demand and constrained supply, BloombergNEF saidin a report Thursday. 交易员预计随着更多⾦属在可能实施进⼜关税前流向美国，会出现供给错位。彭博新能源财经（BloombergNEF）周四在⼀份报告中表⽰，铜市明年将进⼊结构性⾚字，由于需求强劲且供应受限，未来⼗年短缺将进⼀步扩⼤。 Preparing itself for such a supply crunch, trading houseMercuria Energy Group Ltd. ordered about $500million of copper for withdrawal from London Metal Exchange warehouses, according to people familiarwith the matter – the biggest cancellation of stock in more than a decade. 为应对这种供应紧缩，据知情⼈⼠透露，贸易公司梅库⾥亚能源集团（Mercuria Energy Group Ltd.）从伦敦⾦属交易所仓库下单提取了约5亿美元的铜——这是⼗多年来最⼤的⼀笔库存取消。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K “We have conviction in copper upside through 2026 supported by multiple bullish catalysts, including anincrementally constructive fundamental and macro backdrop,” the Citi analysts including MaxLayton said. “我们相信铜价将在2026年前上涨，受到多重利多催化因素的⽀撑，包括基本⾯和宏观环境的逐步改善，”包括马克斯·莱顿（Max Layton）在内的花旗分析师表⽰。 Other analysts have issued more conservative outlooks for copper in recent days. While the metal isexpected to remain “volatile” and could easily reach new highs, prices above $11,000 a ton are notsustainable as the global market is not physically tight, Macquarie Group analysts led by PeterTaylor said in a note on Thursday. 其他分析师近⽇对铜价的前景则更为保守。麦格理集团（Macquarie Group）由彼得·泰勒（PeterTaylor）领衔的分析师在周四的⼀份报告中表⽰，尽管预计该⾦属将保持“波动”，并可能轻易创出新⾼，但每吨11,000美元以上的价格不可持续，因为全球市场在实物上并不紧俏。 Copper inventories at global exchanges have spiked to over 656,000 tons, the highest since 2018, witharound two-thirds held in warehouses under Comex in the US. Macquarie’s viewechoed caution fromGoldman Sachs Group Inc. earlier this week, which doesn’t expect a coppershortage until 2029. 全球交易所的铜库存已飙升⾄超过656,000吨，为2018年以来的最⾼⽔平，其中约三分之⼆储存在美国的COMEX下属仓库。麦格理的观点呼应了⾼盛集团（Goldman Sachs Inc.）本周早些时候的谨慎态度，⾼盛不预计铜短缺会在2029年前发⽣。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K