2026年日本经济展望：负责任且积极的财政政策（RPFP）——附详细GDP和CPI预测表（2025年三季度GDP后）

2026 Japan Economics Outlook| Japan RPFP (Responsible andProactive Fiscal Policy):Updated with Detailed GDP andCPI Forecast Tables Attached Masayuki InuiEconomist +81 3 6836-5407 Under our global assumption of resilient global growth, Japan'snominal GDP growth should remain solid. We expect inflation tofall below 2% in 2026, but a shift in fiscal policy stance togradually raise inflation, resulting in the policy rate reaching Key Takeaways Fiscal shift to support nominal GDPFocus on domestic investment and national security A one-page version of the following text was published as a part of MorganStanley's semi-annual global outlook (2026 Global Economics Outlook: Atthe Crossroads) before the release of Japan's Jul-Sep GDP report. We have For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of this report. RPFP (Responsible and Proactive Fiscal Policy) Fiscal shift to support nominal GDP PM Sanae Takaichi has pledged a "responsible and proactive" fiscal policy (RPFP). WithJapan’s nominal GDP recovering after years of stagnation, higher tax revenues haveimproved the fiscal balance, creating room for moderate fiscal expansion. Takaichi This shift in fiscal stance should underpin domestic demand and, with a lag, gradually liftunderlying inflation. By 2027, we expect nominal GDP growth to gain momentum. Manyoverseas investors take into account the high correlation between equity prices and Japan’s economy temporarily stalled in 3Q (Jul-Sep) 2025, but sentiment-based leadingindicators are improving, and we expect a return to a moderate growth path from 4Q2025. While we project the headline CPI will fall below 2% in 1H 2026, we see nominalwages continuing to grow firmly at around 3% on the back of structural labor shortages.Alongside an improvement in real wages, we expect private consumption to gradually Focus on domestic investment and national security While some household support measures—such as abolishing the temporary gasoline tax,winter energy subsidies, and inflation-adjusted increases in income tax deductions—areexpected, the core of RPFP will center on domestic investment and national security. driven structural labor shortages and the tax support measures. In addition, government-designated strategic growth sectors—17 areas including AI and semiconductors—areexpected to see budget increases. Some of these may be classified under broader security- Recent related reports: Japan Economics: Media Report on Nomination of Wakatabe and Nagahama toCEFP: Potentially Impactful (6 Nov 2025) Japan Economics: 17 Priority Investment Areas: Focus on Concrete Discussions inthe Growth Strategy Council (4 Nov 2025) Japan Economics: Japan-US Summit: Toward a “New Golden Age” (29 Oct 2025) Japan Economics: Takaichi Cabinet: Investor Concerns over Fiscal Expansion Appear Japan Economics: Takaichi Wins LDP Presidential Election: Potential PolicyImplications (5 Oct 2025) Underlying inflation to resume gradual rise after pause Recent inflation has been driven by food prices, including rice, but we expect its year-on-year growth to stabilize ahead, mainly due to the base effect. Combined with the removalof the provisional gasoline tax, Japan’s core CPI (excluding fresh food) is likely to dip below However, as real wages improve and private consumption recovers, we expect strongerpass-through of labor costs into service prices. The shift in fiscal stance will also addtailwinds. From 2H 2026 through 1H 2027, we expect core inflation and underlying Recent related reports: Japan Economics: Rengo to Demand an Overall Wage Hike of More than 5% (23 Japan Economics: October Tokyo Preliminary CPI: Weighted Median Stays in a Flat Japan Economics: September Monthly Labour Survey: Actual Wage Growth Trend BoJ pauses at 0.75% but resumes rate hikes in 2027 Following the Bank of Japan (BoJ)'s October Monetary Policy Meeting, we revised our basecase and now expect a rate hike to 0.75% in December 2025. Given BoJ’s estimate of thelowest range of the nominal neutral rate at around 1%, the projected temporary dip in CPI That said, as inflation gradually turns upward, we forecast additional hikes in January andJuly 2027, bringing the policy rate to 1.25% by end-2027. At the interim review of the JGB purchase reduction plan scheduled for the June 2026meeting, it is likely that the monthly purchase amount from April 2027 onward will be We expect global growth to have an unusually wide range of possible outcomes in 2026,with the US remaining the key swing factor. Given the two-sided uncertainty surroundingthe US economic outlook, our latest global economic outlook discusses three riskscenarios: a downside case where the US falls into mild recession, and two upside cases— As for Japan-specific risks, if the yen were to depreciate significantly in 2026—contrary toour FX team’s outlook—upside risks to our CPI forecast would increase due to higherimport prices and rising inflation expectation