私募股权中的价值创造：缩小MOIC差距

Closing the MOIC Gap OurApproach WE’VE PARTNERED WITH GAIN.PRO TO EVALUATE HOW PRIVATEEQUITY CREATES VALUE TODAY AND WHAT RELIABLY SEPARATES We then triangulated the data against clientwork and practitioner perspectives to groundthe findings in what is working in real deals. Drawing on Gain.pro’s global dataset of10,000+ investments and exits, we usedShapley decomposition to attribute value ExecutiveSummary PRIVATE EQUITY IS WORKINGTHROUGH A LIQUIDITY SQUEEZE.FUNDRAISING HAS TIGHTENED, EXITSHAVE SLOWED, AND THE INDUSTRY’S The asset class remains attractive over the long run,but the velocity of capital has dropped. Financial-engineering tailwinds have faded, higher base rates andevolving credit markets have reduced the contributionof leverage to equity returns, while market-wide multiple That gap is bridgeable. Our synthesis of the data andrecent deal experience points toward a clear centerof gravity – revenue growth – not just cost takeout – isthe primary driver of value creation, and the best pathto a higher exit multiple. Margin work still matters, but Margin work stillmatters, but it performsbest when it makesthe business easier Fund design also influences outcomes. Lower‑marketand lower-volume programs show higher average upsidewith wider dispersion; upper-market and higher-volumeprograms tend to be steadier but less explosive.Sector specialization, or generalist teams with sectorized State of Play inPrivate Equity: PRIVATE EQUITY’S CURRENT RHYTHM IS DEFINED BY A LIQUIDITYBOTTLENECK: MONEY CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE ASSETCLASS, BUT IS RECYCLING SLOWLY. FUNDRAISING HAS COOLED That combination pulls through to everything GPsare experiencing day-to-day – more competitionfor attractive assets, longer deployment In short, capital is there, but it is harderto recycle, so the onus shifts to demonstrablevalue creation earlier in the hold to CAPITAL FORMATION IS ON A DOWNWARD TREND FOLLOWING 2021 HIGHS, WITH LPSDIRECTING THEIR ALLOCATION TOWARDS FUNDS WITH A DEMONSTRABLE TRACK RECORD Global PE Capital Raised & Funds Closed ($b, 000s) 1.Capital Formation: Fundraising is slowing asLP liquidity tightens, and commitments areconsolidating behind managers with reliableDPI and visible routes to exit. Over the lastfive years, global PE capital raised has fallen~25%, returning to 2015–2016 levels. 3.Capital Deployment: Deal value hasrecovered from the trough that followed2021’s all-time highs, yet it remains belowpeak levels. Over the last decade, globalbuyout deal value has grown at ~4% CAGR,but higher interest rates since 2021 haveconstrained leverage capacity and reset 2.Asset Base: Despite fundraising pressure,the long-term health of the asset poolremains intact. Global buyout AUM hasgrown at roughly a 10% CAGR over the lastdecade, reflecting consistent committedcapital and the maturing of private markets. 4.Liquidity:The crux of the fundraisingchallenge is liquidity. Exit value is down from2021 highs but broadly stable versus longer-term averages; the issue is exits relative tothe size of the asset base. For the last threeyears, the exit‑to‑AUM ratio has sat below thetypical 15–20% range, and the last two years The shift is away from financialengineering and toward businessbuilding – larger, faster-growing,more underwritable cash flows. In this context, assets that can prove premiumvalue attract capital. The shift is away fromfinancial engineering and toward businessbuilding – larger, faster-growing, more LIQUIDITY ISSUES HAVE BEEN A KEY BARRIER TO FUNDRAISING, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY ADIFFICULT EXIT ENVIRONMENT EXTENDING HOLD PERIODS AND DELAYING DISTRIBUTIONS Global Exit-to-AUM ratio, 2015-24 (%)Global Buyout Exit Value / Global PE AUM Recent Returns HaveStagnatedRelative THE RETURN PICTURE MIRRORS THE FUNDRAISING DYNAMICS:CAPITAL IS ABUNDANT BUT SLOWER-MOVING, AND BUYERSARE MORE SELECTIVE. PRIVATE EQUITY STILL OUTPERFORMS Second, the financial‑engineering levers thatmagnified returns in the last cycle are lesspotent. Multiples have stalled since 2021 atelevated levels, which limits further beta-driven Median MOIC has pulled back from the2019–21 highs, revealing a gap that is smallin absolute terms but meaningful in what it says Headwinds have shifted from cyclical to structural.Two long-term forces are at work here that havebeen evident for over a decade but continueto accelerate. First, as the industry has matured, In this environment, the deals that win are theones where sponsors can credibly change the Most “tricks” that once flattered earningswithout building durable value – short-termpricing pushes, under-resourced cost programsand aggressive add-backs – are now quickly Near-term pressure will likely build before iteases. The MOIC gap that has opened, circa~0.3x versus the 2019–21 period, is likely togrow for the next couple of exit cohorts. Manycompanies due to come to market over thenext 12–24 months were acquired at or nearthe 2021 peak. With multiples largely flat sincethen, t