银行资本文件：Opportunities in AT1 and T2

CMBI Credit Commentary Bank Capital Papers: Opportunities in AT1 and T2 Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk Asian AT1 & T2offerhigher return predictability InAsian AT1 space, we maintain buy onNOMURA 7 Perp.At the same time, weinitiate buy onBBNIIJ 4.3 Perpwhich, in our view, offers goodrelative valueinthe space.In Asian T2 space,we maintain buy onBBLTB 3.466 09/23/36,BBLTB 6.056 03/25/40,CHIYBK 5.75 04/07/32andKBANK 3.343 10/02/31onmore appealingrisk-return profiles. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk On the other hand, we changed recommendations onCHIYBK 8 Perp,KBANK 4Perp,SHINFN 2.875 Perp,andWSTP 5 Perpto neutral from buy.Thechangesare more ofvaluation considerationsinstead of concerns on non-call. See Table As we have been arguing,capital papers of European banks offer better YTCbutcapital papers of Asian banks offer more predictablereturn through highercertainty of call and coupon distributions. Overall, we believe that our Asian AT1and T2picksoffer more attractive yield andhighpredictability of return, given theissuers’ solid capital adequacy, stable dividend policy, as wellastrack records of BBLTB We maintain buy onBBLTB 6.056 03/25/40(first callinMar’35), which offers YTC of 5.6% at 103.1. Its YTC ranksamong the highest in the Asian IG T2 space and trades at a similar level to the longer-dated SUMIBK 5.79607/08/2046 (first call Jul’45). We also maintain buy onBBLTB 3.466 09/23/36, which offersYTC of 5.2% at a lowercash price of 91.4.We expectthatBangkok Bankwillcontinue to redeem its subordinated bonds on the first call As of Dep’25,Bangkok Bank is the largest bank in Thailand by total assets with presence in 14 international markets.We view its loan book is more diversified than its local peers geographically, its international loansaccounted for23% of its total loanbook and that is higher than its peers KBANK (5%) and KTBTB (2%). Bangkok Bank also has Bangkok Bank’s 9M25 results show resilient profitability, stable asset quality and strong capital adequacy. In 9M25,NIM declined to 2.81% from 3.05% in 9M24,in linewith the lower rate environment. The BOT policy rate dropped to1.5-2% during 9M25 compared to 2.5% in 9M24. The cost-to-income ratio fell to 44.7% from 46.3% over the sameperiod on disciplined cost management.Bangkok Bank’s profitability improved despite the margin pressure, with We view Bangkok Bank’s asset quality stabilizedin 3Q25 amid softened tourism and trade-policy uncertainty. The3Q25 credit costs down to c1.5% from c1.6% in 2Q25,as per our estimate. Bangkok Bank’s gross NPL ratio rose to3.3% as of Sep’25 from 3.2% as of Jun’25, mainly due to shrink in loan booksize. During 3Q25, non-performing loandeclined to THB103bn as of Sep’25 from THB106bn as of Jun’25. NPL coverage ratio at 294% as of Sep’25 was ata high level compared to regional peers,albeit lower than that of 334% as of Dec’24. We take comfort in Bangkok Bangkok Bank’s capital buffers remainample with standalone/consolidatedCET1 ratio at 19.6%/18.0%as of Sep’25,respectively,well above the regulatory minimum requirementof8.0%, despite the redemption ofUSD750mn AT1during 3Q25. In our view,Bangkok Bank’s capital position should be sufficient to absorb further asset-qualitynormalization.Furthermore,we view Bangkok Bank has diverse funding sources onshore and offshore, BBNIIJ Despite limited USD AT1 call precedent in Indonesia, we viewBBNIIJ 4.3 Perp(first callinMar’27)offers goodrelative value, supported by Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI)’s state ownership and solid capital adequacy. BBNIIJ 4.3Perp isBNI’sfirst USD AT1issue as well asthe first AT1 issuedin Indonesia.At 97.9, BBNIIJ4.3 Perp is trading atYTC of6.0%.As a state-owned bank, we seeBNI and Indonesian government to havea strong incentive to redeem Additionally, based on current UST rate, the coupon of BBNIIJ 4.3 Perp will be reset to 5yrUST+3.466%, i.e. 7.1%,onthe first call date,notablyincrease from the current 4.3%.We expect BNI to refinance the perpwitha lower cost BNI is60% government-owned,D-SIBandranksthe fourth largest bankin Indonesiaby total assets.BNIreportedsolid capital adequacy and stable profitability in recent years.As of Sep’25, BNI’s CET1 ratio was 18.5% that waswell above the regulatoryminimumrequirement of 8.5%.In 9M25, BNI’s NIM was 3.8%, dropped from4.2% in9M24, due to softening loan yields and higher funding costsfrom elevated competition for deposits. The lower NIMtrend is consistent with other Indonesian banksdue topolicy rate cut by Bank Indonesiawhich has cut125bpsYTD We viewBNI’sasset qualitywasbroadlystable.NPL ratio increasedslightlyto1.96%as ofSep’25from1.97%asofDec’24,ata level in between itspeers Bank Mandiri (1.03%) and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (3.29%).The loan-at-risk ratio was10.3%-10.4%as of Sep’25 andDec’24.NPL coverage ratiowas 222.7%as ofSep’25.In May’25, Fitchupgraded BNI’s rating to BBB from BBB-with stable outlook,reflecting hig