中国真的在“低消费”吗？迷思与真相

Is China still under-consuming? Myth vs.truth Industry Overview Stats speak! China is NOT that under-consuming 24 November 2025 Investors believing in China’s under-consumption may struggle to explain the weaknesssince 2022, though China is still one of the world’s fastest growing major economies.In our view, nominal value comparisons only tell part of the story. Our quantitative studyreveals two facts. 1) China’s per capita volume consumption is comparable to globalpeers, not only in goods but also in core services. Counter-intuitively, China exceeds theUS, Japan and South Korea in per capita consumption of proteins, eggs, seafood andvegetables. China’s per capita residential floor space is above many developed countries.2) The under-consumption perception stems from low pricing (for structural and cyclicalreasons) and lagging discretionary services. China’s pricing is below the global averagein most categories (esp. for services) and can be <40% of the US in many cases. EquityChinaConsumer Equity ResearchChen Luo, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 2009chen.luo@bofa.com Ming Hsun Lee, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 5006minghsun.lee@bofa.com Macro view: some upside, though not that seemingly bigAnother argument in favor of China’s under-consumption points to China’s household Alex Liu>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 5090alex.liu3@bofa.com consumption/GDP of c.40%, < the US (68%), Japan (54%) and South Korea (48%). In ourview, developed North Asia is a better peer to China. Adding c.7% from social transfersin kind (goods & services provided by the government, e.g. social security benefits) toalign with OECD definitions brings China almost on par with South Korea and narrowsthe gap with Japan. That said, there could still be some upside, particularly in higher-quality and experience-based services or goods. This includes categories like preventivehealthcare, leisure, entertainment and pursuit of“dopamine consumption”. Joyce Ju>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 3371joyce.ju@bofa.com Ronald Leung, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 3728ronald.leung@bofa.com Corporate China: E2SG opportunitiesNarratives of already high volumes yet low prices may paint a seemingly gloomy picture for Corporate China. We do not think so. The era of beta-driven growth is gone, but“E2SG”alpha-growth opportunities still abound. By our definition, E2SG = Efficiency,Experience, Service & Global. Efficiency means lowest cost / fastest speed in a low-pricing environment to win shares. Experience and Service enable penetrationupside/share gains or justify premium pricing. Lastly, going global is a viable option, ifthe global market offers better volumes and pricing than China. Harry Zhuang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7998harry.zhuang@bofa.com Alice Ma>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 8752alice.ma@bofa.com Jonas Yang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 5834jonas.yang@bofa.com Universe of single stocks: our cross-sector picksTop-down analysis may correspond to single stocks across sectors. Hence, in partnership with our economists, BofA China Consumer, Internet, Gaming & Lodging, Tech and Autoteams join hands together, to pick stocks fitting into E2SG themes. Our thematic picksinclude Pop Mart, Midea, Geely, H World, Trip.com, Tencent and Damai (see ourDamaiinitiation). These names normally tick 2-3 boxes of“Efficiency, Experience, Service &Global”. Though some may face near-term issues (such as tough comps for Midea in1H26), we believe they are long-term winners leveraging structural E2SG opportunities. Fiona Liang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 4390fiona.liang3@bofa.com EconomicsAnna ZhouChina & Asia EconomistMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 3909anna.zhou@bofa.com Helen QiaoChina & Asia EconomistMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 3961helen.qiao@bofa.comSee Team Page for List of Analysts >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 42 to 45. Analyst Certification on page 36. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 34.12905369 Related research Contents Exhibit1: China’s per capita volume consumption is high among global peers, but its pricing is below the global average in most categories–partly due toits status as the world’s factory, as well a