2025智能体、机器人与人类：AI时代的人机技能协作研究报告

AuthorsLareina YeeAnu MadgavkarSven Smit Confidential and proprietary. Any use ofthis material without specific permission of Copyright © 2025 McKinsey & Company.All rights reserved.Cover image © XH4D/Getty Images. McKinsey Global Institute The McKinsey Global Institute was established in 1990. Our mission is to provide a fact base toaid decision making on the economic and business issues most critical to the world’s companiesand policy leaders. We benefit from the full range of McKinsey’s regional, sectoral, and functional Our research is currently grouped into five major themes: —Productivity and prosperity: Creating and harnessing the world’s assets most productively —Resources of the world: Building, powering, and feeding the world sustainably —Human potential: Maximizing and achieving the potential of human talent —Global connections: Exploring how flows of goods, services, people, capital, and ideas —Technologies and markets of the future: Discussing the next big arenas of value and competition We aim for independent and fact-based research. None of our work is commissioned or funded byany business, government, or other institution; we share our results publicly free of charge; and weare entirely funded by the partners of McKinsey. While we engage multiple distinguished externaladvisers to contribute to our work, the analyses presented in our publications are MGI’s alone, and You can find out more about MGI and our research atwww.mckinsey.com/mgi. MGI directors MGI partners Sven Smit (chair)Chris BradleyKweilin EllingrudSylvain Johansson Mekala KrishnanAnu MadgavkarJan Mischke Contents At a glance3Introduction4 CHAPTER 1The workforce of the future will be a partnershipof people, agents, and robots7 CHAPTER 2Human skills will evolve, not disappear, aspeople work closely with AI21 CHAPTER 3Entire workflows can be reimagined aroundpeople, agents, and robots35 CHAPTER 4Leadership is crucial as agents and robotsreshape work and the economy52 Glossary of terms55Acknowledgments56Endnotes57 At a glance —Work in the future will be a partnership between people, agents, and robots—all poweredby AI.Today’s technologies could theoretically automate more than half of current US workhours. This reflects how profoundly work may change, but it is not a forecast of job losses.Adoption will take time. As it unfolds, some roles will shrink, others grow or shift, while new —Most human skills will endure, though they will be applied differently.More than 70 percentof the skills sought by employers today are used in both automatable and non-automatable work.This overlap means most skills remain relevant, but how and where they are used will evolve. —Our new Skill Change Index shows which skills will be most and least exposed toautomation in the next five years.Digital and information-processing skills could be most —Demand for AI fluency—the ability to use and manage AI tools—has grown sevenfold in twoyears,faster than for any other skill in US job postings. The surge is visible across industries and —By 2030, about $2.9 trillion of economic value could be unlocked in the United States—iforganizations prepare their people and redesign workflows, rather than individual tasks, around Introduction Work in the futurewill be a partnership between people, agents, and robots—all powered byartificial intelligence. While much of the current public debate revolves around whether AI will leadto sweeping job losses, our focus is on how it will change the very building blocks of work—theskills that underpin productivity and growth. Our research suggests that although people may In this research, we use “agents” and “robots” as broad, practical terms to describe all machinesthat can automate nonphysical and physical work, respectively. Many different technologiesperform these functions, some based on AI and others not, with the boundaries between themfluid and changing. Using the terms in this expansive way lets us analyze how automation reshapes This report builds on McKinsey’s long-running research on automation and the future of work.Earlier studies examined individual activities, while this analysis also looks at how AI will transformentire workflows and what this means for skills. New forms of collaboration are emerging, creating Although the analysis focuses on the United States, many of the patterns it reveals—and theirimplications for employers, workers, and leaders—apply broadly to other advanced economies. We find that currently demonstrated technologies could, in theory, automate activities accountingfor about 57 percent of US work hours today.2This estimate reflects the technical potential forchange in what people do, not a forecast of job losses. As technologies take on more complexsequences of tasks, people will remain vital to make them work effectively and to do what machines AI will not make most human skills obsolete, but it will change how they are used. We estimate thatmore than 70