比亚迪 vs 丰田：比亚迪能否成为下一个丰田？

BYD vs. Toyota: Can BYD become the next Toyota? BYD is the largest electric vehicle manufacturer, while Toyota leads globally inpassenger vehicles.BYD’s revenues and profits are about one-third and one-quarter of Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Toyota’s, respectively, but it is growing much faster. We project BYD to reach US$138bn inrevenues and US$9bn in EBIT in 2026, vs. Toyota’s US$359bn and US$32bn. This is basedon our expected 2025-2026 volume growth of 18% for BYD compared to 4% for Toyota,and operating profit growth of 43% versus Toyota’s 18% YoY. Masahiro Akita+81 3 6777 6998masahiro.akita@bernsteinsg.com BYD’s market cap is much lower than Toyota’s; despite a higher P/E, it appearsundervalued on PEG.BYD’s market cap is about 38% of Toyota’s. It trades at a higher 1- Mika Fu+852 2166 4805mika.fu@bernsteinsg.com year forward P/E of 16.8x versus Toyota’s 12.3x, but this premium does not fully captureBYD’s faster growth. Based on PEG over 3-year CAGR, BYD appears undervalued at 0.5xcompared to Toyota’s 1.1x.Can BYD reach Toyota’s market cap?Two questions arise: Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com 1) Can BYD approach a “Toyota-like” global scale?BYD is poised for global EV growthwith rapid overseas expansion. While growth prospects are strong in Europe, LATAM,ASEAN, Oceania, and MENA, markets like Japan, Korea, the U.S., and South Asia facechallenges from local competition and geopolitics. BYD is expected to stabilize at 4–5 mnunits in China. The TAM outside China is about 30 mn units. Capturing high single-digitshares in Europe, 30–40% in ASEAN and LATAM, and 20–30% in Oceania and the Middle Tomohiro Kashimoto+81 3 6777 6975tomohiro.kashimoto@bernsteinsg.com 2) Can BYD narrow its profit gap?Key factors are boosting profit per vehicle and growingother businesses like financial services and external battery sales. BYD’s export vehiclesare 3–4x more profitable than domestic ones. Its financial services, though currently small,have strong overseas growth potential, with margins potentially exceeding automotive, asseen with Toyota’s 40% gross margin in this segment. External battery sales, including to We rate BYD Outperform.BYD’s overseas volume is rapidly expanding, which is crucialfor closing its profitability gap and approach a “Toyota-like” global scale. For 2025, BYD ison track to more than double overseas sales and reach close to c.1mn units, with stronggrowth in Europe (+470% yoy in 2025 1H), ASEAN (+140%), and Latin America (+65%). Inthe near term, further growth is expected to be driven by more PHEV exports. We estimate We rate Toyota Outperform.While Toyota may trail in growth momentum, it alreadyranks among the top OEMs for profitability and return on capital. The company is poisedto elevate its business quality even further and is aiming to reach a 20% ROE target. Keydrivers include accelerating HEV sales, launching next-generation BEVs, expanding valuechain profits, reshaping business and capital structures within the Toyota Group followingthe buyout of Toyota Industries, and boosting shareholder returns through share buybacks. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate BYD Outperform, with a target price of HK$130.BYD’s overseas volume is rapidly expanding, which is crucial forclosing its profitability gap and approach a “Toyota-like” global scale. For 2025, BYD is on track to more than double overseassales and reach close to c.1mn units, with strong growth in Europe (+470% yoy in 2025 1H), ASEAN (+140%), and LatinAmerica (+65%). In the near term, further growth is expected to be driven by more PHEV exports. The 2025 volume growth wasprimarily supported by the Song Plus DM-i (A-segment SUV). Additionally, BYD has begun exporting other models, includingthe Seal 05/06/07 (A-B segment sedans), Sealion 05/06/07 (A-B segment SUVs), and Fang Cheng Bao off-road SUVs. We We rate Toyota Outperform, with a target price of ¥3,800.While Toyota may trail emerging players like BYD in growthmomentum, it already ranks among the top in the automotive industry for profitability and return on capital. The company ispoised to elevate its business quality even further. As the largest market cap company in Japan and often referred to “JapanInc.,” all eyes will be on Toyota’s journey to reach a 20% ROE target. Key drivers fueling this progress include accelerating HEVsales through its multi-pathway strategy, the upcoming full-scale launch of next-generation BEVs, expanding value chain profits,reshaping business and capital structures within the Toyota Group following the buyout of Toyota Industries, and boosting DETAILS BYD VS. TOYOTA: HOW DO THE LARGEST ELECTRIC VEHICLE AND PASSENGER VEHICLE BYD is the largest electric vehicle manufacturer and Toyota is the largest passenger vehicle manufacturer globally. BYDis about one-third the size of Toyota across revenues and one-quarter of profit dollars, but growing significantly faster. Sales volume:BYD shipped 4.3mn units in 20