中国汽车/机器人行业考察——初步印象

Global | Autos & Auto Parts China Auto/Robotics trip - First impressions After 5 days meeting investors and corporates in Hong Kong, Shenzen andGuangzhou, across OEMs, Robotaxis, Humanoids and eVTOL, ending at theGuangzhou Auto show, we are left energized by innovation and concerned Auto OEMs: Demand and Local content -Across all meetings, management teams wereconcerned about the strength of domestic demand. Current incentives continued to acceleratethe replacement of ICEVs with NEVs this year, but failed to support mix as consumers still tradeddown to price levels below RMB 100k. The next round of support under discussion should bea lower amount but could also steer demand towards higher local content such as China-madechips. At a time when EU regulators have yet to regulate local content or define what "zero-emission" may mean in 2035, Chinese OEMs continue to plan more launches and appear to Investor and expert meetings- Most investor meetings centered around the progress of Chinesebrands in Europe and of autonomous driving technology, including lidar, HD mapping and Tesla.Limited discussions on specific stocks, mainly the reshaping of market shares in Europe and mostlycautious views about further downside to BMW and MBG market shares in China. We found low Robotaxis -We experienced two smooth multi-km driverless rides around Guangzhou with WeRideand Pony-ai, the latter at dusk, under light rain and at rush-hour. In both cases driving andacceleration were smooth and confident, as were merging into traffic and avoiding cycles andvehicles veering off-lane. Neither had a human operator on-board and both rely on Lidar, leavingTesla and XPeng as technology outliers even as LiDAR costs have declined towards RMB1-2k($150-300). WeRide highlighted the UAE region as the most ambitious in rolling out fleets and easingregulations (besides the US), overseas gross margin potential 2x China's (due to competition; vs US Philippe Houchois * | Equity Analyst 44 (0) 20 7029 8983 | philippe.houchois@jefferies.com Johnson Wan ^ | Equity Analyst852 3743 8083 | johnson.wan@jefferies.com Xiaoyi Lei ^ | Equity Analyst852 3767 1126 | xiaoyi.lei@jefferies.com Humanoids -It feels like all technologies, from LiDAR to optical recognition and actuators areconverging into an explosion of robotic development even as large-scale applications remain ill-defined. Dobot, XPeng and Robosense stood out in demonstrating dexterity with 22 degrees offreedom hand movements. According to an expert guest, LiDAR in mechanical, solid-state or hybrid- Vanessa Jeffriess ‡ | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7548 4123 | vjeffriess@jefferies.com Aaron Wang ^ | Equity Analyst+852 3767 1121 | aaron.wang@jefferies.com Michael Aspinall ‡ | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7029 8431 | maspinall@jefferies.com Owen Paterson ‡ | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7548 4745 | opaterson@jefferies.com Low altitude -We witnessed 2 demonstrations of eVTOL, notably EHang, the only manufacturerapproved to-date for pilot-less human transport. As part of China's planning ambitions, 15 cities havedeveloped a roadmap for a low-altitude economy. EHang reported 10k flights and 140k unit sales inH1:25 for its 2-seater EHang 216-S, largely for tourism applications (600kgs o/w 50% battery, ~$400k Auto OEM comments upgraded God's Eye AV features in a deflationary environment. BYD also acknowledged excessSKUs created internal competition but still expects to launch 5-6 BYD-branded models in 2026 toregain share. Valuation could also be impaired by insufficient disclosure, for example on energystorage (estimated #5 globally) and concerns about account payables, although current cash Europe remains a strategic priority, although we note press reports of reduced production ramp XPeng's spread of business is the closest to Tesla's at this stage. XPeng expects to movefrom Level 2 to Level 4 autonomy in the course of 2026 with vehicles including 4 Turing chips.Continued relationship with and payments from VW should keep gross margin ~20% in comingquarters, also helped by further growth in International sales (50 markets and start of assembly entry-level A10 and sportier versions under Lafa. Overseas expansion should lead to 100-150kunits targeted in 2026 (~20k in H1 2025) driven by 12k orders in October and 15k projected inNovember. Stellantis assembly of B-series started in Malaysia and will continue in Spain in H2:26with the start of some revenue recognition from components. Gross margin should remain ~15% suppliers as well as STLA's manufacturing capability• From expert discussions we noted comments on stricter government control on advertisingclaims and door handle issues have seen Xiaomi orders decline from 1,500 to 50/month while All photos by Jefferies Nio's Firefly - swappable battery Leapmotor's Lafa5 Robosense - 22 degrees of freedom XPeng XPeng EHang - EH216-S Company Valuation/Risks For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit o