最狂热的 AI 泡沫现于能源股领域

Concept stocks with no revenue have soaring valuations没有营收的概念股估值却节节攀升 OpenAI⾸席执⾏官Sam Altman投资的零收⼊能源公司Oklo。摄影：KYLE GRILLOT/BLOOMBERG Forget about the froth in tech valuations. The real excess might be building up in energy stocks. 别再盯着科技股估值泡沫了。真正的过度膨胀可能正在能源股中酝酿。 For all the fears about stretched technology shares, many of those companies are hugely profitable ones that will keep chugging along even ifthe artificial-intelligence boom doesn’t have legs. Not so in the energy sector. A group of non-revenue-generating energy companies havecollectively ballooned in value to more than $45 billion in hopes that tech companies will one day pay for their yet-to-be-built power. 尽管⼈们对科技股估值过⾼的担忧不断，但其中许多公司盈利丰厚，即使⼈⼯智能热潮消退也能持续运转。能源板块则截然不同——⼀批尚未产⽣收⼊的能源公司总市值已膨胀⾄逾450亿美元，只因市场押注科技公司终将为它们尚未建成的电⼒设施买单。 The biggest of these is the OpenAI CEO Sam Altman-backed nuclear startupOklo, whose shares have risen about eightfoldyear to date. The company now has a market cap of roughly $26 billion, making it the biggest U.S.-incorporated public company thatgenerated no revenue in the past 12 months, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.OKLO-0.54% 其中规模最⼤的是由OpenAI⾸席执⾏官萨姆·奥特曼⽀持的核能初创公司Oklo（代码OKLO-0.11%），其股价今年以来已上涨约⼋倍。根据标普全球市场财智的数据，该公司⽬前市值约260亿美元，成为过去12个⽉零营收却在美注册上市的规模最⼤上市公司。 Oklo is developing small modular nuclear reactors that use a non-water coolant—liquid metal sodium—and an enriched type of uranium fuelthat is in limited supply. It doesn’t yet have a license from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission or binding contracts with powerpurchasers. Wall Street analysts don’t expect the company to generate substantial revenue until 2028.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 奥克洛公司正在研发⼩型模块化核反应堆，采⽤⾮⽔冷却剂——液态⾦属钠，以及供应有限的浓缩铀燃料。该公司尚未获得美国核管理委员会的许可证，也未与电⼒采购⽅签订具有约束⼒的合同。华尔街分析师预计该公司在2028年前不会产⽣可观收⼊。 Another zero-revenue company isFermi, which was valued at roughly $19 billion upon its public debut earlier this month.Only two other no-revenue companies had larger market caps than Fermi on their first day of trading after an IPO, adjusted for inflation,according to Jay Ritter, finance professor at the University of Florida. These are EV-makerRivian, which went public in 2021, and Corvis, anFRMI-8.52% optical network equipment maker that went public during the dot-com bubble. 另⼀家零收⼊公司是Fermi FRMI-8.66%，本⽉早些时候上市时的估值约为190亿美元。根据佛罗⾥达⼤学⾦融学教授杰伊·⾥特的说法，经通胀调整后，只有另外两家零收⼊公司在⾸次公开募股（IPO）⾸⽇的市值超过了Fermi。这两家公司分别是2021年上市的电动汽车制造商Rivian，以及在互联⽹泡沫时期上市的光⽹络设备制造商Corvis。 The company is backed by former energy secretary Rick Perry and helmed by Toby Neugebauer, the former chief executive ofthe failed anti-woke bank startup GloriFi. It has plans to build out 11 gigawatts worth of power for data centers, roughly the amount of capacity in NewMexico. Though its shares haven’t sustained their initial pop after listing, the company still commands a market capitalization of over $17billion. That isn’t too far from the valuation ofTalen Energy, a company that already owns an operating power fleet of about 11GW. 该公司得到了前能源部长⾥克·佩⾥的⽀持，并由曾执掌已倒闭的反觉醒银⾏初创企业GloriFi的⾸席执⾏官托⽐·诺伊格鲍尔领导。该公司计划为数据中⼼建设总装机容量达11吉⽡的电⼒设施，⼤致相当于新墨西哥州的发电总量。尽管其股价在上市后未能维持最初的飙升，但公司市值仍超过170亿美元。这与已拥有约11吉⽡运营发电资产的泰伦能源公司的估值相去不远。 Fermi plans to meet that 11GW target using natural gas, nuclear, solar and battery power. It has a way to go: So far, it has secured natural-gasequipment that would cover just 5% of its total capacity goal. The company hasn’t lined up any binding customer contracts. 费⽶公司计划利⽤天然⽓、核能、太阳能和电池电⼒来实现11吉⽡的⽬标。但仍有很长的路要⾛：迄今为⽌，该公司仅确保了可覆盖总容量⽬标5%的天然⽓发电设备，且尚未签订任何具有约束⼒的客户合同。 Companies developing even smaller “micro-modular” nuclear reactors are also commanding hefty market caps despite their lack of revenue.Shares ofNano Nuclear Energy, which made its debut on the public markets last year, have more than doubled so far thisyear. The company is valued at more than $2 billion.Terra Innovatum, which went public last week through a SPACmerger, is valued at over $1 billion.NNE-3.55%NKLR10.68%微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 开发更⼩型"微型模块化"核反应堆的企业同样获得了⾼额市值，尽管它们尚未产⽣收⼊。去年才登陆公开市场的Nano Nuclear Energy(NNE-3.32%)股价今年迄今已翻倍有余，公司估值超过20亿美元。上周通过SPAC合并上市的Terra Innovatum(NKLR11.08%)估值也超过10亿美元。 Others swept up in the AI excitement generate revenue but aren’t expected to turn a profit for many years. Such companies includenuclearsmall modular reactorscompanyNuScale Power, which earns some engineering and licensing fees for an SMRproject in Romania. Its shares have surged 155% so far this year. Hydrogen fuel-cell companyPlug Power’sshares, whichhad been in the gutter for many years, surged 90% this year to $4.8 billion on AI excitement. Neither company is expected to turn a profit until2030, according to Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet.SMR-9.09%PLUG-2.19% 其他被⼈⼯智能热潮席卷的企业虽能创造营收，但预计多年内难以实现盈利。这类公司包括⼩型模块化反应堆企业SMR-8.84%，该公司通过罗马尼亚的SMR项⽬获得部分⼯程及许可费⽤，其股价年内已飙升155%。氢燃料电池企业PLUG-2.30%的股票在沉寂多年后，受AI概念驱动今年暴涨90%，市值达48亿美元。根据FactSet调查的华尔街分析师预测，这两家企业⾄少要到2030年才可能实现盈利。 Arguably, more commercial interest might be just what was needed to help expensive or unproven technologie